in response to comments about his offense Running the football is super, duper smart. I don't want to get too math nerdy, but since scoring (and acquiring first downs) is the consequence of one play after another the relevant statistic has to consider the standard deviation of returns, and not simply arithmetic average. This is where running excels, e.g., Scenario one: throw 40 yard completion, follows by 3 incompletions. 40 yards with 4 plays. 10 yds/play but high standard deciation scenario two: run for 3.34 yards every down with absolutely no variation. average is only 3.34 yards/play (little more than 1/3 of the above) but this is guaranteed to march down the field and score every time now obviously that's concocted just to prove a point: sexy doesn't necessarily mean smart. Then fold in where we play (not the most conducive to passing), and fold in the rarity of the Mahomes and Rodgers of the world to implement the fun-to-watch, but normally-not-so-smart air assaults... running is boring but smart
Nothing was revised. Ryan developed quite a bit in first 3 years under previous HC/OC: from the rookie and then 76 ranked QB to 90+ ranked and earning a big contract. Gase had him in his 5th year. Also, he missed a lot of time due to injury. Smith helped him take next steps, I acknowledge that, and he deserves credit, but he also did make good progress under the coaches before Gase. Also Mariota was a pretty good prospect before as well. Again, Arthur did a good job in 2 years as OC, but it pails in comparison to what Daboll did with Allen and Buffalo offense for instance or Saleh with 49ers defense.
Are you getting these conclusions from a study? Because the studies I've seen show that in the majority of situations passing is superior to running.
I can appreciate this kind of analysis but it’s also why I go a little crazy when I see so many definitive‘s being drawn from analytics. In theory this all sounds great but that completely takes away the human element of the game. If you run every play, a defense is going to adjust. I know that you were not actually suggesting a team run at literally every play but any good team will identify the game plan and adjust accordingly. If it was that easy, it would be done all the time.
I know that you use your brain and that you want us to get the best guy. I haven't seen/read all the things that you said that you have about Saleh. If I had, perhaps I would think/feel the same way. There are things about Smith that we don't know. We just have to hope that JD knows all those pertinent details and important facts. As to your question regarding why not Smith being hired as HC, he hadn't been a coordinator before. How many HCs have been promoted directly from Quality Control Coach or TE Coach or OL Coach directly to HC? Not many, and the owners of the Titans or their GMs are undoubtedly the more conservative types, and not the sharpest pencils in the box because they're now on their 4th HC in 10 years. I wouldn't expect them to do something progressive like promote a position group coach directly to HC. They'd think that that guy needed to be a coordinator first for at least several years. Even though in general, I'm a pretty progressive person, I'm not that progressive, either. I think it's nuts to rush moving a guy to HC from a position coach. I think Joe Brady's getting HC interviews this year is insane. It smacks of panic and desperation. I don't care how smart he is. He doesn't have enough coaching experience and he doesn't have enough experience as an OC. Granted he didn't have McCaffery, but he only had him for 3 games I think, and his offense didn't do nearly as well the 2nd half of the season as they did the first half. That could have been a result of other injuries or Covid or a tougher schedule, but still, I think he is too young and inexperienced. Can you provide some links on Saleh where he is talking about his philosophy and that show how knowledgeable he is in all three phases of the game? Since he could wind up being our next HC, I'd like to learn more about him. If he is the hire, I will certainly hope that you are right and root for him. I certainly like him more than the other DC candidates. I wouldn't think of hiring Eberfluss or Staley, and the only reason I would Lewis is that he was a somewhat successful HC who has already taken teams to the playoffs.
I'm curious if they'll set up a second interview with anyone else or try to pounce on one of these two.
Just got a funny thought....imagine if OC's got copyright protection for unique plays they design for their offense, and other teams weren't allowed to copy/steal them for 7 years!
This is a hypothetical that never happens in real life. You gave the passes gigantic variance, a 40 yard completion with nothing after, and the runs 0 variance. Neither is realistic. QB's complete about 63% of passes so the 40, 0, 0, 0 is unlikely as is the 3.34, 3.34, 3.34, 3.34 hypothetical. Passing has actually proven to be more efficient most of the time: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/finding-optimal-passrun-ratio#:~:text=Although passing is more efficient,would be most convenient here.
I have been reading everything I can find from many of the experts on what makes a good head coach. The point that keeps coming up in todays NFL approach is that all being equal you want the guy at the helm to be more offensive minded and in charge of of the offensive structure, calling the shots with his QB. Continuity between the QB and the OC/HC is huge, and if most of that is provided at the HC level, like Reid, Payton, Leflour, etc, is more likely to stabilize the QB position and even the OC position for a long time. If you are defensive minded, and delegate that piece to the OC, you have to be prepared to loose your OC if he is good and effectiver after a couple of years. thus impacting your QB. Wonder if that is the concern about Sale versus say, Smith, Daboll for instance.
Lol. Of course the Philadelphia brass would NOT interrupt their snowbird vacation in Florida to interview a guy and show him around the building.
They are going to introduce him to his new coaching staff in Florida. Wentz is going to be in on the interview as well.
Yes I’m joking, It’s why Pederson had enough, because they were always meddling in his decision as HC.
I was about 90/10% on it being sarcasm and pretty dumb of me not to pick up on it, lol. Been a long week man.
I honestly believe they want a HC who is going to commit to Wentz at all cost because of all the money he is getting no questions asked. Hope your weekend gives you a little reprieve from the long week. Sometimes it’s good to just vegg!!!
Thanks dog. Appreciate it. A full weekend of football definitely helps. I think you're probably right. And I hardly feel bad for these teams or players that sign these massive contracts that allows neither side an out. But it might be something the NFL should look at. It'd be a nightmare for the NFLPA to justify to the other positions but perhaps a QB cap or maybe something similar to what the NBA had in the one time amnesty rule where they could cut a player without cap repercussions? Allow the player to still collect their money but give teams maybe one a decade?
