he said surest prospect, not best. Both guys you listed have pretty high bust-potential. And Warmack is probably the safest pick in this draft, and also happens to be the best player at his position in the draft
Again, we're back to values comparisons though. A year ago David DeCastro was the best guard prospect in years. Nobody suggested that he was a top 10 pick. He wound up going in the 20's right where a really good guard goes most of the time. Chance Warmack could be a great guard and he still shouldn't go in the top 10. You can't afford to pay a great LT and a great G on the same line and one of those guys is much more important than the other.
No, we can't worry about his contract in 4 years. You like what's happening with Revis right now? You going to like paying MoWilk what he's worth NEXT YEAR? D'Brick has cap numbers over $10M a year moving forward through 2017. Mangold has high cap numbers also. How exactly are you going to pay a guard that kind of money? Just ditch the LT and hope we get one cheap when D'Brick becomes cuttable along about 2016? The cap is a zero-sum exercise. If you don't match the impact of a player and his position to the cap you're never going to be solid for the long-term. Injuries screw things up all the time. Personnel decisions need to be really solid to avoid having the thing be a chaotic mess every year.
I guess we have different opinions on how good we're going to be. I don't see how you can put us at the same number of wins as last year after losing so many of our better players, still having huge holes (although some will be filled at the draft) and having other teams around us improving (like the Dolphins). I'd be shocked if we got 6 wins next year, so I think we'll have no problem getting a top pick next year. Plus not every team at the bottom will need a QB. Hell, we're discussing a guy you are espousing as a guy that can be our franchise QB being available at the 9th spot...so clearly not every bottom of the pack team goes for a QB. Hopefully it's a moot point and he's started ahead of our pick so we don't have to worry about it.
I do think we need to make the non sexy pick which would be Warmack.. I have to Admit this Draft Ive never been so confused about who we should pick. Cordarrelle Patterson, Mingo, Smith, Jordan, Jones, Moore its like when we look back on this draft I want to say we made the right choice.
To people who are trying to figure out what our potential is for next year and whether we're screwed on wins. The offense was basically sabotaging the team last year. It cannot get worse than what we saw from game to game last year on the offensive side of the ball. Even with all that the Jets were 6-7 in early December. We're not going 4-12 next year. We're probably winning 6-ish games even against the tougher schedule. To go 4-12 the Jets would basically need a horrific run of injuries wiping them out just like the 2005 team. That team had Brooks Bollinger start 9 games and Mawae and Fabini and D-Rob and Ellis and a host of others all miss significant games to injury. They still won 4 games.
It looks like there are a lot of good players that can fall to ninth, which is great for us. Personally I hope Smith isn't the one but that's just me.
The "it cannot get worse" argument is cute...but meaningless. We have no answer at QB, lost our starting RB and TE who was the number one target. Holmes is back but we'll see shown useful he is. I would put the low end at four wins and high end at six.
lets say we split the division 3-3 beat Oakland, Carolina and Tennesse like we should 6-3 lose to Atlanta, Baltimore and New Orleans 6-6 that leaves 4 push games(Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh) at best 10-6 if we win all those games, at worst 6-10 Geno Smith and Mike Goodson would already be better threats than Sanchez and Greene, Holmes, Kerley and Hill plus another receiver should benefit. TE is a question mark but if we get Fred Davis along with Hayden Smith hopefully continuing to improve we should be fine on offense The defense will be great as long as we keep Revis and our linebackers and D-Line improve against the run, we can get by at safety like we always have if we have our stud corners in tact and Rex can scheme his blitzs with ease Special Teams will hopefully be a bright spot hopefully giving us a big play or 2 a game to help us get a win
We had no answer at QB last year. How'd that work out? Keller missed 8 games. How'd that work out? Shonn Greene was about a bad a main back as you can have until he suddenly figured out he was in a contract year halfway through and started making efforts to evade tacklers. How'd that work out? We had no Revis for most of the year. The NT's were both hurting all year long. The linebackers made molasses look like mercury. How'd all that work out? The thing that people are forgetting here in this rush to proclaim us a 4-12 team is that the only 4-12 teams the Jets have fielded in the last decade both had major injury problems that ran for most of the season. The 2005 team was decimated by injuries and the 2007 squad had only 7 starters out of 22 who started 16 games. The Jets have only had 4 teams in 12 years that won fewer than 8 games and the QB got hurt on 3 of them. Last year on the way to 6-10 the Jets only had 8 starters start 16 games. Next year's team is probably going to go 6-10 on the merits but it is going to take another bad injury run to put them below that in the basement with a really bad record. 4-12 without major injuries only happens to bad teams and the Jets have not been a bad team since Bill Parcells came to town and they won't be a bad team next year.
