Uh... I'm pretty sure Joba will be starting in the playoffs. But he'd likely see a max of four starts, and more likely three. (One in ALDS, one in ALCS, maybe two in WS if it doesn't line up properly. But more likely one.) But yeah, Don, don't be silly. Any GM can and should put innings limits aside for the postseason if the risk is relatively low and it improves their chance to win a title. This isn't about not caring about the young pitchers, or about there not really being any rules, or some such nonsense. It's a calculated risk. And one worth taking.
I was under the impression Joba was surely headed to the pen for the playoffs. Wasn't that what was being said all along? Believe me, I have no problem with him getting a start (if needed, though Sabathia and Burnett may make everyone else unnecessary.) I just thought that was the "plan" all along.
Maybe that was the plan when the rotation was expected to be CC > AJ > Pettitte > Wang/Hughes. But I don't think we're going to see Mitre or Gaudin getting starts in the playoffs.
But doesn't the format of the playoffs lend itself to a 3-man rotation? I would think it would be CC, AJ, Andy and then Hughes and Joba as the lead-ins to Mo.
If you use a 3 man rotation, your pitchers will sometimes be pitching on short rest. If you want them pitching on full rest, you need a fourth starter.
Yeah, through a full series that makes sense. I wonder what they'd do if they went with 4 and swept the first series?
You're too easy to rile. But...he is unlimited in the playoffs. Giardi and Cashman have both said that. He could theoretically pitch 6 7 inning games if it went the full 19. That is 42 innings in itself. All I'm saying is stop with the storyline that they care. The rule of thumb is +40. He pitched 100 last year so it is easy to see where that brings them to now.
There's typically enough time between series to go back to your Game 1 starter. For example, last year's ALDS series started on October 1st and October second. Both ended on October 6th. The ALCS didn't start until October 10th.
I don't know if it's low. Dr Andrews has written books on the subject. They can be found doing a google search.
It did until the fool Torre became manager. He used a 4 man rotation in a 5 game series. I swear he did everything he could to lose in the last 6 or 7 years.
Your math is off in a few places. First, it's the Rule of Thirty (not forty), and - as I've mentioned - it's not a hard and fast rule. Considerations can be made for pitch counts, how stressful the innings were, whether they were high or low leverage situations, starter vs. reliever, etc. (As an example, an inning from Joba as a reliever in 2007 and 2008 might count as more than an inning from Joba as a starter, due to greater stress on the arm.) Secondly, that rule typically applies to the maximum number of innings thrown in any professional year... not just the previous year. Joba's previous high was 115 innings, I believe. In 2007. And if the Yanks are weighting high-leverage relief innings more than innings as a starter, they might consider that to be comparable to something like 120-125 innings solely as a starter. Both of these things have already been explained to you. Why do you continue to repeat these mistakes? Lastly, There's no way he pitches six games. If the ALDS goes five games, he might pitch one (Game 4). If the ALCS goes seven games, he'll pitch one (Game 4). If the World Series goes seven games, he'll pitch one (Game 4). And depending on the schedule, they might not even need him at all in the ALDS.
What I found spoke mainly about younger kids..mainly high school but it did say the yearly increase must be limited. This was awhile ago/ I'll see if I can find any links now. Oh and Verducci has written a lot on it too. Here is one but it talks stricly about kids up to 19. http://baseballtips.com/pitchingreport.html Here's a PDF but again it is talking about kids. However it doesn't change. There still need to be limits. Even the Yankees say that, they just don't adhere to any. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...DE5ilGaFnTpnb47kA&sig2=dzAtHVRuaSYAD3So_xkD9w http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...ndrews+on+pitching+&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi= At least I think they are. Tough to grab those links for PDFs.
I'm not assuming a 4 man rotation..I don't know what it will be..if it's a 3 man he could pitch 6 games. If it's a 4 man and he is the 3rd starter he could still pitch 6. He was always the #3 and Pettitte was the number 4 all year.
I know Verducci has written a lot about it! What do you think I'm talking about when I say the rule of thirty? That's Verducci's term, not mine. Look dude, it seems pretty clear that you just discovered this and are find it useful as something to harp on Cashman about. Here's something else to consider in addition to the rule of thirty. Baseball Prospectus has a metric called pitcher abuse points that tracks how hard managers ride their pitchers. The idea is that fatigue leads to poor mechanics, which leads to increased likelihood of injuries, either now or down the road. Pitches 1-100 0 PAPs per pitch Pitches 101-110 1 PAP per pitch Pitches 111-120 2 " " " Pitches 121-130 3 " " " Pitches 131-140 4 " " " Pitches 141-150 5 " " " Pitches 151+ 6 " " " Of all pitchers will more than 90 innings last year, Joba ranked 105th out of 148 pitchers in abuse points, with 3265. In other words, they babied him a fair amount, and his injury and time as a reliever also kept his abuse points relatively low. For comparison's sake, Lincecum racked up 174,543 abuse points last year! In 2009, despite being healthy and a starter for the entire year so far, Joba ranks 104 out of 117 pitchers who qualify with more than 90 innings pitched, with 2187 total PAP. He has more innings than last year, and more opportunities as a starter to gain them, but fewer abuse points. He has absolutely babied this year. These are the extenuating circumstances that you look at when you say, "Can we safely go beyond a 30 inning increase this year?" They might be letting him make six extra starts or throw fifty more innings than the Rule of Thirty would suggest... but they do so knowing that his workload has been relatively light, otherwise.
No. That's absurd. At the very beginning of the year, it was CC > Wang > Burnett > Pettitte > Joba. (That's why Pettitte started the fourth game of the season, and Joba didn't start until the sixth.) And do you really think they'll sit Pettitte in the playoffs and pitch Joba instead? I have a hard time thinking that you even believe what you're typing.
And here, you want to read about pitching injuries? Take a look at these: The "original" such that it is: Link A good follow-up/update: Link The Injury Nexus is a must-read article: Link And if you want a more in-depth look at the subject, read this: Link These all deal with major league pitchers, not just kids. ETA: By the way, I knew exactly where to find those articles because I have already read them and worked to understand the information contained in each of them. I didn't just pull up a random google search trying to find support for an argument that I have little to no understanding of... which is the impression I am getting from your links. You haven't even read those articles you linked to, have you?
Obviously, I am talking about after Wang went down and that certainly wasn't deep into the season. Why wouldn't I think they might sit Pettitte in favor of Chamberlain. Nobody knows how he will be pitching in another 6 or 7 weeks. You only have to look to last year.
Why wouldn't you think that? Maybe because Pettitte has an ERA of 2.04 since the break, and he's arguably the most accomplished postseason pitcher in the history of the Yankees? I don't know how after all these years of Joba rules you can believe that the Yankees secretly want to destroy Chamberlain's arm, and they're just lying to the fans and the media for funsies. Cashman, Eiland and Girardi know more about Joba than you do--trust them to do the right thing.
Don, I mean this sincerely... I'd have a lot more respect for you if you stopped trying to cover for the fact that you're talking out of ass with ad hoc reasoning. You said, "[Joba] was always the #3 pitcher." This is false. He wasn't. And he still isn't. He was the #5 to start the season, and he's the #4 pitcher now. "Nobody knows whether X will happen" is a cop out reply. Nobody knows whether AJ's elbow will disintegrate. Nobody knows whether CC will eat one hamburger too many and injure his colon. Except that you were pretty sure that both were going to happen, weren't you, Don? You were also pretty sure that the Yankees had given up on Hughes and that, by re-signing Pettitte along with Burnett and Sabathia, Hughes' ego would suffer a humiliating blow and he'd be down on himself. How's that prediction working out?
