I think this is a real tough call either way. In hindsight, sure the FG would have been the right choice. At the time, given the distance to the goal line and time left on the clock, I think the decision is a toss-up. There's a safe play and an aggressive play, but neither one is clearly right or wrong.
Rockefella is right, I am grasping at straws, it would have been a minor miracle just to get the game to OT, but there was no hindsight. I was flabbergasted they were going for it before it even happened. No matter how unplauseable it may seem, you have to give yourself a chance to extend the game. Once it gets to 4th down, I don't care it it's 20 yards or 1 yard. That's a glorified extra point for Folk, even rushing onto the field and quick snapping. I'd rather lose heaving a Hail Mary than watch the opposing QB kneel on it. Just me. We have the best ST coach in the history of the league. I know an onsides kick is far from a certainty, but I would have like to have tried at the very least.
I would have kicked myself but there's no way I'm killing Rex over this. To me its pretty much a 50/50 call. The chances of getting a 2 yard TD followed by a 45 yard FG aren't very different than kicking a 18 yard FG, and then trying to pull off a 55 yard TD drive with no timeouts and the defense playing pass all the way. I look at the percentages way (assuming we recover the onsides in either case). 18 yard FG probably 95%, followed by a 55 yard TD drive with no timeouts -- 20% for us at best? 2 yard TD about 70%, followed by a 45 yard FG from Folk -- maybe 65%? Like I said, I would have kicked and taken my chances with another drive because we've done it before, but is one case really much stronger than the other? I can totally see Rex wanting to get the TD when we were already on the doorstep. I'm surprised we didn't get in.
Agreed, esp when you look at the percentages as you have laid them out. I'm surprised this is still an issue. BTW, clock management was very good yesterday
My view is that they should have kicked a field goal after the long play to Keller. That would have left about ninety seconds to score a touchdown after recovering an onside kick, which is far better odds than going 25 or 55 yards for a FG or TD in 43 seconds respectively.
