OL Experts: Probability of Becton becoming a Pro Bowl LT?

there are a lot of things i agree with in principle. I think your post is very thoughtful

But i have seen teams consistently find value in lower rounds. Steelers come to mind. Time and again they find talent in mid rounds. It could be luck "fooled by randomness". Or it could be they know how and what to look for akin to what Maximus was saying. They may know what's signal and what's noise. WHat's talent, and what is the residue of the system

I also think some teams are better at some things than others, as you note with Ozzie. All kind of examples of that.

Having said all that, I think Maximus brings up an excellent point that WR in particular is prone to distortion for the reasons he states; and that there are some people who see through the noise (e.g., Steelers) and others who don't (e.g., conisder Lions outside of "once" actually getting a star at #2 with Johnson, but having whiffed high other times)

ANd let's just say our GM is not particularly good at identifying WR talent. Just hypothetically assume that to be true. What's the smart thing to do in that case? Use your high picks hoping that improves your odds of success, or is that stupid throwing away a premium pick. It's a legitimate question. May be wiser to stick to your strengths which may be elsewhere. NO GM is great at picking all positions, to my knowledge

 

Thanks. Your post is very thoughtful and you make some excellent points.

If one can find very good players in a middle or lower round, then one gets great value. I know that by and large, that's the best way to operate, but imo one should never adhere to any one way of doing things in a slavish manner. If one always has to get great value, then more than likely, if the GM can't identify WR talent, that team will never have good WRs. If he can't identify WR talent, he's going to miss on the WRs he drafts whether he drafts them in the 1st round or the 6th round. Sure it hurts less if a 6th round pick doesn't pan out than if a 1st round pick doesn't pan out, but what hurts most of all is not having great WR talent. You may be right that no GM is great at picking all positions, and probably are, since no GM is perfect. If a GM does have an inability to spot talent at a certain position or positions, then imo he needs to hire an underling or two, or a scout or two who can identify talent at that position. If not, your team will always be lacking in talent at that position unless he trades for a proven player at that position or overpays in FA.

I agree that the Steelers seem to be very good at identifying talent in all rounds. I also agree that teams are generally better at some things than others. As important as WRs are in today's game, if one has any hopes of even reaching, much less winning, a SB, then one has to find a way to get topflight WRs.

If Douglas isn't good at identifying WR talent, then we'd better hope that at least one of our scouts are, and that Rex Hogan, Chad Alexander or Jon Carr are, or he'd better hire someone who has a proven eye for WR talent and then listen to them. I think that any smart leader knows his or her own weaknesses, and is honest enough with himself, humble enough, and smart enough, that he hires someone who is strong in the area of his own weakness, so that the "team" (be it in sports or business) doesn't suffer from his lack of expertise in that area. Wasting high draft picks "hoping" to get lucky is not the answer. For that matter, wasting mid-and low-round draft picks in the same manner is not wise, and is not the answer. The answer is hiring someone who has the eye or ability to spot quality WR talent that can help the team.

 

I think what fans have is a form of survivorship bias. They remember the WR who worked because they're sexy, impactful, whereas a OT is just some fat dude pushing people.

Torrey Smith was a second round pick. So Torry doesn't count because he's a second rounder and to extent he counts he actually helps prove Maximus point. Regardless, Cobb picked later he was pretty good; Johnathan Baldwin picked earlier by Chiefs (who we usually tout for WR picks) and he sucked. so not sure what he helps the point

Julio Jones great player 2011/6. Next year Blackmon was picked at 5, one slot higher (epic bust/ouch); year after Tavon Austin at 8 (huge disappointment or worse).

Amari Cooper great player 2015/4. (Now team has to allocate 20 million) Same draft Kevin White at 7 (ouch). Lockett picked in 3d round way better than many picked before him. the next year Coleman, Fuller Doctson Treadwell every WR in the first round -- one can argue none are good or worse. Michael Thomas picked in second round arguably one of the absolute best in the league. Tyreek Hill in the 5th

Calvin Johnson. superstar 2007/2. same draft Tedd Ginn Jr at 7. (bust?) Steve Smith second rounder great; jacoby jones 3d rounder made PB; next year no team picked a WR in first round (I guess they were all dumb and didn't value offense); year after Heyward Bey was first WR picked at 7 (bust); years earlier Detroit same team picked that picked Megatron picked CHarles Rogers at 2003/2 (epic bust) and roy williams 2004/7 (bust?). Maybe the Gods finally had mercy on Lions. Overall picking WR way high for them was painful

