Your ranking of positional importance on defense is almost the exact opposite of what wins above replacement says they are. Interior DL/DT is the least important position group in all of football. CB's and S's are the most important positions on defense.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ My understanding of our D is it relies on pressure more than coverage. 49ers drafted a DL like 7 years in a row so I think it has legs.
Wins above replacement is full of shit if it rates either CB or S over DE/Edge unless it's biased towards 3-4 alignments. I think position importance varies from team to team depending upon what schemes they run, but in general QB is most important, LT the second most important, and Edge/DE the 3rd most important. CB is probably in the top 5, but not S.
WAR ranks positional importance as: QB WR S CB TE IOL OT ED LB RB DI To me that makes a lot of sense. Offense is more important than defense and passing is more important than running. It just makes sense that the most important positions are the guys throwing and catching passes and the guys defending those passes. This also aligns with what we see every year in the playofffs - the best teams are the teams with the best passing offenses. The OL spots being ranked in the middle makes sense to me too. Having a good OL is more about having no weak spots rather than having elite guys at some spots and awful guys at others. An elite tackle isn't going to take over a game like an elite WR can. Everyone bashed the Bengals for taking Chase over Sewell and it's turned out to be exactly the right move. They've been lighting up the league through the air this year.
Thanks for posting this, but I disagree with it. If a QB doesn't have time to throw the ball, the WR is not going to do him much good. I can understand the CB being rated so high, but not S, and not above CB. What is the rationale for that?
I guess the thought process is that a bad OL can be overcome by getting good WR's the ball on short routes and letting them do damage after the catch. A good OL isn't going to turn bad receivers into explosive playmakers though. Regarding S being ranked as more important than CB, it's by a very slim margin and I'm not sure I agree with it either. I'd think an elite CB is more valuable than an elite S.
Not sure I agree with it, but it certainly is interesting to see there. Due to the volume of WRs/CBs you need now, I can certainly see why they rank higher in WAR. I also wonder if that's why IOL is higher than OT. Just a theory here, but maybe LB/DI (and also RB) are more likely to have specialist roles than other positions. In general though with the exception of QB and RB, I lean towards the elite talent even if it's at a "less important" position than a merely good player at a more important spot.
One way I've seen it described is that OL as a unit is more about having high floor players across the board whereas a CB/WR unit is impacted more by the best single player in the unit and how high their ceiling is. Also for what it's worth regarding IOL/OT - they're almost identical in importance. Here's that same list with the actual values which adds some context: QB 2.51 WR .70 S .60 CB .50 TE .34 IOL .32 OT .30 ED .28 LB .27 RB .21 DI .19 Pretty hilarious that the Jets spent much of the last decade sinking high first round picks into the least important position in the entire game. Very Jetsy.
It certainly is Jets-like. Of course, I'd say the bigger issue, far more than position is that between Quinnen, Leonard Williams, Richardson, Coples and Wilkerson they combined to make 3 pro bowls in 23 seasons as Jets more than the concentration of it in one spot. For 5 first round picks (4 within the top half of the first), that rate certainly makes it easy to explain they're pitiful record the past decade.
Yeah, I think that's also just part of the deal with IDL. There are just very few guys who truly make an impact at that position, so drafting them expecting them to make an impact is very foolish. Everyone's trying to mimic what the Rams have with Donald but he's an extreme outlier at IDL. A guy like him comes along once every 20 years or so but some teams act like there's one every draft. Premium draft capital should only be spent on edge rushers if you have to go DL.
Fair point but the positions from TE down to LB are all really close in importance. I'd group all those positions roughly together.
I see what you're saying on this one and the more I think about how many snaps DL (and especially DTs) play, it makes sense why they would be so low on the positional WAR. You definitely need depth (so I'll never argue with quantity of picks there), but with the true freaks, they just largely don't play enough snaps to justify the high cost. Per lineups.com's snap count totals, 155 defensive players have played 75% or more of their team's defensive snaps. Of that 155, only 4 DTs and 10 DEs are on that list. Admittedly there might be some edge guys listed at OLB that weren't counted, but the WAR chart certainly makes a lot more sense now. Edit: By comparison of the 32 defensive players to have played 95% or more of their team's defensive snaps, 18 are safeties, 8 cornerbacks and 6 linebackers.
Again, you're using a guideline and making it a hard and fast rule, and I will always disagree with that. With QBs most disrupted by interior pass pressure, and it usually gets there quicker than the outside rush, not taking a DT who could potentially provide that pressure because some statistician said that you shouldn't is pretty stupid imo. Couple that with the fact that even the best CBs in the NFL can only stay with their receiver for 3-4 seconds max, and it's a recipe for disaster, and why I think whoever came up with WAR rating of positions is full of shit.
Interior pressure is certainly deadly for a quarterback, but if you think about it, it’s easier to neutralize a good defensive tackle because they’re lining up on a double team if the offense shifts that way. And both players that would be blocking the interior rusher are only blockers. An edge rusher is harder to neutralize because you usually have to take an eligible receiver (TE/RB/FB) to slow them down. I don’t look at positional value when analyzing draft prospects much though. Every position on the football field can be impactful if they’re a good to great player. Corner, receiver and tackle are all arguably more important. Would anyone take Justin Blackmon, Mo Claiborne or Matt Kalil over Luke Kuechly when using hindsight though? Or RG3 for that matter?
