ESPN+ article so reproducing up to pick #38 below. Love this draft for NYJ. 1. Jacksonville Jaguars Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan There's really no need to overthink things here. Hutchinson is the best prospect in this class -- an edge rusher who could average 12 sacks a year for a decade -- and he plays a premier position. He could play as a stand-up outside linebacker or hand-in-the-dirt end for the Jaguars, meeting quarterbacks in the backfield with 2019 first-rounder Josh Allen. 2. Detroit Lions Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, CB, Cincinnati Can I interest you in a 6-foot-3 corner with long arms and 4.41 40-yard dash speed who didn't allow a single touchdown in coverage in college? That's Gardner. The Lions have several needs and would likely jump at Aidan Hutchinson if he somehow fell here. But if they select Gardner and get something out of Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft who has played just 10 games in two seasons, they could have a much-improved secondary. 3. Houston Texans Travon Walker, DE, Georgia I don't think anyone outside the organization really knows what the Texans will do in Round 1. For this mock, I'm trying to think long-term with Houston, which just has to add some talent. Walker is a bit of a risk in the top 10; NFL teams are betting that his physical tools will win out over his subpar college production (9.5 sacks in three seasons). Coaches want to try to maximize that upside. There is a lot of buzz on Walker going early. 4. New York Jets Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon I'm not buying a Thibodeaux drop. He might be the most talented prospect in this class. The Jets have to add some juice to their pass rush, and this is the spot to do it. It's also not out of the question that they take a receiver here -- Drake London or Garrett Wilson? -- because their top guy might be off the board by the time they pick at No. 10. 5. New York Giants Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State If the board shakes out this way, the Giants would have to be thrilled to get their pick of the top two offensive tackles. I have Ekwonu just slightly over Evan Neal, but it's tough to go wrong with either -- they are my Nos. 2 and 3 prospects in this class. Ekwonu answered every question about his pass-protection ability last season. If left tackle Andrew Thomas keeps improving, these two could form one of the NFL's best bookend pairings. 6. Carolina Panthers Malik Willis, QB, Liberty Doesn't Carolina coach Matt Rhule have to take a swing on a quarterback here? The Panthers don't have second- or third-round picks. Rhule will enter the season on the hot seat, and this is his chance to buy some time with a high-ceiling rookie signal-caller. Willis is going to make some mistakes, but he will be fun to watch. He might nail a perfect deep ball to Robby Anderson and then throw a pick in the red zone on the next play. But he's going to keep getting better with time, and Carolina does have some skill position talent to help him. 7. New York Giants (via CHI) Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State The Giants can get their tackle at No. 5 and then focus on their defense, which allowed 4.7 yards per play last season (31st in the NFL). Johnson had 12 sacks last season and was one of the most impressive prospects at the Senior Bowl in January. He already has a few veteran pass-rush moves and can be an instant starter. He also played a lot of outside linebacker for the Seminoles, so he will have some versatility in Don Martindale's defense. And if you're keeping track, this makes four edge rushers in the top seven picks. 8. Atlanta Falcons Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State I'm going to stick with this prediction because ... who is Marcus Mariota going to throw to next season? The Falcons just don't have any starting-caliber receivers. Wilson can run every route and beat defenders after the catch. He could be the early favorite for Rookie of the Year if he lands here -- he'd get a bunch of targets. Atlanta will likely be tracking the edge rushers closely, but there isn't value at this point on my board. 9. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN) Evan Neal, OT, Alabama This is another team that ends up with an ideal scenario. Veteran left tackle Duane Brown is still unsigned, so Neal could start from Day 1. It just makes too much sense. I'm not a huge believer that Drew Lock will be Seattle's quarterback answer for the long term, but Neal could be a stalwart on the left side for years to come. 10. New York Jets (via SEA) Drake London, WR, USC If the Jets can pull this off -- a top-tier receiver here and a high-upside edge rusher at No. 4 -- shouldn't they be considered one of the most improved teams of the offseason? I like what they've done, and they haven't had to break the bank. Of course, that doesn't mean they're going to be AFC East contenders just yet. London is a 6-foot-4 target who will dominate in the red zone and pull down 50-50 balls to boost Zach Wilson's completion percentage.
