NFL and College Football Betting Thread

Discussion in 'Virtual Vegas' started by Jonathan_Vilma, Sep 12, 2020.

  1. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Thanks man. 2-1 last night. Arkansas +1.5 tonight should be solid. Cam Taylor of LSU might be out and if not he'll be playing on a bum ankle. Should be a lot of points too.
     
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  2. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Hope no one listened to me lol. Arkansas got slaughtered. Gonna stay away from the SEC unless Bamas involved.
     
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  3. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    JV, IDF, Lon

    Who do you guys like in Divisional Playoffs?

    Packers -2.5
    Ravens +2.5

    I love those. No idea on Sunday games. What you guys think?
     
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  4. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    Hey man--got to see the covid/injuries first--on the face it looks like your locked in.
     
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  5. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    If the payout was worth it I think I'd throw tons and tons of money on the Packers ML if I had it laying around.

    I'll probably take them at my usual bet levels -6.5. But is injured Jared Goff reallllllly going into Lambeau and winning with snow in the forecast? He's going to have a hard time even taking snaps in that cold.

    Rodgers is known for some letdowns though but I don't see this one - don't care how good the defense is.
     
  6. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    I am having a rough year in NFL so thats my warning statement, but I see these spreads and I'm pretty shocked by them actually. I think you have 2 of the easiest picks in weeks available.

    Bills & Ravens: Buffalo's run defense sucks. It just sucks. They are playing the very best rushing team in the league. How are they favored? Because the game is in Buffalo? The stadium is mostly empty. Gotta go Ravens here, I'll pick them money line. Keep your points.

    Saints & Bucs:How is the line so close? The Brady-factor? Saints beat them every time they play and the Bucs are so overrated, they haven't beaten anyone.

    I'm doing a Ravens/Saints moneyline parlay at its great value at +264
     
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  7. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Split with you on these games I think. Heavy on the Ravens for sure though for the reasons you stated. Snow could be an X-factor because I have 100% faith in Lamar gashing them on the ground and 0% faith in him throwing in the snow while Allen can throw the ball around the yard in snow. Lamar is on a mission though.

    Saints spread should be higher. I'd be bigger on the Buccaneers if I could get 5-6. Brady is a much better player than Brees at this point in their careers though. They both want this bad. Not sure which way to go but I try to error on the side of getting the better QB with points.
     
  8. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    College bball picks:

    Marshall/W. Kentucky : Marshall +3.5. (thats my favorite for the day but it starts soon so I'll put up another)

    LIU/Wagner: Over 139.5
     
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  9. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    You ever give away more points on the O/U? I've been doing it the past three weeks and absolutely crushing it. Something like 6-0 on O/U with +140 or better. All O/U that start around 130-135 or below and give away more points up to 138/139. Picked up Georgia +8 which will cash and Michigan -5.5 that starts shortly.

    For Rams/Packers looking at this.

    Packers -6 (-120) - bought it down a half point to protect the push if it goes into OT (no XP's)
    Allan Lazard to score anytime (+325)
    Any other Packer to score (+350)
    Allan Lazard over 38.5 yards receiving (-112)
    Aaron Jones over 23.5 yards receiving (-118)

    Also looking at a teaser to start like this. Need to figure out what the third game will be
    Packers +0.5
    Ravens +9.5
     
  10. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    Packers -2.5 is safe
    Ravens +3.5 is safe in my book.

    I also can't see Tampa Buy covering +3. I think Saints will win by at least a TD, We shall see. Play off Brady might be a factor here.
     
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  11. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    I think you should be good. Added this 7 point teaser.

    +105
    Packers (turns into ML)
    Ravens +9.5
    Buccaneers +10
     
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  12. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    Good luck JV

    I also have Ravens -9.5 (+310)

    Feel like Ravens will run all over the Bills and pick up overrated Allen at least twice. Don't mess with John Harbaugh and Wink.
     
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  13. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    You too man.
     
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  14. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    Ive never done that. Sounds interesting though. I just carefully follow a lot of the mid majors for some reason. When it comes to the O/U I like to look at pace of play. Fordham for example is slower than muddy pond water on a cold November day. So I always bet the under on them. Last year I made a killing on them but the bookies have gotten smarter.

    today my pick is

    UW Milwaukee -2.5 (home vs. Fort Wayne)
     
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  15. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    I definitely take a look at pace of play but it's sometimes misleading. LSU for example is middle of the pack in pace of play but tops in offensive efficiency and absolutely burned me versus Arkansas (+1.5) the other night.

    Might just be more lucky than good for me the last couple weeks. But I always have to believe most college teams can (not necessarily will) get to 70 points. That's why I look for those 130ish O/U and try to buy them up. I don't have any sort of congregate statistical analysis but I read ActionNetwork, Sportswire, Winners+Whiners, SportsChatPlace, etc and try to make an educated guess. Whenever I read about two good offenses but better defenses I'm always pounding the over.
     
  16. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Weak vig but I wanted the 3.

    Ravens +3 (-121) big.

    Let's go Lamar! @BrowningNagle
     
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  17. Acad23

    Acad23 Well-Known Member

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    Lamar scares me.

    They should make him play with lead cleats... :D
     
  18. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    No idea why I trust Ravens this much but if Ravens lose by more than 3 I am done for the weekend. :)

    Go Ravens. Please win by 9.5 :)
     
  19. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Better coach/better defense/run game travels in the playoffs. They're an easy back but majority of the money at Caesars William Hill is on the Bills (56% spread/62% ML)
     
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  20. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    For once, I want to be on the side of the underdogs. Let's see. Go Ravens!
     

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