Jets Playoff Chances

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by TurkJetFan, Nov 23, 2011.

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Do the Jets Make the Playoffs?

  1. Yes

    199 vote(s)
    48.1%
  2. No

    215 vote(s)
    51.9%
  1. KWJetsFan

    KWJetsFan Well-Known Member

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    The Jets controlled their playoff fate the past two weeks, but only bothered to show up and take a large dump on the field.

    Miami is a division rival that always plays the Jets tough and would like nothing better than to send the Jets packing. Despite their record, right now, Miami is also playing some good ball. If Miami got up say 10-0 or so, I have ZERO faith the Jets offense could get them back in the game.

    I think the other games become moot as the Jets lose their third in a row and put the exclamation point on a season of mediocrity.
     
  2. Biggs

    Biggs Well-Known Member

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    The Jets seem to play much better when they don't actually have the pressure of controlling their own destiny. I think the chances of a back in are better than 50/50. The Jets tend to shit the bed when they control their own destiny.
     
  3. sozopol

    sozopol Well-Known Member

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    I agree, I think there's a good chance they back in.

    If the offense keeps playing the way they have been I'm not sure I can take it. I can't watch that crap any more.
     
  4. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    No way. With all the things that have to happen? Under 10%.
     
  5. Biggs

    Biggs Well-Known Member

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    This is the NFL. At least one team should be rewarded for sucking and I'm not ashamed to believe we deserve to be that team.
     
  6. sozopol

    sozopol Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm I have to revise my prediction and say I give it about a 20% chance. Even though I think each independent outcome has a good chance of happening in the Jets favor. Here's why:

    75% chance of Balt defeating Cincy
    50% chance of Houston beating Tenn.
    75% chance of either SD beating Oakland or KC beating Denver
    75% chance of Jets beating Miami

    So, 3/4 times 1/2 times 3/4 times 3/4 equals about 21/100 or 21%.

    Pretty discouraging.

    if you bump up the probabilities to 80%, 60%, 80%, 80% you still get only a 30% chance of it all happening like that.
     
  7. #28Martin

    #28Martin Well-Known Member

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    It's not 10%. Not saying it will happen but Houston, Baltimore, SD and the Jets are all better then the teams they are playing this weekend. The Titans aren't that good, Houston at home can easily beat them.
     
  8. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    You give the Jets a 75% chance of beating Miami?
     
  9. DisgruntledLionFan

    DisgruntledLionFan Active Member

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    It's 13%.

    I posted it earlier in the thread or in another thread.
     
    #349 DisgruntledLionFan, Dec 27, 2011
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2011
  10. Endlessly Counting

    Endlessly Counting Well-Known Member

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    If Houston is locked in, then that is not good. Developing chemistry is not enough motivation IMHO
     
  11. #28Martin

    #28Martin Well-Known Member

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    Put in the equation that they've lost the last two weeks in embarrassing fashion, one to the Colts and are gonna have 11 days off before they play this Sunday and I could see them easily beating a very medicore Tennessee team, who they blew out earlier in the week, this weekend. Teams don't like going into the playoffs on a 3 game losing streak.
     
  12. #28Martin

    #28Martin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah cause percentage wise it's alot of games but truthfully, I don't think it's so unreasonable.... Plus, like many have correctly stated, who the heck knows if the Jets even win.
     
  13. Endlessly Counting

    Endlessly Counting Well-Known Member

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    Jets can come back from 10pts down

    They've done it several times this year

    They had ball on 50 w/5 minutes to go vs Giants down 6, after being down 13. Better play calling might've resulted in a TD, maybe even a victory there.

    They were down 28 vs Eagles in the bat of an eye. That's too much for anyone to overcome.
     
  14. DisgruntledLionFan

    DisgruntledLionFan Active Member

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    I'd guess the probability of Indy beating Houston or KC beating GB was roughly around 13%, if not lower.

    Means nothing, really.
     
  15. sozopol

    sozopol Well-Known Member

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    what is this based on? do you have link? just curious
     
  16. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    Talk to there coach then, he's the one who said they are playing there starters the whole game and are trying to win.
     
  17. colleen74

    colleen74 Member

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  18. DisgruntledLionFan

    DisgruntledLionFan Active Member

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    Can't find that exact site, but here's one based on efficiency ratings of each team:

    http://files.nfl-forecast.com/

    The number will be different depending on how each site calculates it, but the number isn't going to be very high. I'd guess less than 15% across the board considering the combination of things that need to happen.

    Like I said, it really means nothing.
     
  19. Endlessly Counting

    Endlessly Counting Well-Known Member

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    Except they are pretty good at last game "win and ins"

    Win and in: 1981, 1985, 1991, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2009

    lose but back ins: 1986, 2004*
    * 2004, OT vs. Rams, then found out they were in during OT and "played not to win the game".

    win but in before last game played: 1968, 1969, 1998, 2010

    lose but in before last game played: 1982

    win but out before last game played 1967*
    Oilers beat Dolphs on Sat nite. Jets beat Chargers the next day

    lose and out: 1993, 1997, 2008

    Also Jets need to win, so it wouldn't be a back-in

    BTW, this is the first time in their history that I can recall that they could win and still be eliminated on the last day
     
  20. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    2002 comes to mind.
     

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