If a team is drafting off of BPA, then the amount of good pass rushers in the draft should not make a difference. Plus, comparing Jarvis Jones and Margus Hunt is ridiculous. They are completely different players. Hunt weighs 40 pounds more and is about 6 inches taller. Plus, I would assume that Hunt will play on the defensive line while Jones probably will only fit in a 3-4 scheme where he can be a pass rushing OLB. Yes, pass rushers are a strength this year, but that should make no difference. I believe Hunt will go to the combine and blow up. Its happened before and it will happen again. JJ Watt was never incredibly productive in college, but he went to the combine, blew up because of his freakish athletic ability and became the 11th pick based on his potential. Also, if these pre-combine numbers on Hunt are legit, then I would be shocked if anyone else had a better combine than him. Someone his size should be running a 5+ second 40 time, and should barely be able to get off the ground, yet his vertical is 8 inches more than the average NBA player. Plus, he will probably end up running one of the ten fastest 40 times ever for a defensive lineman, and probably the fastest for a defensive lineman that is over 250 pounds. Looking at the 40 times from previous drafts. The defensive lineman that ran sub 4.6 times were all college defensive ends who ended up being OLB's in the NFL or very small defensive ends in a 4-3 scheme. So, I highly doubt that anyone will go to combine and impress more than Hunt. Either way, he is a consensus late second round to early third round pick now. He is hardly an unknown to scouts. Its really not such a stretch to say he will be a first round pick. Yes, maybe its a stretch to say that he will be a top ten pick. I admit that its just a bold prediction, nothing more than just a wild guess, but its hardly ridiculous to say that he will be a first round pick.
JJ Watt didnt become the 11th overall pick based on potential. He was one of the best players in the nation. Period. He was a leader of a very good defense and was productive and commanded a lot of attention in a good conference. He didnt put up elite numbers but saying he was drafted off potential primarily is stupid. Watch the tape and quit looking at numbers.
Sorry, let me just whip out my videos of JJ Watt. Since I don't have have tape on him, I am going off of numbers. His numbers were good, not great. Please don't tell me that he was drafted based off of production. His stats were not worthy of being the 11th overall pick. Even if you factor in that he was the leader of his defense, and that he played in a good conference, and he commanded a lot of attention, his stats combined with all of those factors don't add up to Watt being the #11 pick. He was drafted based off of mostly potential. Anyway, this thread isn't even about Watt. The point is, many players go to combine and blow up. Whether you think that was the case for Watt or not, he is just an example of the multiple players who have elevated their draft stock big time from going to the combine.
I first notice this guy about a month ago, and was intrigued by his measurable's. I have been waiting to watch him since I first noticed him, and was impressed with what I saw last night. The question is, and we won't know until the combine and pro days, is what his lateral movement is like. Watching his video's you can see that he has good snap instincts, power, and moves to get to the quarterback. He is able to keep blockers at bay with his long arms, as seen on videos. However, as an OLB, we are going to need to see what is natural movements are like in space. Does he fall back on his heels coming out of a backpedal, does he keep his weight over his feet in a strafe, Does he have tight hips to turn and run, etc. The best thing about him is he only has played competitive football for 4 years. He hasn't really learned anything yet, and is a virtually a blank slate.
Well, I have not seen enough of him to make that judgement, but I watched him yesterday blow right by a RT on a pure speed move. Wikipedia also lists him as running a 4.6. I can't answer your lateral movement questions perfectly, but I think that should give you a pretty good idea that he is incredibly mobile for a defensive lineman.
Basing a draft prospects off of stats is about the dumbest thing one can do. If you have not been following the draft long enough to remember Watts draft year then sit back and listen to those who have. To get all snarky because people like Lax disagree with you is silly and a good way to not learn a damn thing about the draft.
I remember his draft year, I just have never been someone that spends time watching tape. I see what I see from games on TV, and I read what I read from guys like Kiper and McShay online. This was a scouting report that was written about Watt: University of Wisconsin defensive end J.J. Watt is an up-and-coming prospect with excellent fundamentals who plays to the whistle with toughness. Watt has great size and a frame that can add more weight and muscle. He has a great awareness to bat down passes, fill running lanes and pressure the quarterback. He's not especially skilled at disengaging in blocks and creating pressure, he just plays so tough, the game naturally comes to him. You also see good strength and quickness in bull rush. Watt has great intangibles, including his work ethic and leadership. He has a ton of special teams experience and is very durable. He needs to continue to improve his athleticism and gain experience on the finer nuances of the game such as understanding plays and reading the offense. Since he plays so aggressively, he runs himself out of position. Due to his scheme versatility and intelligence, he could play multiple positions along a four-man front. Finished 2010 with 61 total tackles, 20.5 tackles for loss and 7 sacks. Watt was named to the 2010 All-Big Ten first team. Against the run, he is adequate at containment and occupying double teams. Coming off the line, he does well using his hands to attack blockers and swipe away their hands and arms. He will need to continue to develop, add weight and possibly learn a new position at the next level because he fits almost anywhere in any 3-4 or 4-3 defense. At the 2011 NFL Combine, he finished amongst the top five in the broad jump, bench press, vertical jump, three-cone drill and 20-yard shuttle. Watt projects as a first-round lock in the 2011 NFL Draft with a strong potential to be selected amongst the top 15 picks. Back to my point. I am not saying Watt was bad in college, but he was never dominant. He had good production, but not great production. Even the article admits, he had a very good combine. Now combine the draft combine with good college production and you get a guy that becomes the 11th pick. He wasn't all potential and he wasn't all production. However, my original point was that Watt was a player that benefited from the combine. His draft stock certainly went up.
I don't pay a huge ammount of attention to any one write up. I tend to watch games and see a ton of stuff on the web. It's to the point n the past few years when you can find whole games focusing on most prospects and seeing 30 or so snaps in 5 mins. It's not like people are spending their whole life watching these guys to get an opinion. Back to Watt and your beloved scouting by stats. If you want to believe he was not dominant, not even the stats back you up. He had 20.5 tackles for loss in his final season, Hunt has 25 in four years at SMU. His 6.5 tackles for loss this year puts him Far off Watts final season. Only Jarvis jones and Werner in this draft stack up to Watt in making plays behind the line. Continue to think he was not dominant though.
Just watched his tape. Gotta like his ability no doubt..but I think he's a DL type only. He's at his best w/ his hand in the dirt playing downhill. He's alittle limited out in space. The Pass rush prospects Rex will like are Donatrius Moore, Javoris Jenkins & Dion Jordan.
The Pitt tape shows 2-3 instances when he's put out into the short flat. His frame allows him to cover decent ground but the stiffness in the hips is fairly obvious.
