The Jets didn't need the first down though; even after they gave the Raiders the ball back, they still had a 90+% win probability. The Raiders had 30-40 seconds, the ball inside their own territory, no timeouts, and needed a touchdown to win. All the Jets needed to do was not do anything really dumb, and fortunately for us Jets fans, Williams did something really dumb.
^ This. An incomplete pass is a free time out for Vegas. Punt the ball (with your drafted punter - they did) and from there keep everything & everyone in front of you (Gregg didn't - game). .
Really good theory here. Early in Williams's career, he played a standard Hail Mary defense, but then he changed it up in 2010, right after the miracle Hail Mary in Jacksonville where the Texans corner batted the ball into the Jaguars receiver's hands. So ironically, Jacksonville's 2010 miracle may end up costing them Trevor Lawrence 10 years later.
And you think there's no problem when the head coach neither knows nor cares what play is called for half the game?
I too browse reddit. Or are you the same guy?? Anyway, I'm not made at Williams. I am concerned we've released/fired players and coaches but Gase is still here and seems to be the one pulling the strings
truthfully, if he is fired (which he certainly should be), I'm not sure there will be a rest of his career. Who would hire him in any capacity at the NFL level? HC? No. OC? Why. QB Coach? LOL
Darnold probably woulda fumbled, threw an interception or a boneheaded incompletion. His track record speaks for itself. Running the ball was the right call, not only for time management purposes but also because the Jets had run for 200+ yards that day
If they had made the 1st down running, then I agree, it would've been the right call. But they didn't, therefore it was the wrong call. "Predictions" that Darnold would've fumbled or thrown an interception or an incomplete are just that predictions, based on past occurrances, but nonetheless, not fact. Given that the "experts" all would've called for three straight runs, was obviously not lost on the defense who were geared towards stopping the run at all costs. In those circumstances, a pass would've been the better call. In any case those were three of the most "vanilla", predictable run plays I can recall seeing. It was like, "See? We're running the ball, so no need to worry about a pass". Where Williams has been eviscerated for taking a wild gamble, nothing has been said about Gase's feeble, and predictable play calling at the end that also cost them the game.
Again. Under no circumstances do you drop back and let your QB who has 2:1 turnovers to touchdowns on the year and the same amount of turnovers in the game as touchdowns, throw the ball there. He's not an accurate quarterback like Cousins who gunslings his way into interceptions. He's a thrower with bad accuracy, and completes under 60% of his throws on the season. Coaches with much better quarterbacks run the ball three times in that situation. The only teams that let their guy throw the ball are KC and Seattle. Maybe Houston and one or two others but I've seen KC and Seattle do it this year which is why I'm referencing them. Run, run, run, punt and play prevent defense. If you want to blame anything on Gase it's for not taking a timeout there before the TD. Every good coach in the league takes a timeout right there even if it's not to overrule the coordinator and it's just to talk it over once more. He also just watched Algholor burn them on a play that would've scored with a good throw.
You're pushing the "common wisdom" theory, and it makes sense...that's why it's common wisdom. But the fact remains they didn't make a first down when they needed to. His TD to turnover ratio has nothing to do with this. If you want to calculate the odds of him turning it over, use his total passes attempted divided into his INTs and fumbles, which comes out to just under 5%. IOW, the odds of him creating a turnover there were less than 1 in 20. So even with Darnold, the odds were still good for throwing and completing a pass of less than 10 yards. Not to mention that with inexperienced RBs there was a fair chance of them fumbling, especially when the defense is focused on trying to strip the ball in that situation. Yes, failing to play prevent did actually cost them the game, but had they gotten the first down that would've never happened.
Okay. So do you want to calculate the percentage in which it's likely he throws an incomplete pass? 42%. Your fumble concerns for Adams/Johnson are just as irrelevant as my TD to INT point. Adams has fumbled once in 140 NFL carries. Johnson once in 90 NFL carries. Adams fumbled three times in 480 carries at Notre Dame. Ty Johnson did not fumble in his college career of 348 carries. The Raiders moved the ball all day, they just had two bad turnovers in the fourth quarter that stopped scoring drives. If we throw a pass and it's incomplete, add 43ish seconds on the clock and there's no doubt in my mind that the Raiders score anyways and everyone in the world (including you and this entire board) shreds Gase for throwing the ball. Most teams are content with not getting a first down there. While you try, you don't sacrifice 43 seconds to take a chance at stopping the clock. Where's @HomeoftheJets ? What's the win probability drop to with an incomplete pass?
42% chance he throws an incomplete pass. 95% chance the Jets win the game if they just run the ball 3 times. The game is about risk management. It was the right call to run the ball and frankly it was an easy one. Coaches face far more difficult decisions in a given game
I kinda of agree....but if Gase had thrown the ball (and missed, or worse, an INT) then THAT play would have been called the dumbest play ever and GASE woulda been sacked!
58% chance he throws a completion. The chances are he completes the pass. And that's not factoring in the additional advantage that the defense is geared towards stopping the run, and not the pass, making it easier to complete the pass.
if no one was open darnold could have just take a sack or tried to scramble for the first after a play action i hate when teams run three times in those scenarios. all the advantages in this league are with the offense. you have to try and get the first there. i get that darnolds decision making limits the play calling, but if you cant trust him in that spot, he shouldnt be playing who am i kidding though? im all aboard the tank train! everything happened exactly they way it needed to
The difference between 40 seconds and 1:28 is astronomical. 1:28 you can probably get away with 2-3 shots over the middle if you hurry. With 40 seconds you have one shot over the middle and that'll probably be the only other play you run other than the heave if it's far enough down the field. Maybe a couple 5 yard outs.
