I am not saying he can't pick it up, but to execute it right away is another story. I look at Allen's collegiate career, and I have to wonder what sort of plays can I run to get him in rhythm? To get the offense in rhythm. Easy plays. He makes all of the easy throws hard and all of the hard throws easy. He is so widely inconsistent in every facet. Call it "Bread and Butter plays". What plays do you feel Allen would be able to execute off the bat in an NFL offense?
What are you watching? Wyoming didn't have a lot of "easy" plays. Pretty much all the scouts, even the ones that are not high on Allen, agree on that.
Thats because Allen doesn't go through progressions fast enough, at times he could've checked down to grab more yards, take what the defense gave him. His decision making at times was spotty. If we wanted a QB that can hand the ball off, run it himself, play action, RPOs, bootleg and rollouts, why did we trade up? I right now have a hard time deciding between Mayfield and Allen. I really think I would prefer Allen as his skill-sets are amazing but need work. I really want someone to convince me, Allen could be good. I REALLY DO. I think in time he can run those offenses, but again his ability go to through progressions is slow. Bootleg, 1 - look at X, 2 go to the FB. More than likely what I've seen from Allen is he won't check it down and he will scramble and try to make something out of nothing. Can lead to interceptions, stalled drives. You have to take what the defense gives you, in this years tape, just never got that idea from Allen.
and I am not trying to be a pain in the ass, I just negatives like this. I see things like this each and every game with him. If we draft him, I hope we mold him into something special. I'd prefer his skill-set over Mayfields any day of the week. I really want Rosen on the Jets more than anything.
This is why context and truth matters. He did what you see in the gif A TON the year before, often times with great success. Note the year before he was MUCH better statically. That's why many of the box score scouts on this site like to throw out hollow words like he "regressed". The truth of the matter is he got much better this past year with his decision making. There was A LOT less of the throwing across his body with defenders draped all over him hero ball crap. He accepted when the defense won a snap, threw the ball away more or tucked the ball away and ran. His stats suffered a bit as a result. To say you saw that every game is simply NOT TRUE. The guy only threw 6 INTs.
Splitting hairs, no? To fix something, by definition you first need to learn it. The question is: How easy is this to "learn"? From my perspective this ability is akin to shooting clay pigeons, trap or skeet. Some people can pick up a shotgun and can start knocking pigeons out of the sky at a very high success rate - they seem to instinctively know how to calculate the speed and trajectory of the bird, and the pellets coming out of the gun to make them intersect. Others seem to be unable to do this mental calculation, and if they ever get to hit one they need to shoot at a lot of targets to be able to construct this "equation" in their mind and muscle memory. I see this equation allowing the prediction of where two traveling objects meet as very similar to throwing a football to a receiver, but there are some differences. One is that the pellets from a shot gun travel at a constant predictable rate; the clay pigeon's speed is also relatively constant, but can be affected by wind and trajectory. Whereas the football speed will vary much more, even when thrown by the same person: the QB doesn't always throw with the same force and must learn how to adjust this force within their mental "equation", adding another level of complexity to the equation. I do think that improving this ability is possible, but depending on how refined it is to begin with, it will take some longer than others to do this. In Allen's case, since he's always relied on throwing hard, this might take some time., and that's my concern. And of course we can't know how long until he gets to the pros and is able to practice against the level of competition he'll be facing. This issue is much bigger than basic "accuracy" and footwork problems, and whichever team he winds up on is going to have to allow for this time.
First off let me say that he does NOT lack anticipation; it's just not a strength. It's understandable because he can complete the same pass that a guy of lesser arm strength can holding on to the ball a bit longer simply because he can make up the time. Each time he moves up in competition (from high school to JuCo to the FBS to the pros) he has to adjust to speed, the windows get smaller and thus need to throw with more anticipation. There's no real drill for that, you just need reps, go through trial and error and hopefully learn from your mistakes. The guys that do get better; the guys that don't become Geno. He is not the first strong arm QB to come into the league having to get better at the anticipating his throws and he won't be the last.
