Jets trading for Haason Reddick

I was hoping the double team point were true, but it is in fact not. Reddick faced near identical % of double teams as Huff last year. Take a look at this: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...-blocking-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams

Double team %: Reddick 16%, Huff 15%. So, yes a little more in Philly, but the difference is minor. The good news is that both of them win pass rushing snaps at elite mark: 22%. Here is what's interesting: Clowney last year faced double team 25% of the time, and won 25% of reps. No wonder Jets went after him first. He is also the oldest, 1.5 years older than Reddick. So I could see why JD may not have wanted to give him a two year deal. Though his two year deal costs 20 mil, while Reddick's 1 year is 15, so it could have been worth to get Clowney anyway even on a two year deal. Perhaps the concern is that around 31-32 is the time where production tapers off for these Edge rushers and Clowney is already there. Reddick has about two seasons before he is that age.

Now, winning pass rushing rep is not enough. To make an impact you need to get to the QB, and either sack, hit, or hurry him. This is where Huff, in spite of very similar double team rate, vastly outperformed Reddick. Huff generated 67 pressures on 334 pass rushing attempts, for 20.1 rate. Reddick generated 68 on 587 snaps for 11.6 pressure rate. That is a vast difference, considering nearly identical % of double teams. Now, would the rate for Reddick increase if he has less playing time? Possibly. But I am looking at the games where he had fewest snaps, and I don't see much difference. Let's consider the ones with fewer than 40 snaps, where he had more rest.
Minny: 39 snaps, 30 pass rush, 1 pressure.
TB: 21 snaps, 20 pass rush, 2 pressures.
LA: 38 snaps, 32 pass rush, 5 pressures.
Mia: 37 snaps, 27 pass rush, 2 pressures
NYG: 26 snaps, 15 pass rush, 0 pressures.

That's 8% pressure rate with games less than 40 snaps. We can add SF game where he had 42 snaps and 26 pass rush snaps, and 4 pressures. That raises it to 9.3. But still below his average. If anything evidence suggests that the more he plays the better his pressure rate is. At the very least, there is no basis to expect his numbers to improve by playing less.

Overall, I think it is clear Huff was a better pass rusher than Reddick last year and given where they are in their careers I don't expect this to change this year. This is not to say Reddick is not good: he clearly is. But I just don't want people to underestimate what we had last year in Huff as some sort of byproduct of Q. Huff faced near the same double teams rate as Reddick and did a lot better overall. And when Reddick played less his pressure numbers didn't improve, but actually decreased. Huffs also didn't get worse as he played more. This explains why Roseman pulled the trigger on this trade. He upgraded his pass rush with a younger player and got extra 3d (or 2nd) round pick in the process. For us this was a necessary move too after fucking up Huff situation and failing to find a good pass rusher in free agency in spite of trying pretty hard.

 

Spot on!

Again, this team continues to value defense over offense in a league driven by offense. Honestly I wouldn't be shocked - outraged yes, but shocked no - if they took a defensive player with their first pick again this year. It's like they think, "If only we had an impregnable defense we wouldn't have to worry about who plays QB for us", and so they continue to chase after the mythical "impregnable defense", while not really trying to find and develop a FQB and great offense. SMH.

And to think, Werblin named this team the Jets to signify a fast, high flying team. They ought to be renamed the Tanks.

 

let’s see one guy has been a 1st round pick and top pass rusher for 10 years. The other a part time player and former UDFA.

Who do you think got more attention from the opposing offensive line?

But yeah let’s hang our hats on “pressure rate”

 

Did you even read my post? The whole point was answering your question. Then you are responding to it asking the question just answered! They got about the same "attention" - see the double team rate. There is no need to guess.

 

From a player perspective I absolutely LOVE Reddick! Dude is a player. NO ONE is questioning this guy's ability, production or motor. From a defensive perspective this allows the Jets to continue their modus operandi of being able to swap d-linemen, in game, at a rate that keeps everyone pretty fresh. However, I'm not sure it was necessary. Don't get me wrong, I hated to lose Huff and we'll never know what went on behind the scenes. Did he not want to stay? Hard to say. However, having pondered that...did the team "really" need to bring in a guy like Reddick. It's about managed resources and focus.

This team has hovered around or above the top 10 in defense for some time now. Conversely, they have hovered in the 30's on offense for the same period. Nothing that all of us do not know already. Which makes me wonder why Reddick we even on their radar. If this position was determined to be a need then they should have done everything they could to keep Huff. Seeing as they did not do that, every single scout, coach and personnel person should be focused on offense, offense, offense. They've signed some pieces that, injury history not withstanding, SHOULD help the team immensely. IMHO, they are not done. The entire group of aforementioned folks should be spending every waking moment turning over every stone to find o-linemen and WR's. Especially with their known injury history. Depth should be their focus, not edge rusher. That should be way way way down the list. Then again, what do I know.

