Dude just take a chill pill a little bit. We've got a damn good core team and yeah you can second guess mistakes in team personnel philosophy all day and all that but at the end of the day there's the makings of a really good football club here. We've got a kid in Sanchez who has all the upside in the world. He has some bust potential too admittedly but I don't think so. I think this kid is a winner and I think he showed it to us time and time again from day one. We just had one crappy season because Mangold went down, Hunter turned out to be for shit which nobody expected, and Plaxico was a big step down from Braylon along with some normal weakening around the edges that you'd expect from a low cap flexibility rebuilding team, (which we are). If the light goes on in Sanchez' head this year none of us are going to know what to do with our excitement. Even if he makes a good solid jump from year 3 to 4 we'll be in good shape looking forward. The only way we're screwed for the foreseeable future is if Sanchez doesn't progress AND we bust out on our solid opportunity to revamp the club through draft/fa this year and next with our extra picks. You might tell me this ball club isn't going to get the full results it could/should have if Sanchez doesn't develop into a top 10 QB. You might say anything you want about depth, or contracts, or I don't care. The fact is we've just had 2 cracks at a championship run in 3 years...and I guarantee you we'll get at least one more go round before we have to find replacements for Mangold/Harris/Revis/Ferguson/hell even 'Cro and 'Tone. I wish I could guarantee the trophy, but unfortunately it doesn't work like that. They're going to give us plenty of thrills over the coming years rings or not, and you're just going to have to come to grips with that. If Greene stayed on the field in the 2nd half in '09 I think it would have been 60/40 or 50/50 we win the game. If the front seven remembered how to make the simplest tackles they've been executing since 5th grade in '10 I think we would've had a crack at the Packers for sure. I understand being a glass is half empty guy, but can you really delude yourself into thinking that being a couple of friendly bounces off the net in years 1 and 2 could've brought us to the superbowl that we'll never be able to do it again? With the same core of guys but a few years to strengthen the depth and do it for real? Come on man. O 'ye of little faith...bitch please and all that. I won't guarantee, but I will *bet* you. Sanchez will bring your hardware before the worms eat you yet.
The other thing that's important to realize is that the number of holes the Jets need to fill each season is increasing as the effects of their talent acquisition process begin to show over time. In 2009 the Jets had to replace QB, RT, RILB, CB, Nickel and SS. They chose to get a WR also in season. In 2010 the Jets had to replace LG, RDE, CB, Nickel, FS, RB2 and 3rdB. They chose to get a WR also. In 2011 the Jets had to replace RT, LDE, WR, TE2, RB2, KR, PR and OL depth. They chose to replace another WR also. In 2012 we're up to the 12 or so I mentioned. Even if Slauson actually plays well enough to keep that spot long-term and I think that's up in the air, even if Scott has another year in the tank at a reasonable level, even if Kenrick Ellis proves out, the Jets are still filling more holes and even more impactful holes than they have had to fill in prior seasons. Then you throw in the fact that 40% of the board thinks the QB has to be replaced too, well if that's true the Jets are basically in rebuild mode. Their talent decisions from 2007 on are finally catching up to them in a cascading fashion. This is what you would expect when key contributors age out and there's nobody behind them to fill because the slots that might have done that were consolidated for value at other positions instead.
I mean as to your first paragraph and basically the whole post, what you just said was: The long term effects of their talent acquisition style are impacting the team in the way that the long term effects impact a team that utilizes this talent acquisition style. It's entirely redundant and inherent. When you try to draft a few key star players to rebuild your club...you're going to lose picks and lose depth. That is what happens. Then, when your depth is less a few years down the road you say...oh shit my depth is hurting...then you get depth. The crux of the style is that you better make damn sure your premier picks that you angled for panned out. And our guys have. You can make upgrades to solid NFL roleplayers fairly easily to fill in the cracks. But you can't just go pick up Revis' and Mangold's and D'Brick's and Harris's etc. You have to angle for those guys...or you have to be sick at drafting or get really lucky. Tanny has gone for the low risk sure fire way to get big talent on the roster. I think he has done a hell of a job doing what he's trying to do. Shame it isn't what YOU want him to do. The style is not significantly better or worse inherently than any other. It's all in the game. Now Tanny just gotta play the game and cut his style back the other direction. React to the impacts of his past moves. He's a smart puppy. He's on it I promise you. Smarter than you. Smarter than me. I feel like if I have any advantage in interpretation it certainly has nothing to do with football knowledge. It's interpreting Tanny's moves and gleaning his intentions and motives. Thinking strategically. You're just seeing ways we can fail. But we're right in the thick of it man. Fuck 40% of the board. Sanchez is going to be our guy...and all the rest of it means fuck all. But even if he isn't we won't be dead yet. Let me try to bring the point home a little bit more. We all know that trading up means losing draft picks (or trading players for moving up which is the equivalent of trading picks in the long run because you just created a hole where you presumably had none before). We all know Tanny has been doing that: I come on here...I hear..."Fuckin Tanny trading up should be trading down what a buffoon so stupid can't do it BLAHBLAHBLAH." Go in the media, same story (except they sprinkle in 3 irrelevencies to support their claims to top it off). And you know what I think to myself? What a bunch of morons. First of all, you can't go making some blanket statements about the best way to build a football club in a perfectly competitive market like the NFL. Some strategy for acquiring personnel that you could put down into a binder like it's a playbook and just follow x move and y move and z move and voilah you have a great team (assuming you perform well in talent evaluation to carry out the plan). It's impossible. Every Free Agency is different, every draft class too. Every team every year is different. The rules change for the whole league. Everything changes all the time. There is more than one way to skin a cat. Let me give you an example of a factor that plays strongly into Tanny's recent strategie's positives that I seriously doubt you consider: Most people think like you. In the media. In the fan base. In the organizations most importantly. Most people think really dull thoughts, and just do what the other guy is doing or says you should be doing because....well that's just how we do this particular thing. And guess what happens. Most clubs operate the way you EXPECT them to. And what happens? You get the same teams trying to make the same deals for the same players in the same manner...and what happens? There are more bidders gobbling up the supply for the things that you most covet, and you lose value. Sure, you still get the value by selecting BPA every time and doing this and that that you want them to do. But the point is, if everyone is doing the same thing as you you're not going to get any SICK VALUES that aren't open to anyone who happens to be picking right where you happen to be at that moment that somebody cool is/isn't left. So Tanny goes against the grain, because he knows that he's going to stumble onto opportunities that others aren't looking for. By definition, he gets better value. You can argue all you want about "well what if he isn't getting ENOUGH value in COMPENSATION?" But that's a load of shit. The only one that knows that is God and Tanny has the second best idea. And we're all just outside spectators. If there's a computer somewhere that can answer the question, it sure ain't you.
