Western imperialism has nothing to do with what is going on in North Korea at the moment. The issue is renewed sanctions with teeth in them that is causing a major cash problem for the regime. Without cash it is very hard for the regime to maintain control over the elites, particularly in the military but also in the intelligence service and manufacturing sector. We could be looking at endgame for the status quo in North Korea. It's hard to see how the Chinese will avoid intervening and knocking over the regime. The alternative is a really messy fight that will cause major disruption for the Chinese and possibly lead into WWIII.
The world won't be sustainable with current status quo. In less than 10 years, expect a big WW3. Western Empire against Eastern Empire. The cards will be dealt again in 10 years.
Western Empire isn't going to want to fight over the next decade and Eastern Empire doesn't have any real incentive to force a fight. WWIII may happen randomly but it's not going to be a long buildup to war like WWII was. The pivot to East Asia is going to falter due to economic realities. You can't cut defense by a third over a decade and make any type of real commitment there. The Chinese will figure out that we're posturing more than anything else and then just let the status quo continue. We'll have bumps in the road when East Asia's economy hits the skids but they won't want to do much more than posture there either.
No WW starts randomly. Eastern Empire(China, India, Russia) makes up around 50% of the world population. And right now majority of those people are living in poverty. Like I said in a previous post, workd resources can't support entire world living in Western standards. So expect a war. Either Western World dominates and make sure China and India keep living the way they are living or we will see the end of Western Empire. Not enough bread and butter to keep entire 6 billion happy.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...f62-11e2-9c03-6952ff305f35_story.html?hpid=z1 Chinese President: “No one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos,” So now the Chinese have troops massed on North Korea's border and they're making veiled threats directed at the regime. This is their ticket into a leadership role in the world community.
Anonymous Still Retains Control Of North Korea’s Official Twitter And Flickr Accounts http://thetechjournal.com/internet/...as-official-twitter-and-flickr-accounts.xhtml
The Chinese have been pushing the limits in the region for the last year or so. They've been doing this mainly for domestic consumption and because it gets them minor brownie points with almost everybody in the region when they mess with Japan. Memories are long. That said, they really don't want a major conflagration right now and North Korea is probably pissing them off by threatening to create one. The Chinese push limits for a year and then North Korea starts a wider regional war and it makes the Chinese look really bad in the process. They won't win the war if they jump in on the NK side and they'll lose some face if they stand by while NK gets reamed. Not to mention everybody in the region will be looking at China cross-eyed afterwards. So they're going to have to make North Korea stand down one way or the other. Either the North Koreans realize they're on the edge with everybody and back down or the Chinese have real issues to start thinking about. North Korea can't reach the US with nukes but they can hit a dam in Eastern China that would put about 300 million people at risk. Remember that the Chinese signed off on the sanctions at the UN that started all of this. They're caught in the middle no matter what.
I just read that Japan is deploying missle defense systems but they won't say where. NHK says they are someplace outside of Tokyo. I have also read the North is gearing up for another nuke test.
The big wars always start with a series of diplomatic errors that draw the combatants into conflict in stages. In this case the two biggest powers have apparently been in constant communication as the crisis unfolds. Hopefully they're not making errors in stages.
North Korea isn't going to do a thing. It's a death sentence for their government if they did. They might be able to succeed in throwing the world into chaos but they wouldn't survive the chaos to reap the benefits of it.
Sure. But what have they done up to this point to make you believe they are operating using rational thought? Some people would love to go down in infamy
The most irrational person sees gain in what they do. What is the North Koreans gain? They are a lot of things but kamikaze isn't one of them.
The Kim Dynasty has lasted 60 years, you don't last 60 years if you're completely irrational. Past experience has proved to the Kims that there is good money to be made in *appearing* irrational and dangerous. Pueblo incident, shooting down a civilian airliner, DMZ shootings, infiltration/sabotage of the South, refusing to sign an armistice, all of these things have gotten the West (and China) to cave in frequently enough to keep the regime in power. From his perspective, the sanctions are apparently causing quite a bit of pain for the Kim regime (probably because China's cooperating this time). So, he can't hold the status quo. He feels he needs nukes because he knows his army is inferior. He can't shoot the nukes or go to his other trump card, shelling Seoul because both of those things touch off a war that ends his regime. So, he'll go for a small provocation, probably a missile test, maybe a nuke test too and then rattle his tin cup for cash and concessions. Until the next time.
Western imperialism today is all about big banks lending money to countries that they know can't be paid back. Takeover of resources via debt is how it works now.
What is the status quo? World birth rates are declining quickly, populations are ageing quickly. We may very well see a natural event that reduces the population without man intervening in any credible way. I suspect we might have a huge WW3 event but even without it things are very fluid, the earth continues to spin at a very fast pace through the heavens with all kinds of things going on above and below the surface. The Chinese aren't interested in ground conflicts with anyone. They certainly don't want a US Naval presence in their sphere of influence but they aren't likely to push to any degree on NK and the US certainly doesn't want to put our navy in conflict with the growing Chinese Navy. My guess is Japan militarizes and we and the Chinese do very little.
Don't be surprised if both SoKor and Jap start research on nukes just to keep NoKor and the Mandarins off their asses.
That's kind of how I see it. The Chinese opportunity to slow down the militarization of Japan basically hinges on restraining North Korea. I don't think they could do that effectively enough to stop the Japanese though. It doesn't take a lot of deep thought to realize that the US pivot to Asia isn't going to work. Too much else going on and the US defense budget is going to take major hits over the next two decades. The only way the US effectively pivots to Asia is if Chinese diplomacy and might force us too.
With their disagreement over some islands in the Sea of Japan tensions are already high between China and Japan. My guess is Japan and China will realize that N. Korea is an enemy to both and through their mutual intervention and talks regarding N Korea will work out their differences between the disputed islands. I studied Japan and I don't see them building a military, I just don't unless they are attacked in which case all bets are off. I tink China likes not having a militarized Japan and they would like to keep it that way.
