Holmes' contract isn't the problem, it's the fact that he doesn't gaf about anyone but himself. Not sure about his contract specs but the dead money hike in Feb 2012 for 2013 may have elevated him from borderline untradeable to if-we-trade-him-now-we'll-lose-more-money-than-if-we-keep-him-and-cut-him. Thus, trading Holmes will likely put us in a worse position to re-sign Revis, much less sign MJD. As for Plax, he's a lockerroom cancer and the likely source to the press criticizing Sanchez. I'd rather we sign Ochocinco. At least he hasn't had the opportunity to spurn the Jets yet.
I certainly would not trade Holmes for MJD. I just can't justify trading our best play maker on offense and longest tenured receiver under Sanchez for a RB reaching the end of his career. People are just down on Holmes. I get it, but that was last season. Let's move on. Reality matters. Holmes is not getting traded. That would be a crippling blow to Sanchez, and we'd be back in 2009 mode but with a weaker oline. I think we need to be in 2010 mode, with a balance rush & pass attack and somewhat stable offensive line. If we make any trades, it should be for RT, and shouldn't break any chemistry with Sanchez, especially not 2 weeks before the season starts.
I wouldn't quite classify MJD as a guy reaching the end of his career. He's 27 and has about 1500 carries. You know who else is 27 with almost as many carries? Adrian Peterson. Nobody would say he is reaching the end of his days, would they? I would imagine MJD has at minimum 3 extremely productive years left.
Curtis Martin had 3500 carries, so he has to be nearing the end. 1,000 carries in 2012 and 2013, he is done.
The way I figure MJD is that his length of career is likely to be tied directly to what happens next season. He took 343 carries last year, after having 611 combined in 2009 and 2010. If he gets upwards of that trend next year he's probably going to break down pretty quickly after that. Certainly if he's used for a lot of carries in 2012 and 2013. If he's used for about 300 carries he probably has a good 3 more years at that level before the probability is that he breaks down. So figure with the current trend that he's done by 29 or so. If he's used as a mainstay but not driven into the ground he's probably going to last to 30. If somebody acquired him and actually tried to maintain the resource they might get 5 years out of him at this point. That would mean capping him at about 275 carries a year and making sure he didn't have a really heavy workload in one of the years that might finish him. Curtis Martin had over 3100 carries going into his 31 year. The Jets gave him 371 carries that year. The odds that wasn't going to finish him were really low. It was a great year though. Curtis was the reason the Jets made some noise even after Chad's shoulder had gone out again. Those two guys were among the toughest players to play for any Jets team I ever rooted for. Curtis never let injuries slow him down until he was beat down at the end and Chad played in some silly situations with his arm hanging by a thread. You know who the next QB in the game was in 2005 when Chad went out with a shoulder injury and then Fiedler went out with a shoulder injury on the very next drive? Chad, of course, and he finished the game.
The Colts only got a 2 and a 5 for Marshall Faulk in his prime, I don't know what the Jags think they can get since they really have very little leverage at this point with MJD not playing at all.
The Jags are going to be looking for a 2nd and a player is my guess. Somebody they can put on the field this year and placate the fans who will be outraged that they let MJD hold his way out of town. Somebody they can draft in the 2nd next year and think he might help the team long after MJD is retired.
would love him but he wants too much and we have too little cap. He would redefine ground and pound for us, we would be the top rushing team in the league
While I don't think MJD is nearing the end of his career, bringing up a runningback that just blew his knee out last season is hardly knocking it out of the park in terms of convincing comparisons. Peterson's injury just may have cut his career in half.
I'd say so. The thing caught one of Tebow's wounded ducks. A seven year contact is not out of the question.
MJD is more than just a runner, he's a good blocker and receiver. So many aspects of this offense would improve. Except for Mangold, I don't see anybody on offense who can consistently play at such an elite level. MJD can break tackles and he's far superior at the cut back. MJD also has much better vision and is capable of making his OL look much better when running behind them. He's a game breaker and there's plenty of 3-4 yard Greene runs that MJD can rip into longer gains. Also, let's say MJD only has two years left in his prime. When MJD begins to decline, he's not going to be an overnight scrub. He'll still be a top RB but won't be as good as MJD in his prime. By that time Sanchez will also have two more years of NFL experience and be more capable of leading the offense. Kerley, White, Vlad all would have two more years of experience on them also. If Holmes isn't productive, it'll be easier to unload him after a couple years. The offense as a whole will be in better shape even with a MJD beginning his decline from elite. Everyone should be interested in a player like MJD. Jets are different from every team in the NFL because they can offer the Jags somebody that can consistently pack that stadium. Ask the Jags what they want included in a Tebow package & then re-evaluate. If MJD requires a #1 or a couple or #2 then Tanny can tell the Jags to take a long walk on a short pier. However, it's one conditional pick from rounds #2 to #4 round plus Tebow then the trigger needs to be pulled.
We know MJD would make the team better. The question is, how do we afford his contract? Next year we have to pay Revis, and either sign / replace Keller, Slauson, Maybin, Landry, and Bell. Plus Pace, Scott, Moore and Thomas are likely done after this year. I just don't see it in the realm of possible. We have like 6 million in cap space now, we can't frontload it this year or next, so what do we do? We can't kill the rest of the team for MJD a year before the superbowl comes to our stadium. I say build with what we have. Maybe bring in a RT. We did bring in a lot of young talent this year with the draft. More than we have in a long time. I like that, especially the safety unit picks.
