It's natural to think that head-to-head regular season performance says something about the playoffs, but the data just don't back it up. In 2006, the teams that won the six league playoff series had a regular season record of 19-26 against the teams they beat. In 2005, the winners had a 22-34 regular season record. In 2004, it was 35-29. In 2003, it was 25-26. In each of 2003 (4 of 6), 2005 (5 of 6), and 2006 (4 of 6), more than half of the playoff series were won by the team with the worse head-to-head record. In their entire history the Mets have played 10 NL playoff series; half were won by the team with the better head-to-head record, and half were won by the team with the worse record. I want to see the Mets win this series because I want them to put more space between them and their #1 division rival, but worries about team playoff psychology seem overblown to me at this point.
All you have to do is look back to 1988 and see how much head to head regular season match ups matter in the playoffs.
Well, by that argument, the fact that the Yankees beat the Twins in 2003 after going 7-0 against them in the regular season proves that head-to-head regular season record is a great predictor of playoff success. We all remember 1988 because we're Met fans, but that was just one 7-game series, and could have been a fluke. The fact that over the last four years the winning teams in playoff series had a 101-115 regular season record against their opponents, and had lost 14 of the 23 season series against them (with one being tied), shows that it isn't any kind of fluke when it happens nowadays.
Tonight: SS Jose Reyes RF Shawn Green CF Carlos Beltran 3B David Wright C Paul Lo Duca 1B Carlos Delgado 2B Damion Easley LF Carlos Gomez P Oliver Perez 2B Martin Prado SS Edgar Renteria 3B Larry Jones RF Jeff Francoeur LF Matt Diaz CF Andruw Jones C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 1B Chris Woodward P Chuck James
Look who's batting sixth. (Yes, I know James is a lefty, but it's still noteworthy.) Not so sure about Green batting second and Easley batting seventh, however.
Hey don't complain it is still an improvement, although the fact that Delgado has actually hit lefties this year puzzles me a bit
No, my point is that using one isolated occurrence (which happened almost 20 years ago) as proof is ridiculous, but looking at several years' worth of recent data and seeing a consistent pattern is actual evidence. See the difference?
I like this Perez. The one who can get into a bit of trouble and work out of it without breaking a sweat.
