2 of Our 3 starting WR would be 6’3 218 6’2 212 We already have a Mike Williams, we need a Keenan Allen
I didn't say that he was "crazy" so please don't put words in my mouth. Mental health issues generally aren't short term fixes. He missed two-thirds of this past season. Is it certain that he will be back next season, focused and ready to play, or will he walk away again 2-3 games into the season? If he's so good and a proven #1, then why has he only had one 1k yards season in his career prior to 2021? If there wasn't a strong, deep WR class in this year's draft, it might be something that we needed to do. If there wasn't an option or two in FA, then it might be something we needed to do. Thankfully, there are a couple of options in FA and there IS a strong and deep WR Class in the draft. I understand wanting a proven vet, but one season doesn't really prove that Ridley is the answer. If his mental health issues are serious enough, he needs to focus on those and forget about football. His health should come first. For his sake, hopefully, his issues aren't that serious, he'll be fine, and be able to resume his career. I'm sure that JD will vet the situation fully. If he decides to trade for Ridley, I will hope that I was wrong and will root for Ridley, but I hope that he doesn't. I think the Jets need to add a young WR in the draft that can grow with Zach. Also, trading down from #4 to #8 should net more than a late 1st.
No we don't have a Mike Williams. We have what appears to be a bust in Mims, or at least not a scheme fit. The Jets should not count on him. I want Treylon Burks in the draft.
1. We don’t know the 1st thing about his issues, maybe he just hates Atlanta. I have no doubt JD believes he’s building the the type of environment Ridley would be able to excel in mentally and schematically. 2. Most receivers need to be In the league 1year to get acclimated and up to speed. His 1st year, he only started 5 games, hence under 1000 yards. Yr 2 he was the #2 behind a HOF WR and he ended up with almost 900 yards. Yr 3 he stepped up when the HOF went in IR and got well over 1k yds receiving. Yr 4 he took off. It seems like a pretty clear trajectory to me. 3. I am not as impressed with the FA class as you are and we already got a WR to “grow with Wilson” last year. I do like Williams and Wilson for our scheme but btw FA and the draft: why draft a wr who needs time to develop and overpay for a LB when we could sign a plug and play WR and draft a plug and play rockstar LB/S? 4. I’m just going by the trade valuation chart, What do you think a trade from 4 to 8 should be worth?
I’m talking about Corey Davis…. The 6’2 contested catch WR we have in the roster for at least 1 more year.
I didn't say that I was impressed with the FA class. I just said that there were some options there. As starters, since Godwin got hurt, I think it's pretty much M. Williams, Allen Robinson, and Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster, but don't think JD would have any interest in Ju-Ju. Robinson is older and didn't have a good season this past year, but could bounce back, help our young WRs learn, and he could give Zach a reliable target. There are also at least 4-5 good depth WRs there since neither Crowder nor Cole are likely to be back, and even Berrios may be gone. Yes, we got Moore to grow with Zach, but he isn't a #1 WR and never will be imo. Davis isn't a #1 either, and after this past season, I don't trust his hands at all. I don't go by that chart, and I don't think most NFL teams do, either. It cost the Jets three 2nd round picks to move up from #6 to #3 in 2018. Other teams have given up a lot more to move up 4-5 spots. At a minimum, I think it should be a 1st, a 2nd and maybe a 4th. Being in the top 5 one is position to take a true blue chip player. At #8, one may not be. As good as JD is at trades, I don't think he'd move down 4 spots for that little in return, but I could be mistaken.
There will be parades in our streets and riots in another city, if someone trades next years 1st and a 2nd this year to move up 4 spots and not even get the #1 or #2 overall. Robinson and Williams are both Davis clones IMO. JuJu isn’t happening here. Ridley is the best receiver for our scheme available this off season. I’ve been a fan of drafting Williams/Wilson for a while but if we can pick up Ridley in FA that opens up a ton of options for the draft. 3 top 35 picks Gardner (CB), Dean (LB), and Enagbare (EDGE) give this D an instant facelift on all 3 levels. TE in FA, S in FA Trade for a WR, RG with our #38 and we have a starting lineup of a professional football team. I was one of the few people that gave our secondary respect before the season started and they did well, but adding a plug and play rockstar gives us quality and depth at corner for years. But that’s just my pov. Im looking forward to seeing how it all turns out.
The chart, especially when you're dealing with the top of the draft is trash. IIRC if you go by trades from the last 10-12 years, the price of a trade up correlated a lot more with ESPN/Scouts Inc's rating grade for the QB in question than the actual trade chart. Also, the fact that no one has traded into the top 5 for a non-QB in like 8 years is a reminder that such an asking price for a non-QB are not going to be met.
With regards to the last paragraph, you're probably right, but a team desperate enough for an LT or CB might do it. Let's also not forget that people said that JD would never get much in a trade for Adams.