Anyway, I look at these examples as further proof of Maximus's point. If you nail it, you win big (e.g., Julio) but there are a lot of tears too; and there are many successes later in the draft. Riskk/Reward seems highly skewed against drafting WR high

One last point, a lot of the picks you have about were way higher than picking at 11. I suspect if you start looking at that range things get even scarier

And regarding the point i made to NC, let's just say JD when being honest with himself is not great eye for WR talent, what's the smart move then? Burn a high pick in the hopes you improve your odds? I wouldn't do that. I would stick to strengths and if anything use FA for WR where you can assess a guy who already has experience in the league and you don't need to speculate as much on his ability to translate his game to NFL level

 

Cancel out Smith for Mark Clayton..i get the 2 raven WRs mixed up.

Kevin White problem has been injuries & as i already stated Blackmon was a character risk.Its about scouting

I’m sorry..i simply dont agree w what you’re saying. The same thing can be said about a number of different positions in terms of finding value later in the draft.

Some teams traditionally scout/ draft WRs well.

Steelers
Packers
Chargers
Falcons
49ers
Cowboys
Eagles
Chiefs
Broncos

And despite this, everyone of these teams have not hesitated from drafting WRs in RD 1 if the value makes sense.What does that say about how they value the position? If they have the secret sauce why use a premium pick?

As for not scouting WRs well? Well there are 2 options.Use a premium pick or do what the Jets have done as well as what you & maximus are suggesting: keep stubbornly trying to make mid round WRs work & continuously field a bottom 5 unit yr after yr.

UFA isnt viable bc you’re vastly overpaying aging second rate talent.Smart teams draft skill to develop in their system.Smarter teams draft skill to develop w their young developing QB.If they get too expensive you can easily trade them to dumb teams like the Jets who cant find WRs on their own.

Ardarius Stewart
Chad Hanson
Cherone peake
Devin Smith
Shaq evans
Jalen Saunders
Jordan white
Scotty Mcknight
Stephen Hill


Which has lead to
Clyde Gates
David Nelson
Greg Salas

whats more important? Being the steelers or solving a long time sore spot thats chronically held us back once & for all? Ideally youd hope to find EVERY position thats a need outside of round 1.That doesnt mean you shy away from someone bc you MIGHT be able to find someone later.Its about scouting.

 

Even the Steelers have used high picks on skill players. Plaxico Burress, Heath Miller, JuJu Smith Schuster, and Chase Claypool were taken in the first 2 rounds. Diontae Johnson was taken in round 3 and he's not chopped liver like Ardarius Stewart was.

 

Troy Edwards was also RD 1.Even Lynn Swann.WRs have been a big part of the steelers historical success.

 

. .I like Becton's chances. . As for Jeudy, .I could see a guy like him getting busted on a weed & weapons-possession charge inside of 2 years. .

.

 

Not trying to disagree because I generally like your posts, but the point about filtering out the injuries and character risks (after the fact) is what is meant by survivorship bias. It's something about the way our brain works and infiltrates all forms of decision making. We emphasize the success stories in our brain more and tend to forget or diminish the others. Sometimes it's even more stark, e.g., when people report returns on the stock market as a whole and exclude the stocks that went completely bust

And I'm not offering to do the statistics but will note that several/many of the teams you note as drafting WR well also do quite well at drafting on the OL. This may be indicative of just being a good scouting department, or it may also support Maximus's point (which I agree with) that the WR success relies on many things -- in this case perhaps a QB who is confident in his protection (not seeing ghosts) and who has time to throw

 

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im lost by the logic here.I respect you but im lost.

To start, in my opinion people remember massive busts just as well as they remember the home run draft pick. Im not denying that their havent been clean WR prospects ala Mike Williams or Rashaun Woods that have busted.But since numbers is large portion of this anti WR movement..its important to point out how many draft picks were bad & we all knew they were bad as soon as the pick was made.Its not revisionist history..these were guys that everyone knew were reaches. Same w Red flagged character guys.Why should blatantly stupid mala per se player procurement Skew how we look at an entire position group? If anything it just shows the way teams value the position & its potential impact.

What does scouting good OL have to do w Teams that scout WRs well seeing no problem w using a premium pick despite being able to find good ones in later rounds?

its a game of balance.Good WRs help a QB & OL.Vice versa.If you need certain things in place for optimal success from WRs so be it.But why does that prevent a team from selecting one in Round 1?