I think WAR is just a piece of data that should be analyzed, not used as a guide. There is a ton I’d like to say about this statistic and I probably can’t even get to all of it. The biggest thing about WAR I think that it’s more of an indicator of where to build depth, not where to spend 1st round picks necessarily. To me, QB is an outlier and should be ignored. It’s the most important piece of any roster according to any metric. After moving down the list, if WAR score indicates there is a heavy drop off from starter to backup in WR, then you probably shouldn’t draft WR’s in the 1st. You should try to draft them literally every year in the 2nd or 3rd. If that’s something you commit to, you’ll have 4-5 starting caliber WR’s consistently. Marry quantity with quality for this position. The reason to draft OL high is to ensure the safety of your QB, because that is your number 1 WAR position. Is Joe Burrow good enough to win with a bad OL? Yes, but not if he misses a playoff game because he got hit while dropping a dime TD late in the year. Can a great OL and QB combo get by without it’s starting Guard? Yes. But you have to earn that great QB and OL first. When you look at Safety and Corner as the next two on the list, the biggest issue is the same with WR… depth. If you make it a priority to acquire at least 2 DB’s in the 2nd/3rd/4th basically every year, you will eventually will have a very deep rotation on the defensive backfield. Do you need to go 1st? Not necessarily, the goal would be to make your starters and backups all to be starter or near starter level players. The reason is that one atrocious player at a DB position can be repeatedly victimized throughout a game or series of games. I could be wrong but I’m guessing TE being high is a result of 2 things. 1. Most non starter TE’s don’t have a dual blocking/receiving skill set. You are not likely to have multiple TE’s who have both, so just make sure you have backups who can do at least 1 well. 2. Elite playmaker TE’s are so rare that if one is a major part of your offense, it’s quite impossible to replace that production at the same position. Another reason not to spend high picks there. I think when you look at LB’s and Safeties in particular, the difference between decent, good and very good is probably not as great as at other positions. It’s where the stigma has come from to not take them in the first round. The real thing that sets apart players at those positions, and makes them worthy of 1st round picks, are rare abilities to generate turnovers. That’s why Darius Leonard is so special at position where some teams get by with so little. In terms of positive defensive plays, this is how they rank in terms of impact. 1. Turnover 2. Sack 3. Tackle for Loss 4. Pass Defensed 5. Run Stop 6. Tackle In my opinion you need to target skills over positions.
Across the entire league. If I'm understanding correctly, I think you're saying that you generally shouldn't take the most important positions high in the draft. WAR implies the exact opposite, that getting good starters at important positions is paramount because a simply average starter at those important positions results in a far lower contribution to wins. By taking a bunch of later-round players for the most important positions you're basically just guaranteeing that you'll have a large number of replacement-level players. If we look at OL, which is middle of the pack in WAR, then your stance seems to be correct. Having no blatant weak spots at OL is more important to having a good overall line than having a stud at 1-2 spots and below-average guys at the others. OL is also lower in WAR because it's possible to hide a bad OL through scheme and playmakers. If you can get explosive players the ball in space quickly then it doesn't matter as much if your OL cannot hold blocks. That does not work the other way around - an elite OL is not going to turn an average receiver into Ja'Marr Chase.
I agree with and like all the rest, but don't understand the bold. How do you deduce that? If WR is so important (the second most important position), and if the dropoff from starter to backup is big, how does that say that one should never draft WRs in the 1st round, but rather the 2nd and 3rd? In fact, I think it says the exact opposite. With it being such an important position, then one should take the best prospects one can every year until one has excellent depth at that position, and that generally means 1st round WRs. I can see perhaps 1-2 2nd round WRs if you have established studs as starters, but not 3rd round.
I’ll try to answer @NCJetsfan here too. WAR means Wins Above Replacement, not most important players. What it specifically means is “what is the average drop off in effectiveness between a starter and a backup as measured by wins.” I don’t really love the statistic but even so, I don’t look at it as a guide of where to try and get the best player (again, QB excluded). What this stat tells you is that going from your starter WR to a backup WR costs you a number of wins on average. Even if you have Ja’Marr Chase, or Justin Jefferson, you suffer from WAR exactly the same if you have to replace him with a guy like Keelan Cole as you would if replacing a lesser but good starter like Brandin Cooks with a Keelan Cole. The way to improve your roster to mitigate WAR is to prioritize depth at the positions with the highest WAR score. How do you make the Jets roster the outlier to WR WAR? -You already have 2 viable starters in Corey Davis and Elijah Moore for the next 2 years. -So, draft high quality WR’s in the 2nd round for 2 more consecutive drafts. -By the 2023 regular season, your WR depth chart looks like Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, 2nd rounder, 2nd rounder. -If you are good at drafting and developing, at least one of those 2nd round WR’s will be a starting level player who doesn’t need to start, instead of a backup level player, if not both. -Continue the cycle, either trading away players periodically, or using the comp pick system to keep the stock of picks high. -The system doesn’t work with 1st round picks, because you can’t just go back to the same position in the 1st round year after year after year. -Use the 1st round to acquire rare, high impact skill sets that fit your scheme. It’s not that you can’t draft a WR round 1, but he needs to have a truly rare skill set to justify it, since if you want to beat WAR you still need to consistently draft other WR’s in the 2nd/3rd in following years. Try to use this with DB’s as well. The higher the WAR score, the more interested I am in having 4 guys who I’m confident can play. Using 1st round picks at those positions discourages this kind of building, that’s why I would want to focus on rare, high impact skills. Here’s something to remember also: WAR score is likely to to be naturally low for DL. DL are the most heavily rotated players in the NFL even when the entire unit is healthy. Since teams already prioritize DL depth for this reason, a “backup” DL may already have a decent snap percentage and be a quality player. Thus, when a “starter” is injured, WAR would calculate his “backup” as a “replacement” despite the fact that the player is a pseudo-starter already.