11. Washington Commanders Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame Hamilton has been dinged a little bit because of his 40 time, which was a 4.59 at the combine and a little slower at his pro day. He's a fantastic player, but he doesn't have rare physical tools, which means he could fall out of the top 10. I would want him on my team. At 6-foot-4, he could play multiple positions, from center fielder to box linebacker. He would make plays for a Washington defense that disappointed in 2021. 12. Minnesota Vikings Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU This is a great fit for both sides. The Vikings could get a corner with an elite, All-Pro ceiling and plug a hole, while Stingley could join a team with a few other former LSU stars (Justin Jefferson, Danielle Hunter, Patrick Peterson). The concern about Stingley is that his best tape is from 2019, when he starred as a true freshman. Can he return to form in the NFL -- and stay healthy? That's a risk teams will have to consider. Still, I feel better making that bet at No. 12 than if I were picking in the top five. 13. Houston Texans (via CLE) Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State I'm going to stick to my board here, and since my top 11 prospects have all been picked (plus Malik Willis), I'll move on to No. 12. Cross is a superb pass-blocker who needs some refinement in the run game -- because he just didn't get the reps to do so while playing for Mike Leach. If the Texans are going to give Davis Mills the 2022 season to prove he's their guy at quarterback, Mills needs a better right tackle. That could be Cross. 14, Baltimore Ravens[/paste:font] Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington The Ravens could go in several directions here, including offensive tackle (will Ronnie Stanley ever be the same again?) and defensive end (Calais Campbell is back, but he's 35). When I look at this depth chart, though, I see corner depth as an issue. McDuffie has the versatility to play outside and in the slot, and he also will wrap up and bring down ball carriers in the run game. He's physical. 15. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA) Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State After last week's trade with the Saints, the Eagles now have one fewer first-round pick, but you have to think they'll take a receiver with one of them, right? If they're committed to using 2022 as an evaluation year for Jalen Hurts, the should give him the tools to succeed. Olave had seven touchdowns out of the slot last season, but he can move outside, too, and use his 4.39 40 speed to get open. Hurts would love throwing to him and DeVonta Smith, with Dallas Goedert working the middle of the field. 16. New Orleans Saints (via PHI/IND) Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa Speaking of the Saints, I have a hard time believing they traded picks with the Eagles for the purpose of taking a quarterback. Why wouldn't they try to move up higher? (Unless there's another move to come?) It's possible they think they are NFC contenders this season and could be put over the edge with two more starters. With that in mind, here's a tackle who could replace Terron Armstead on the left side. Penning is a nasty, physical blocker who is ready to play immediately. 17. Los Angeles Chargers Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia The Chargers need a right tackle, but with Trevor Penning off the board, I don't feel great about the value here. In fact, my next tackle in this mock doesn't go off the board until No. 42. Let's move instead to another need for L.A. and fill it with Davis, who at 6-foot-6 and 341 pounds is used to being a hole-filler. He has unique physical tools for his size, and he makes everyone around him better because of the space he eats. This is how Brandon Staley's defense can level up in 2022. 18. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO) Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia I see a massive void in the middle of the Eagles' front seven, and we're getting to the point in this draft in which an off-ball linebacker will be taken. I have Devin Lloyd just ahead of Dean in my rankings, but there are teams that will fall in love with Dean's intangibles. He's a tremendous teammate who was the leader of the national champs' historic defense. He's a little undersized, but he can play sideline to sideline. 19. New Orleans Saints (via PHI) Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama Even if Michael Thomas comes back healthy, the Saints should address wide receiver with one of their two first-round picks. Williams would have been in the discussion to be the No. 1 wideout in this class, but he tore the ACL in his left knee in the national title game in January and could miss a little time in 2022. He could be a superstar once he's healthy; he has explosive speed and was uncoverable for the Crimson Tide last season. ACL injuries aren't even close to career-ending anymore, so I don't see this as a risky pick. Williams is worth it. 20. Pittsburgh Steelers Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt I'd feel much more comfortable taking Pickett here than I would in the top 10. Best-case scenario is that he becomes a Derek Carr, and his floor is an Andy Dalton, which isn't a bad quarterback by any means. Pittsburgh can win with that. Still, those two were taken in Round 2 and didn't have Round 1 expectations surrounding them. If Pickett falls into the Steelers' laps here, he'd be tough to pass up. And he has a little more upside than Mitch Trubisky.