Also whats worse? The list of CLEAN WR busts in round 1 or the Jets WR draft success outside of Round 1 combined w the WR corps theyve fielded since 2011?

Lets forget positional valuevfor a second.Can we talk about how bad the overall position has been for the Jets? They have yet to enter the realm of modern pass oriented football. Seems pretty crucial to have a team that is equipped to play the game as it is currently orchestrated w the rules, schematics & all.Yet team continues to fail or resist.I dont think its optional or a luxury.Its imperative that the Jets fix their passing attack.From QB to OL & sorry to tell you YES WR.The Parcells-esque plan of action over the last 2 decades hasnt cut it & frankly may never work.

Are we seeing the forest through the trees?

 

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. . X .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . . . X. . . . . . . . .X . . . . . . . .X . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . X. . . . . .

All-Pro . . . . . . . . Shit . . .Useless....Sub-par.. .Useless....Shit..... . .Average......... . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . All-Pro
............................................. . . . . . . . . . . .Sam-Undeveloped
................................................... . . . . . ..Le'Veon patient running style behind a shit OT............Average H-Back

 

Actually 2010 was when we had Braylon and Santonio. 2011 was when Santonio laid down and Plaxico was garbage. 2015 was bad but that was FA WR which only lasted 1 year because that isn't how you build a team. I completely agree though. We need receivers. Next year we better take one. Relying on 2 former first round busts to turn it around is also not how you build. Not to mention both are on one year deals and if they do break out they are gone or we overpay.

 

While I definitely agree that we must draft a WR high in next year's draft, and agree that relying on 2 former first-round busts is not the way to build, I don't know that I agree that they are gone or we overpay next year. If they produce at a mid level, they aren't gonna command big $ in FA. Even if one has a break out year, I doubt that he would get big $s based off of basically one season, especially in Doctson's case. They may also see this as a team on the rise, and that they have a place and future here with Sam and the Jets. Either or both could be willing to stay on reasonable deals.

 

I maybe in the minority here but I think it finally clicked for Perriman. He just looked like he finally arrived and maybe it took being around studs like Evans and Godwin or being in a very pass happy offense last year that made him comfortable. I do feel he will be able to continue the upward trend. And if so, I’m sure Joe would talk extension if he’s really balling out in the middle of the year, being how comfortable BP and the FO are with each other.

Doctson he’s a low risk, he’s been injured most his career so if he shows something then that’s all the better. This is where the UDFA’s can really make their mark and Mims of course. With Bellamy and Q done, there’s an opportunity for 2 of these guys to rise up and earn some PT.

 

I’ve wanted to reply to this for a while, I just knew that it would take a bit of time so I had to wait until I was free.
Reggie Brown (515)
Vincent Jackson (757)
Greg Jennings (829)
Sidney Rice (513)
James Jones (651)
Jordy Nelson (780)
DeSean Jackson (947)
Mike Wallace (807)
Golden Tate (789)
Brandon LaFell (700)
Emmanuel Sanders (789)
Eric Decker (727)
Torrey Smith (643)
Randall Cobb (706)
Alshon Jeffrey (834)
Reuben Randle (528)
Mohamed Sanu (563)
TY Hilton (1,075)
Robert Woods (798)
Terrance Williams (563)
Keenan Allen (915)
Jordan Matthews (548)
Davante Adams (866)
Allen Robinson (792)
Jarvis Landry (1,031)
John Brown (715)
Tyler Lockett (768)
Sterling Shepard (716)
Michael Thomas (1,378)
Tyler Boyd (726)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (965)
Cooper Kupp (865)
Chris Godwin (900)
Kenny Golloday (910)
Courtland Sutton (908)
Christian Kirk (650)
Anthony Miller (537)
DJ Chark (591)
Michael Gallup (807)
Deebo Samuel (802)
AJ Brown (1,051)
Mecole Hardman (538)
DK Metcalf (900)
Diontae Johnson (680)
Terry McLaurin (919)

Each of these 45 players is an impactful WR taken in round 2-3 since 2005. The list of 1st round who have been impactful?