 

Look, this was a necessary trade. It was necessitated by fucking up Huff situation badly and then having another team scoop in last minute to get Shaq Barrett who had a very good season last year and ditto for Clowney. The question is: did we need one in addition to McD, JJ, JFM, and Clemons? Do you remember last year when Huff was playing little early. There was no pass rush. Only after they integrated Huff, defense finally started putting pressure on a QB. Now without Huff it's back to where it was at the start of last year, which was not very good. And this year hopefully we will play with more leads and could need this more. Also, imagine JJ or someone else gets hurt? We were lucky not to have any injuries last year on the DL.

Some will say McD will just replace Huff. But to me this is far from given. McD didn't play much last year, was overdrafted at his spot, and will be 25 in two months. It's unrealistic to expect him to take a giant leap this year to the point he is one of the best pass rushers in the game, like the one we lost. If it happens, great, but a long shot hope cannot be the strategy. JFM can play inside more and Clemons frankly should not be playing. So the answer is yes, we needed someone else good.

There is no good pass rusher left on the market. A few players were linked to us. Calais Campbell even though had a decent season is not a pass rusher but more interior guy and is 38, and Yannick I just don't think is good. There are slim pickings. This trade brings us double digit sack Edge we needed and haven't had in 10 years Huff just did it last year. The price is steep. This is a 3d round pick for a one year rental. Hopefully it will not become a second, but it might. But the guy is a good player. Still Pro Bowl quality. So, I think it was a solid trade for us.

 

LOVING the Dodge Ball reference!

Bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it works out for them!

 

Double team rate percentage is something for my ex wife. It doesn’t tell us too much about how much attention opposing offenses are giving a player

 

LOL - good one about the ex wife. Can't comment on that, but what better indication of attention than sending an extra guy out of only 11 on the field to block you? Don't brush it aside. Look at the facts and then arrive where they take you rather than assuming something and trying to selectively find only the pieces that fit that narrative.

 

Thanks for your work on the stats, Holmes. Respect.

 

there are several ways not captured by that imperfect statistic.

The offense can run plays away from a defender, or right at him if he’s good at chasing.

they can max protect with a an extra person in the backfield, I could go on

 

you’re not accounting for the fact that the jets secondary was way better than eagles last year … the longer the secondary holds up, the longer pass rushers have to get home

 

Basically another year of Huff, at slightly less than it would take to keep Huff another year

but a 3rd round pick is nothing to sneeze at for sure

 

yes and from a strategic point of view, those high picks are on premium positions that are worth it…the RB the only one you can say isn’t a premium position in today’s NFL, but firstly, that was a second rounder not a first, and secondly, hard to argue that Breece hasn’t been our best offensive weapon…so to me, Breece was totally worthy of a 2nd.

The issue with JD thus far, to me, isn’t that he doesn’t know how to strategically build a team. I think these pick distributions show that he does know which positions are premium…unlike both Idzik and Mac before him who left our roster a total fucking mess.

The issue has more been with the individual player assessments…of the 3 WR, only GW has proven worthy, both of the 2nd rounders have not lived up to their potential…Mims I think is already out of the league, and Moore hasn’t done much with either us or Cleveland.

The OL…well AVT has been very good…Becton has had injury issues derail a promising rookie season, and so it’s hit and miss.

And of course the QB was a disaster.

So to me, the issues aren’t the strategic use of the picks, the issues are the tactical failures of evaluating the individual players to deliver on the strategy.

 

Can you elaborate on that a bit? Normally on passing plays a QB takes a snap and drop back or shot gun. At that time a rusher is trying to win PR rep and get to the QB. So, max protect, etc is covered in a double team. You mean a QB can leave the pocket and run from a defender as a designed play. I guess, but I suspect it is pretty rare. And if a QB is pressured to run, this counts as a pressure. So, not the whole story I agree, but these stats are covering a lot of ground.

"Our pass rush win rate metric tells us how often a pass-rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds." On that that one Reddick and Huff and basically neck and neck. But maybe you are right it helps explain to some degree why Reddick's conversion of these wins is a lot lower than Huff's. Still though, the difference is so big, there has to be more there. Probably the truth is that Huff is still better at generating pressures as a pass rusher but not by as much. Given where they are in their careers though I would expect that gap to widen every year.

 

Thanks! I did see your earlier posts, and I agree that the move was a productivity recoup rather than a position for position. I have heard Reddick's name for years, but never realized that he was a LB. I've thought that he was an Edge all along, so it will be interesting to see how Ulbrich uses him. I feel confident that he will come up with some creative ways to do so. Now, if we could just get the same creativity out of Hackett, we might have something, but I'll believe that will happen when I see it happen.

 

I love Huff as much as the next guy and I think it's a shame we lost him for just money, but his pressure % should in theory come down as he plays more. Reddick played 2.3x more on early downs vs Huff. Let's see if Huff is as successful when he's playing more.

If you strictly look it as if Huff was traded for Reddick and a pick, then yeah it's never going to look good. But that's not really what happened. You have to separate the two. Trading for Reddick with a pick in 2026 is good. I'm just not sure how else it could be viewed. Losing Huff for nothing was bad. They don't have to be compared to one another.