I think the most appealing odds of the "longshots" (not the Pats, Gints, Colts, and other top teams) is the Vikings. As much as it pains me to say it. If they get their QB situation straightened out, I think they have every other piece in place (except maybe coaching). I also like the 25/1 odds on the Packers, but that maybe goes without saying for me. If I was forced to put money down on who would NOT win, I would take the Cowboys. Those odds seems much higher than they should be. To me.
As Dunlaing noted earlier, these odds are not about genuine "expert" opinions on the chance that a team will win, but rather to encourage betting patterns that will balance the books, and hence guarantee a profit for the casinos. Thus, if you are smarter than the popular views of the betting public, you can actually come up with a bet with a positive expected payoff. This is the reason that it is possible to make a living betting on horse racing (you only have to be smarter than the typical bettor by enough of a margin), but impossible to make a living betting on craps (you can't be smarter than the dice). The interesting thing about these odds is the vig that they imply (that is, the cut going to the casinos). If the odds actually were based on some expert's opinion on the probability of each team winning the Super Bowl (rather than popularity), so that a team with odds of 50:1 really was viewed as having about the half the probability of winning as a team with odds of 25:1, the given odds would imply an expected vig for the casinos of more than 27%, which is ridiculously high (in other words, to be fair, the payoffs should be considerably higher than the ones being offered). That makes it a lot harder to come up with that bet with a positive expected payoff that I mentioned above. As time goes by and more and more money comes in, the odds will resemble more ones implied by true probabilities (since they'll be based on actual betting patterns, rather than just guesses about those patterns), and the implied vig will go down. For that reason, you can probably do better if you wait a while before putting money down.