Marquise Brown (584)
DJ Moore (982)
Calvin Ridley (844)
Corey Davis (622)
Mike Williams (587)
Will Fuller IV (558)
Amari Cooper (1,019)
DeVante Parker (684)
Nelson Agholor (503)
Sammy Watkins (707)
Mike Evans (1,210)
Odell Beckham Jr (1,085)
Brandin Cooks (955)
Kelvin Benjamin (604)
DeAndre Hopkins (1,229)
Michael Floyd (566)
Kendall Wright (551)
AJ Green (990)
Julio Jones (1,347)
Demaryius Thomas (976)
Dez Bryant (829)
Michael Crabtree (680)
Jeremy Maclin (759)
Percy Harvin (503)
Hakeem Nicks (726)
Kenny Britt (571)
Calvin Johnson Jr (1,291)
Dwayne Bowe (801)
Santonio Holmes (670)
Braylon Edwards (690)
Matt Jones (538)
Roddy White (988)

32. Based on my somewhat arbitrary number of averaging at minimum 500 yards per season in the league, it is about what you would expect in just about a 2:3 ratio of 1st rounders to 2nd/3rd rounders respectively. I did not account for injuries, as injuries statistically should not effect 1 group more than the other. 500 yards is a relatively impactful amount of yards, and yes you would prefer higher but this accounts for injury seasons and growth years across the board. There are a few more high-impact WR’s in the 1st round group as well, but not many more. On top of this, few of those high-impact WR’s have played in a Super Bowl, and even more interestingly, 28.1% of the listed 1st rounders played in a Super Bowl, while 33% of the 2nd/3rd rounders played in a Super Bowl. (The number jumps from 33% to 38% if you include multiple appearances). Likewise, 18.8% of the listed 1st rounders have won a Super Bowl, while 22% of the 2nd/3rd rounders have won.

My takeaway is this. WR’s are so heavily dependent on QB play that if you have to take one in the 1st round in order for your QB to play at a playoff level, you need a better QB. If you have a strong, deep team, taking a 1st round WR is a luxury, not a priority to me. There does not appear to be a significantly higher rate of team success based on spending a first round pick on a WR vs the 2nd/3rd rounds.

 

And as my final thought, there seems to be a trend of WR’s more ready to play in the league than in years past. I think this has to do with changing rules, as well as a schematically changing college offensive landscape. 11 out of the 45 2nd/3rd guys have entered the league in the last 2 years. Which represents a significant disparity. 24.4% of the players come from only 13.3% of the years included.

Of the first rounders, 9.4% come from those 2 years, a more expected rate.

 

Pardon me fixing my math slightly, hence the edits.

 

what about all the misses at WR in rounds 2-3 & beyond? What about all the JETS misses in those rounds? What about the Jets current WR situation? WR situation since 2010?

Michael Irvin was a Luxury for Troy Aikman? Rice for Montana? Holt-Warner? Julio-Ryan?Moss-Cunningham?Swann-Bradshaw? I guess all those Teams just needed better QBs.

W the game & rules all predicated so heavily on the boundary,w how dreadful the Jets situation has been..I fail to see on any level how a WR is a luxury.

You obviously put some work into this data but seems the more reasonable synopsis would be that WRs can often be found in later rounds & that it’s a position w alot of layers in the evaluation/procurement process. Saying it is a luxury & to speak in absolute terms about never drafting one in the 1st round doesnt mesh w the successful organizations philosophy & frankly ignores the failures of the team we all root for.

 

I appreciate the time and effort you put into this, but I still disagree. IMO you can't reduce a WRs impact into an arbitrary number (I'm assuming your numbers in parentheses are average yards per season, because it isn't clear in your post what that number stands for). Yes, one has to look at a WR's QB and the type of offense they play, the WR's role in that offense, if there are other elite WRs on that team or if that WR is the primary target, the number of TDs they score, the percentage of passes they catch, how they play in the clutch, etc.

Comparing 2nd and 3rd rounders to 1st rounders skews the statistics. Using two rounds worth of WRs should give better percentages/statistics than just the 1st round alone. Your theory also ignores the team that the team a WR is drafted onto and its offensive philosophy and OC/HC can have a huge impact upon a career. Some WRs like players at all positions are relatively late bloomers. Some players enter the NFL at or near their peak others don't reach their ceiling or peak until they get NFL-caliber coaching and refine their technique, or an offense is designed around their talents. There are many factors that affect and confuse the process of evaluating players, but generally, there are solid reasons why some players are rated as 1st round talents and why others are evaluated as 2nd and 3rd round talents. Evenso, that system is flawed, like any human system and will never be perfect. We can only do the best we can, but to adopt a philosophy that 2nd and 3rd WRs are always just as good as 1st round WRs and thus eschew taking a WR in the 1st round is foolish in the extreme imo.