Thanks. In that scenario, I wouldn't have accepted the deal. A second next year is like a 3rd round pick this year, and it doesn't help us this year. It's too little in return to move down that far, and too little this year. It's really an insult. At a minimum, I would have demanded #20 and their 2nd this year, and probably more. I may not have gotten it but moving down 10 spots, one misses out on a lot of excellent prospects. If a team covets a player, then they have to pay for the privilege of moving up and getting him. I'm not gonna just hand them the pick like the author of the article did or would have.
Just for reference sake, here are all the trade-ups into the top 6 for a non-QB since 2011 when the rookie scale was introduced. Pick cost in parenthesis and the draft values are from drafttek.com. These trades imply that the future pick is worth the same as the same pick in the present, which we know 2011: Julio Jones 6th (26, 59, 118, 124 and a 2012 No. 1 that was pick 22). The Falcons traded 1,896 points in "value" for 1,600 points. 2012: Trent Richardson 3rd (4, 118, 139, 211) The Browns traded 1,899.9 points for 2,200 points. 2012: Justin Blackmon 5th (7, 101) The Jaguars traded 1,596 points for 1,700 points. 2012: Morris Claiborne 6th (14, 45) The Cowboys traded 1,550 points for 1,600 points. 2013: Dion Jordan 3rd (12, 42) The Dolphins traded 1,680 points for 2,200 points. 2014: Sammy Watkins 4th (9, a 2015 No. 1 that was pick 19 and a 2015 4th rounder that was pick 115) The Bills traded 2,289 points for 1,800 points. 2021: Jaylen Waddle 6th + pick 156 (12,123 and a 2022 1st rounder that is pick 15) The Dolphins traded 2,299 points for 1,627.4 points Based on the trade chart, Julio, Watkins and Waddle were the only ones where the team trading up ended up giving excess value. I hesitate to put much stock in Waddle trade since it was made 2 months before the draft and in reality, part of a 3-team trade. Due to the timing, we can't say Miami was trading for a specific player in the way the others ones did. In total, the teams trading up dealt 13,209.9 points in value for 12,727.4 points, or 103.79% of the pick's value. The small sample size I think further demonstrates the difficulty of even getting 100% value for a non-QB in the top 6.
Jets could potentially control the run of QBs at 10. Denver is the first team that could take a QB and they pick 9th. Jets pick 10th. Washington picks 11th. Let's say Denver opts for a veteran option like Watson or someone else not named Aaron Rodgers because he's not leaving GB. The Jets will then control the run of QBs because Washington will definitely take a QB. Someone like Minnesota (Cousins is a FA next season), Pittsburgh, or NOLA could move up to 10.
Thanks for the research. It's interesting and a little surprising. Still, unless as the GM I had a burning desire to trade down, I'm not going to take what I consider to be mediocre compensation for moving down 10 spots in the 1st round, especially moving down out of the top 10. That said I know the value of the 10th pick is less if there aren't 10 blue chip prospects, and frequently there aren't. When one trades down however, unless one just doesn't like the next 10 players that one considers likely to be picked, one forfeits the opportunity to take one of those players, who may play a position of need. I see no way a future pick has the same value as one this year. We all know that the future pick could wind up having a lot less value if that team is drafting lower in the following draft, and the player one can take with that pick can't help your team for another year. Even if one has the next group of players rated all exactly equal or pretty much the same, then there's a chance at least one of them would be a scheme fit and plays a position of need. Trading down with the idea of taking a player one really likes but has valued around 10 spots lower is really risky, and gambling that one will lose that player, just like Mac lost out on Kamara by trading down. IMO if one really likes a player, one should worry less about value and more about getting that player unless another team makes it really worth your while to pass up on said player. Let's say that the Jets love Treylon Burks, but have him rated around 19-21 in the draft. IMO trading down that ten spots for a 2nd round pick next year would be dumb. There's a strong chance that they'd win up not getting Burks, some other team that would then be ahead of him would take him, or some team would trade up and take him, and then one is left with a pick that won't help you for a year, and you didn't get the great prospect at a position of glaring need that was a great scheme fit.
Two points 1. I'm guessing a lot of people agree with your sentiment on the future picks. It's not a coincidence that the 3 "over pays" were ones that future picks and probably aren't/weren't viewed as quite the overpays as the charts would indicate. 2. I think your line of thinking is also a big reason for why you don't see many trades in the top 5-6.
Awesome work dude. Pretty crazy that 3/7 of those guys ended up having off the field issues (Richardson, Jordan, Blackmon) and Mo Claiborne is notoriously not a very smart person.
What? That all you want to move down 10 spots by my trade going from 4 to 8 you want another 1st plus more? I feel like your valuations are a bit backwards.
Interesting development here. I believe this is the guy @wewantsapp is heavy on. Someone knows something.
I wouldn't be mad about Ekwonu at 4 if Neal isn't there... He's a good player and can play OG while they figure out the Becton situation. OTs would be Fant/Becton/Ekwonu next year