21. New England Patriots Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah I thought about a wide receiver and cornerback here, but Lloyd just feels like a Bill Belichick-type player. He's always around the ball, is a great blitzer from the middle of the defense and makes plays. The Patriots allowed 4.5 yards per carry last season, which ranked 25th in the league. This fills a void with an impact player. 22. Green Bay Packers (via LV) Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State There could be a run on wide receivers in the 20s, starting with the Patriots and Packers. We know Green Bay needs one after the Davante Adams trade, but I don't think general manager Brian Gutekunst is going to force it. Watson is a riser, as teams see a 6-foot-4 receiver with 4.36 40 speed and elite measurables and think he can be a big-play threat who can grow into a better route runner. Watson averaged 20.4 yards per catch in his college career. Watson is ready to contribute for Aaron Rodgers as a rookie. 23. Arizona Cardinals Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas Burks can be used in different roles -- he even ran 19 routes out of the backfield last season -- and will be dynamic after the catch. He will take screens and short passes for scores. For Arizona, this is about helping replacing Christian Kirk and getting some help for an offense that struggled when DeAndre Hopkins went down last season. 24. Dallas Cowboys Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State McShay is getting tired of me talking up Ebiketie, but I'm a fan. I wanted to find a fit for him in Round 1. The Temple transfer really improved last season, putting up 9.5 sacks. He has a powerful lower body and knows how to use his hands. The Cowboys have to find a way to replace Randy Gregory, and Ebiketie could help. They could also target a guard or wide receiver here. 25. ;Buffalo Bills[/paste:font] Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan I just moved Hill way up on my Big Board. NFL teams love his versatility -- he played more than 550 snaps at nickelback in 2021 -- and think he could play both corner and safety. He might be a slot corner if he ends up in Buffalo, which lost Levi Wallace in free agency and has Tre'Davious White returning from an ACL tear. Andrew Booth Jr. (Clemson) and Kyler Gordon (Washington) are two other corners to keep an eye on. The Bills have one of the best rosters in the league. 26. Tennessee Titans Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State The Titans need to get faster at receiver next to A.J. Brown. That's not Robert Woods' game. Dotson, who ran a 4.43 40 at the combine, caught 91 passes last season, 33 coming from the slot. He would give Ryan Tannehill more easy throws because he can scoot after the catch. Tennessee could also target the best offensive lineman available with this pick. On my board, that would be center Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa), and he could play some guard. 27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia The Bucs are another team that could take a guard in Round 1, but I see a fit with Wyatt, who could take Ndamukong Suh's spot next to Vita Vea. Wyatt played mostly as a 3-technique tackle for the Bulldogs, but he could play end in a 3-4 defense, too. He wasn't a super productive pass-rusher (2.5 sacks last season), but he has the physical tools that coordinators will want to mold. Cornerback could be a possibility for Tampa Bay as well. 28. Green Bay Packers Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College Johnson's positional flex is impressive to teams, as he dominated as a guard last season -- he didn't allow a single pressure -- and took snaps at center at the Senior Bowl. He'd most likely play guard in Green Bay, which lost Lucas Patrick in free agency. Packers fans (and Aaron Rodgers) should be happy with this first-round haul, and the franchise has two second-round picks as well. 29. Kansas City Chiefs (via MIA/SF) Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson The loss in free agency of cornerback Charvarius Ward shouldn't go unnoticed. He had developed into a really solid player. The Kansas City defense improved as the 2021 season went along, but it has to get deeper in the secondary. Booth is a smooth 6-foot corner with good ball skills who played both outside and in the slot in college. 30. Kansas City Chiefs George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue No wide receiver? Let me explain. First, the Chiefs also have two second- and two third-round picks. They could take one (or two) wide receivers with those selections. This is a deep class, and they could find better value there. And second, defensive end is a need as well. If Karlaftis is on the board, he'd be an ideal end next to Chris Jones, who does his best work from the interior. Karlaftis didn't always get home to quarterbacks last season (only 4.5 sacks), but he created pressures in their face.