The last thing we need is to draft a QB in the 1st round this year. Maybe a 2-4 rounder for less money and maybe, just maybe hit a winner. If you draft a QB in the first round we are just adding to the problem, since they will want to start now and we already have a new offense with four guys fighting for the posistion. Wait a year and draft a real QB who could start year one and a QB who the next HC will have a say in. Don't tie down the next HC with a QB pick. Let Rex live and die with his QB.
No RGIII which I wouldn't want anyways, and very far from Andrew Luck in every way. I would pass, we don't need to be the sheep and follow the trend, waite for the right guy.
Well if i was GM i would NOT pencil in any of this years QB's at number 9. while the reward of hitting on smith is obviously high, so is the risk, and the current state of the jets roster/cap precludes me from taking that risk as GM. except for the OL - all other possible top ten picks have their own inherent risk but not quite as much as QB. u take fisher if he is there at 9, bar none. warmack is a very tough call and its very very possible he is atop the jets board when they are on the clock. johnson and cooper should also be there but they wont be on top of ur board at 9. it has been said a team should take a QB at least in every other draft or even every draft - tough to do with 7 picks - so free agents count in here as well. i do think the jets take a QB when the potential value starts to outweigh the risks. that could be anywhere from round 3 or later depending on the player. all in all - we have a better opp next year with better QB talent in the draft AND sticking a fork in sanchez - which ever comes first. hey if sanchez wins comeback player of the year - problem solved.
The thing is, and Im sure its on the back of Woody's mind... is that if you draft Geno Smith, you provide some sense of hope for the future and an actual bright spot for the fans. Honestly, do you think fans are going to pay to see Mark Sanchez play? Do you think they are going to support him? Nope. But if there was a young promising QB sitting on the bench for half of the season, waiting for "his time", Im sure it would sit a lot easier with the fans and they would be more interested in the team as a whole. Basically, drafting Geno would instill some sense of hope for the future and the would probably fill more seats/sell more team products.
I went back and I looked at the 10 drafts between 1993 and 2002 trying to figure out what the career value (AV from Pro-Football-Reference) in the top 5 picks was by position. The analysis was skewed really heavily towards QB in terms of numbers and towards RB in terms of AV. It was further skewed by two players, Peyton Manning who has the highest career AV at this point since 1950, and Marshall Faulk who is 21st overall since 1950. Both were picked by Bill Polian. Anyway here are the numbers: QB - 13 picked for 791 AV = 60.8 per pick RB - 8 picked for 612 AV = 76.5 per pick DE - 8 picked for 430 AV = 53.8 per pick OT - 5 picked for 329 AV = 65.8 per pick OLB - 5 picked for 249 AV = 49.8 per pick CB - 4 picked for 240 AV = 60 per pick WR - 3 picked for 144 AV = 48 per pick DT - 2 picked for 111 AV = 55.5 per pick OG - 1 picked for 63 AV = 63 per pick ILB - 1 picked for 52 AV - 52 per pick TE/S - no picks Before people get too excited by things like the OG picked #2 overall (Leonard Davis) just be aware that the team that picked him did not make the playoffs in any of the six seasons he played for them and also be aware that he played G in two of those seasons, RT in one of them and LT in three. One of the things that really stood out in looking at the analysis is how bad the teams were that went against the grain in making their picks. The lone ILB picked in the top 5 was Marvin Jones by the management team that gave us the Jets in the mid-90's. The only G was taken by the Cardinals in a stretch that was bad even by Cardinals standards (35 wins in 7 years.) The WR's went to the '96 Jets, the '95 Redskins (1 playoff appearance in the next 9 seasons) and the 2000 Bengals (no comment.) The DT's both worked out but they went to the Bengals and the Browns. In other words you go against the grain in the top 5 picks if you are a bad team that can't make competent decisions. The NFL has decided that those picks are for QB's, RB's, DE's, OT's and OLB's. You may fail at selecting one of the above but if you punt the choice by taking a lower impact position that guarantees failure even if your guy works out.
I don't think so. The bench Sanchez chants would start game one, then we have another inexperienced QB who may not be ready being thrown into the fire. We replay the last 4 years, hope, promise, dud. Now, if we keep him on the bench all season I may be for it, but I don't think Rex would go for that if he thought his job was on the line.
You don't want to keep the young QB on the bench the whole season. You want to keep him on the bench until you're sure he's ready to go out and compete, with the understanding that a QB's first year is almost always going to be rocky. You just want the bright lights to go away and the head-spinning effect to go away and above all you want the guy to grasp your playbook before you send him out there. Ideally if the Jets drafted a QB they thought was really promising this year they'd send David Garrard out there for the first month or two and then have the young guy replace him somewhere in the vicinity of the bye week if it was early or mid-season if it was late. The only good reasons to keep a rookie QB on the bench the whole season are that he's not ready to go (uh oh) or you have a solid player in front of him and are under no pressure to put the young guy in (Vinny/Chad, Favre/Rodgers, Kitna/Palmer to name a few of these.)
