Begging the casual fan to take the under, but it's a fair ranking. I figured Vegas would have us 6.5 or 7. Jets have one unit which you know will be good, and there are potential upgrades at OL, RB and QB. Can't go any lower than 6.5. Right now, this probably is a 7-win team. Has the ability to be better if things go well. I would be surprised if this defense weren't top 10. If the offense can manage the game, not turn the ball over, and put up enough points, the Jets could be a playoff team not unlike how the Bengals have been recently. I'd be more inclined to take the over than the under, but this team still has a lot of questions to be answered. I think there is talent in place to answer many of those questions, but it remains to be seen if it will actually happen. Vegas may think we're an 8-win team (not sure about that), but if you set the Jets O/U next season at 8, and you asked 100 NFL fans, 95 would take the under. If you asked 100 Jets fans, 60 would take the under. That would mean 9-7 to win the bet, and that's still risky.
i don't want a bad season, but my philosophy is if the Jets don't make the playoffs I hope they totally suck eggs. At least make a losing season worthwhile by having a high draft pick. I don't want the Jets to lose just because I want a high draft pick, But looking objectively at this team unless a lot of things come together well to very well they will be lucky to be a .500 team. Having a high draft pick is no promise of success, but remember that high draft pick in the first round means high picks in the other rounds which increases the odds of getting some good players. But again, I hope the Jets make the playoffs, I don't think they will but I hope they do. But if it becomes clear the teams not good early in the season the only thing left to root for his a high draft pick and hope for the future. That said, I'm the least optimistic about this years team as I've been in a very long time. not based on last year but looking at the roster.
In looking at the first 9 games of the schedule I'd be surprised if the Jets have a better record than 3-6, 2 and 6 being likely.
My biggest concerns, other than QB of course, is an Oline that will have 3/5 of them haven't played together, that's assuming that Vlad doesn't win a starting job. But even if Vlad does he's still had limited starting experience and an O-line is all about team work and functioning as a unit, it can take 1/3-1/2 a season for an o-line to start to jell, and that was before the new players agreement with it's limits on workouts and practice. Our safety situation is a huge questionmark as well, aside from a journeyman safety the other's have combined for something like 35 games played between them and around 40 tackles. The Young safeties are going to have to make a major step up this year or TE's and slot recievers are going to eat the defense alive. The young D-Line is really going to have to step up this year and shine if the team is even going to have a shot at .500. Right now, aside from the Corner's, their the bright spots on the team. But really, the young d-line has to step up, D. Davis is gonna have to shine in his sophmore season, and so are the Safeties. I do think we solidified our O-line in this draft, but it may take 1/2 a season to a full season for that young 3/5ths of the o-line to mature.
I respect your viewpoint and agree with your assessment of drafting higher, which equates to increasing the odds. I don't think however, that I want them to suck eggs if they don't make the playoffs. I'm hoping we cand find out this year that we have a very good nucleus to build from particularly in the OL and DL, CB and RB. They can be competitive and a solid base to build from. Maybe with some infusion at LB and safety/ WR we could be in the hunt By 2014. The big unknown for all of us is QB, and I think the desire to either make the playoff or fail is on the hope to daft a franchise QB. I think the odds of that are kind of high. Just like you I have my fears but I wish and pray either of the top 3 QBs prove me wrong.
You know what they say about opinions...everyone's got one! If it was all about opinions and polls we would never play the games! Its always better when you are the upsetter!
I see some people are saying that it would be better if we did bad so Rex could get fired. I couldn't disagree any more. I think Rex is a great coach. I think that he is the only coach for the Jets right now. I don't think that any other coach would be able to take the beating by the NY media like Rex. I believe that if we where to fire Rex, that alone would set this team back a few years.
The problem with this year is the first 9 games of the Jets schedule is very rough while the last 7 games could pad the teams win/loss stats as there are some very winnable games in the last 7. The NFL is probably the easiest league of all the sports teams, aside from maybe the NBA, to go from worst to first, especially if your fielding a young team in the "worst" year before moving to first. I can easily see the Jets moving from a worst to first scenario in the 2013/2014 seasons. 2013 figures to be an unsettled year at QB, never a good thing going in to the season, but should be more stable going in to 2014 either by having a QB step up in 2013 or drafting Bridgewater in the 2014 draft. 3/5ths of the O-Line won't have played together prior to this season and it takes time for O-lines to jell when you have that big of a turnover in starting personel. The secondary is made up almost entirely of new players or 2nd year players with limited on field experience once you get past Cromartie and Wilson, the CB staff does have several 2nd and 3rd year players on it but most of them are at best nicklebacks or special teams players. I expect some players to establish themselves in those units this year, but it's going to be a very rough year. You can finish with a high draft pick and still know by the end of the season who's a strength and who's a weakness. The problem with finishing the middle of the field in standings is that you start to think you are better than you really are. We'll have a very good picture of how good the team is after the first 9 games, the last 7 won't be as much of a gauge due to the easier schedule. If the Jets can go 4-5 or 5-4 in those first 9 they're a legit playoff team. If they go 2-7 or 3-6 they're not. In other words the last 7 games might make the team look better than it really is.
7 wins is a reasonable over/under. I think 6 is pretty much the floor without a really bad run of injuries. At least I hope it is the floor because sucking for a draft pick usually just leads to more sucking for a draft pick.
Guys!!! Vegas places lines not based on the strength of a team, but rather based on the perception of the strength. The idea is to get exactly 50/50 bet split on either side.
They get a cut of all sports betting whether you win or lose. Plus none of the casino games are in the customer's favor. The odds are always against you, and that still doesn't take away from the fact that they are wrong more often than right when doing spreads. Knicks were favored by 5 points on the road against a tough Indiana team the other night. Turns out Pacers won by 10+. Vegas odds are pretty much just reactions to prior games.
No one can set a spread that will be right all the time. If you track spreads and totals, it's amazing how close some of them are. The Knicks were not favored on the road or the rough. They were only favored at home. Indiana has been favored in the games at Indiana.
My friend looked up the spread right before game 3, on the road, so we could bet. The Knicks were favored by 5 points. It was obviously a reaction based simply on their game 2 blowout. Unless my buddy read it wrong or lied.. I won't discount that either. If he lied I'm getting my 10 bucks back!!!
Good to know we have an optimist in the bunch. :rofl: So they do worse than last year with a decimated banged up injured roster.. Okay then.