Projected trade: Jets move up for ... a center? How about a third first-round selection from the Jets? In this scenario, with a glaring hole at center and the top guy still on the board, they deal No. 35 and a Day 3 pick to get back into Round 1. And crucially, they keep their pick at No. 38, which allows them to get more help. The Bengals would move down just four spots and pick up an extra fourth-rounder. They signed center Ted Karras in free agency among other moves to upgrade their O-line, so their need isn't as big. 31. New York Jets (via mock trade with CIN) Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa Could Linderbaum be the Jets' new Nick Mangold? They took Mangold at pick No. 29 in 2006 and have been trying to fill that void at center since he left the team after the 2016 season. Some NFL teams are putt off by Linderbaum's short arms, but just watch the tape. He has the physical traits to be an All-Pro and is exceptional as both a run and pass blocker. He's exactly what the Jets need, and this is tremendous value. 32. Detroit Lions (via LAR) Lewis Cine, S, Georgia The more I talk to people in the league, the more I think the Lions will stand pat on a quarterback with their three picks in the top 34. Jared Goff can be the starter in 2022, and if he struggles, chances are Detroit will be right back in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick, which it can use on a signal-caller. Cine is the fifth Georgia defender in the top 32 picks here (with more to come). He's a good cover safety who is rising after he ran a 4.37 40 at the combine. ROUND 2 33. Jacksonville Jaguars Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M Green is my top-ranked guard, and a I could see a team falling in love with him in the 20s. He might not be on the board here. Green played everything except center for the Aggies, but he should stick at guard in the NFL. The Jaguars, who have spent a lot of money in free agency -- including on guard Brandon Scherff -- should try to trade this pick and add extra assets. Taking Green helps them immediately, though. 34. Detroit Lions David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan Ojabo is my top-ranked outside linebacker, even after he tore his Achilles last month and could miss most of the season. If the Lions are thinking long-term, they could get a steal with a high-ceiling edge rusher. 35. Cincinnati Bengals (via mock trade with NYJ) Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida Cornerback is the position the Bengals should target if they keep the No. 31 pick, and they should be thrilled with Elam here. He locked down receivers for the Gators and then ran a 4.39 40 at the combine. He could be a Day 1 starter for Cincinnati. 36. New York Giants Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor This makes five safeties off the board in the top 36 picks. Pitre was stellar against the run last season; he had 20 run stops, according to ESPN Stats & Info, which were the most by any FBS defensive back. He impressed teams at the Senior Bowl. The Giants could target a wide receiver here, depending on how the board falls. The 6-foot-3 George Pickens (Georgia) could make sense. 37. Houston Texans Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State Brisker is a physical defensive back with versatility. He played down in the box at times for the Nittany Lions, blowing up running lanes. The Texans let Justin Reid leave in free agency, and they have multiple holes in the secondary. 38. New York Jets (via CAR) Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State Day 2 is when teams should take running backs, and the Jets would be getting the clear top back in this class. Hall can do it all, from forcing missed tackles to catching passes. If the Jets are serious about helping Zach Wilson, they should take Hall. This scenario gives them Hall, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Drake London and Tyler Linderbaum with their first four picks, which would have them well on the way to an "A" grade.
Thibs+London feel a little boom or bust. Linderbaum & Hall would be great adds. If we did land Linderbaum & cut McGovern where does that $9mil get allocated? Do we sit on it? Do we go after a vet like Mathieu?
Not a bad haul, but it'll obviously end up being far different in real life since Mel is never right.
we really need a DT and most mocks are sleeping on that. however replace hall with travis jones at 38 and i'd be happy. not a fan od london at 10 though. I'd rather have williams or olave there if WR is the pick
I'd prefer Williams over London, but I'd be okay with this draft given all the other players taken. But as several have already said: Kiper is almost never right.
We owe our current center 10 Mill after the draft. I've said this for months " the Jets aren't paying 10 mill for a J.A.G. center. IMO, one of two scenarios....1) The Jets will either draft a center to compete with Feeney (who played fairly well) and cut McGoven or 2) Probably the best option, have him restructure his contract. Fortner or Jurgens are possible targets to compete with Feeney if McGovern won't restructure.
Agree 100%, I'm targeting a DT at the top of Rd 2 with one of our picks. Not a London fan, Olave isn't getting the props he deserves, he's been OSU's best WR the last 3 years. Wilson has the higher ceiling, but Olave passes the NFL eye test.
Olave to me on film reminds me of a better faster amon-ra st brown and I loved st brown and wanted us to draft him badly and felt he was a steal. Lions drafted him in the 4th and he was a legit starter as a rookie
After reading Mel’s predictions, I feel more confident than ever we’re going CB and LB with our 1st 2 picks.