Ferguson, maybe, but Rob Turner is a capable backup for Mangold and guys like Bellore and Mauga can play well enough to be functional in relief of Harris. If Mauga is starting already then that creates a soft spot because you can't protect two guys.
The reason for that, of course, is that they refuse to rebuild. They're trying to win every year, so they patch up the holes and roll out the same ship again. Even the 4-12 seasons are due to things not panning out, rather than a painful 'take your medicine' exercise. Trouble in this town is you can't rebuild coming off a good season because the fans/media expect every year to be better than the one before and you can't rebuild coming off a bad season because you'll be crucified for two consecutive bad years and likely get fired.
The Steelers have rebuilt at least 3 times since 1990 without ever going 4-12 in the process. Some of their rebuilds went to the Super Bowl eventually (Neil O'Donnell version), some didn't (Kordell Stewart/Tommy Maddox version) and some turned into mini-dynasties (Big Ben edition) but none of them have ever been terrible. The Jets are just very poorly managed and have been now for more than a decade. They have a lousy talent acquisition scheme and are inconsistent in their on-field plan, switching back and forth between offensive and defensive sets like a high school girl changing outfits. They're a second-rate organization and until they get a plan that's going to continue.
The Steelers have done a good job refreshing their team without going down the pan - much like Manchester United have done in the English Premier League - but what I meant was the Jets won't ever commit to tearing down and building up, like (for example) the Cubs are doing this year in baseball. They want to maximise their win total each year. The first goal is always *now*. That is not conducive to long term planning. On top of that, they've made mistakes time and again, undermining the whole process.
I agree with you on the "never'tearing-down" aspect. The Jets will never do that. But that's not how you rebuild in professional football. You rebuild by solidifying the thing you are best at, the organization's A plan whatever that is. Then you add in the primary supporting pieces that complement that. The reason the Jets have been so wishy-washy over the last decade is they have no A plan to solidify. They just keep signing mid-career players and throwing them into a formless structure and expecting that to work somehow. Right now the closest thing the Jets have to an A plan is: look, we have the best CB in the NFL. That's useless in terms of being an elite team.
I generally share your skepticism about Tanny and his people, and their lack of a guiding philosophy. One area I think you are arguably too negative is on the assessment of just how dire the current problems and holes are. The Jets by my count have four starting positions that require attention - ROLB, safety, RT and #2 wideout. They also have to bring Pouha back. That's a lot of what I consider immediately pressing needs. But... At the second level below starters, your key backups,the Jets are in pretty decent shape. #3 wideout in Kerley looks good as does #3 cb in Wilson. I actually like the DL rotation with Pouha back. It's not great, but I expect Wilkerson to play better, enough so that the backups should not be overstressed. WHile the book is still out on Ellis, Dixon has made plays. Cumberland coming back should also help somewhat at TE. And R Turner is a good backup for the interior linemen. And if RT can be upgraded, Hunter is a decent backup. Where your second level players are problematic is at backup Qb, change of pace RB, and I am not a Pool fan. Beyond that, I don't like either the punter or kicker much, and LOLB is a position that will likely require a replacement by 2013, as will Scott's ILB position. Then there is the problem with both OG positions, which will likely reach a more pressing level next year at best, but could be a problem even this year if Slauson is again mediocre, failing to improve from his injured condition. Yeah, it's a lot, and I of course am one who adds Mark Sanchez to that list. But... Assuming Pouha comes back, it remains doable to get help in FA at #2 wideout, safety and RT. Use the first day picks certainly on ROLB, and then to fill as many of the second tier needs (many say the Jets may address the RB situation with Richardson in the first round, and TE is another area in need of attention. I also think backup safety requires attention. Where I am on the fence is about LOLB's being obtained to develop during Pace's last year. The Jets just might pull through with those moves if key players in Mangold, Revis, Cromartie (yes I do not share your disdain for the importance of the CB position), Harris and Ferguson stay healthy, and Holmes gets some pressure taken away from those covering him by a better #2, Kerley shows more improvement, and Greene stays healthy, and last but not least Mark Sanchez doesn't shit the bed. It is also not unreasonable to expect Wilson to show more improvement (although I doubt he ever justifies the first round pick), Pace and Scott to hang on one more year, and that special teams are at least adequate. It's a crap shoot, and even to get there it will require the FO to make those key moves. On the other hand if we find the team after the draft having failed to bring back Pouha, get upgrades at RT, wideout, safety, a solid high round pick for ROLB, and perhaps key upgrades in the RB and TE's, then this team will be toast. The most important question of all is whether Tanny has it in him. He may surprise us, but here I share your pessimism. I guess my point is the task is not insurmountable, but the current regime does not inspire confidence. If they fail, the failure is directly on them, and they should be gone before 2013.