They restricted his game, it was evident in the Hawaii game. Maybe they lost some reliable receivers IDK. He was on my radar last year, but I didn't see much improvement from last year which was why I jumped off the bandwagon. I know the receivers didn't get much separation, but they were sure handed receivers per the drop rate. I was hoping to see more consistency in the short to intermediate game, all while keeping that play-making ability. He was somewhat held back tho. He doesn't have to throw an interception to display bad decision making. The GIF I posted above, that's HIS style of play, and usually its not a great decision when he does that. Perhaps he can be coached out of that, but when he starts running around like that, its not always good. Maybe the first year was a flash in a pan, IDK. He does have elite arm talent tho, best I've seen since Stafford.
I never said that he lacks anticipation, just that it doesn't appear to be very refined. He's been running the Wyoming offense for two years, and I guess I would've thought he would show a more refined ability in this area. Even yesterday with perfect conditions and no defenders he still had some problems. Again, I'm sure he can learn, I'm just not sure how long that will take, and the Jets fans are not going to be real tolerant of a long learning curve.
From the games that I watched, I've seen much more positive plays than bad. Btw, every QB is going to have one or two bad throws a game. What I like from Allen's tape is that he throws crisp, well-timed, NFL passes all over the field. I see throws that can actually translate to the NFL, and I see a lot of them in each of his games. His tape isn't just a montage of screen passes.
Of course most of the plays Allen makes are "positive", but how many plays does it take to lose a football game? Allen makes too many of those, and he will likely make even more of them when he faces professionals. And that's not because he sucks, but because that's what EVERY college player runs into. Flacco completed 63% of his passes in college, but when he turned pro his % dropped, as is does for every college QB. And yet Allen supporters insist his completion % and accuracy will improve. This isn't very likely, and if it doesn't he could well turn into a bust. That isn't a good bet for a franchise that's been starved for a FQB for decades. That said, I fully expect Macc to take him if he's there at #3, and am praying that the Browns, Giants, or someone they trade the #2 pick to, take Allen and save Macc from himself.
Quick scores are the one thing a defense has to be careful about surrendering. What took 30 seconds for your opponent to put up 7, might take your team a half a quarter or more to make up for. So one thing I'll say about Allen, without getting into a debate whether the Jets should draft him or not, he is going to command immediate respect for that arm of his. Defenses lining up against him will have to make sure deep threat receivers are covered (maybe double covered) with help over the top by safeties. That means defenses will have to give up something, usually short and intermediate routes. Whether Allen is able to take advantage of this in the pros is another story.
The huge problem with this is that Allen doesn’t *actually* have a good deep ball. We always associate strong arms with the ability to throw deep, but a lot of big armed guys (especially Allen) don’t have the anticipation and timing to make these 40+ yard throws. He couldn’t even complete his “show off” shots at the end of his pro day. Rosen’s deep ball is way better because he actually has a feel for it instead of just chucking it. Allen is pretty good at firing sideline throws in the 20-30 yard range but his deeper game is severely lacking.
Not saying you're wrong about Allen, you could be right. I haven't seen enough of him to judge his deep balls. Nevertheless, the threat of the big arm is there regardless, and sometimes that's enough. Of course, he'll have to prove it eventually, and if he can't make the deep connection often enough, teams will probably relax their deep coverage. However, when a guy can throw a ball 70 yards, getting all the exposure he did, whether or not it's caught, it's still a threat.
Today’s to do list: Rewatch Carson Wentz college games and look for factors that differentiate him an Allen. The fewer the better.
The bold is true of 2016 Josh Allen but NOT 2017. This is why the few of us who are NOT anti-Allen say he showed great improvement and development from 2016 to 2017 despite what the stats might suggest. If he played as reckless in 2017 as he did in 2016, his stats would have probably been better but the team would have probably lost more games.
2 off the top of the head are Wentz was more accurate and given a lot more responsibility at the LOS.
That’s unfortunately very hard to see in these cut ups because they start right before the snap. I wish we got more access to whiteboard sessions with the draft QBs so we can see how they think and how much responsibility they had. Actually gonna miss Gruden’s camp. Of course it stops the year we’re certain to draft a guy.
I remember watching a couple of Wentz's games and coming away impressed with all he was doing and allowed to do at the LOS. Their coach also kind of co-signed this by comparing the difference between the 2 is similar to Manning and Favre, where Wentz is the former and Allen the latter. Based on interviews, Allen seems to be no slouch in the football IQ knowledge.
