Jets 2013 Cap Situation

greene is not getting to 1300 and 12. how can you not be surprised at all if he hit top 5 production? again, only 2 rbs hit both of those targets. greene is not getting close to 1300 unless he's getting 300+ carries. touchdowns are hard to predict, but for a guy who has 10 touchdowns in 3 years, 12 seems like a lofty goal.

if lynch got 8 mil doing 1200 and 12, why would greene get 2 more million a year for doing 1300 and 12? also, lynch is just plain better than greene. you can see him break tackles and make something out of nothing. greene does none of that.

there is 1 running back who made 10 million in base salary last year, adrian peterson.

fa or not, greene is not getting paid ap money. he is very much a product of the jets offensive line.

 

I am more concerned about the escalators in Sanchez's contract - if he wins superbowls it is going to cost us badly, I think we need to tank the next 5 years and then go for it in 2017.

 

Yes, this is the avoiding ruin scenario. it requires the Jets to draft much better than they have done since 2001. They're going to need to find 3-4 starters out of each of the next 3 drafts or so.

That's going to be to replace their current holes + Moore, Keller, Pace, Scott, Pouha and Greene. Or something along those lines. You never know who is going to go early or get hurt.

The idea that players routinely play to 34 or 35 is false. Some players do, but most players decline and are out of the NFL by then and that includes formerly very good ones like Mo Lewis, Marvin Jones, Keyshawn Johnson, Wayne Chrebet, Jason Fabini, Victor Green, etc.

The 2001 Jet roster had 4 guys on it who played past 35 and two of them were already there in Vinny Testaverde and Tom Tupa. The other guys were Kevin Mawae and James Farrior, both of them multiple year All-Pros to get there. Anthony Becht, John Abraham and Shaun Ellis may get there yet but not in very good shape.

When you look at the guys like Calvin Pace, Bart Scott, Bryan Thomas, Brandon Moore and Sione Pouha you need to realize that they are likely in their last 2 or maybe 3 seasons at the outside and that the last season or 2 is going to be what gets them cut.

This is why really good teams cut the 30 and 31 year olds unless they are superstars. Sometimes the good teams cut the 31 year old superstars. The Patriots have let those guys go on a regular basis. So have the Steelers.

Signing somebody like Jarret Johnson is not filling a hole, it's making the problem worse.

 

You're like talking in this tone that just sits so uneasily with me. You've got like 5 names on a list. Gotta have these guys refilled over 2 years. You're like half defeated already and we haven't even started yet. Come on old man. Just give these guys a chance with an open mind for a couple of years for me. We really could've been to the Super Bowl either of the last two years with a fighting chance to take down the whole thing.

The team that did that was really just in the infancy of the team that it is becoming now. I know you're giving me all of the defeatist bullshit about aging Scott and Pace and Thomas and blah blah blah.

That was never the core of this team, and it never will be. The core was Brick and Mangold and Revis and Harris and that core is only now entering its prime. They're never going to be better than they will be starting right now and we've added more and more talent like Wilkerson and Wilson and whatever toys we get to add especially at S and LB through FA and the draft. By next year our defensive unit is going to be beastly especially if we can retain Maybin.

You realize that we already have the replacement for Pouha right? Kenrick Ellis was drafted last year, and will replace Pouha after he leaves in 2 or 3. He is already bought and paid for and has a year of grooming already. Or are we just writing off 3rd round picks at DT as busts after their rookie years already now? It is after all a difficult transition from college NT to NFL 3-4 NT you know. No reason to assume he won't do what we ask of him when called.

We should be finding a guaranteed replacement for either Scott or Pace in the first round (second at the latest) of this years draft. A free agent safety should be added in the form of Reggie Nelson or next best available and we should also draft another to finally complete our backfield and give Rex that shutdown backfield that he so desperately craves to go fuck around with his front 7 however he wants.

This team is entering it's prime starting today. Not yesterday. Sure as hell not in 2009. Don't you remember watching the Jets with Sanchez that year running at 4 out of 5 important opportunities. It was like Tony Soprano watching baby ducks or something. Then in the playoffs he flew away from the nest all flailing about. Did the panic attacks begin for you around then Bradw4y?

 

You sound just like a dozen posters who hated what I was posting when I joined TGG in 2002 and said Bradway sucked. It's 10 years later and the Jets still haven't won a Super Bowl.

In 10 years they will not have won a Super Bowl under the current regime's established MO. We'll just have been through a couple more hills and valleys in the process.

I was 41 when I made my first post on TGG because I was just so frustrated that the promise of the Parcells years had slipped away somehow like a thief in the night. People jumped all over me for saying in the fall of 2002 that Terry Bradway was the problem and that as long as he was GM things weren't going to get better and in fact would likely get much worse.

That winter of 2003 I was probably the most negative poster TGG has ever had over a sustained period. I hated the free agent losses where Bradway let essential pieces get away from us in the form of Laveranues Coles and Randy Thomas. Those guys should have been locked up long before free agency dawned and yet they were let go without a fight. I hated the trade up for D-Rob, who came out of nowhere to move from a mid-2nd round pick to somehow being worth 2 1sts (the Coles tender pick and our own 1st) PLUS a 4th round pick.

I never let up on Bradway after that, including during the 10-6 2004 campaign. I knew the Jets were rotting and of course the part that was most rotten was the head.

Well, I hate to say it but I'm right back there now. I really do not think this regime has what it takes to get the Jets to a Super Bowl. I don't think the talent is on the roster now and I don't think the current staff can assemble enough talent via the draft and free agency over the next few years. We're headed right back into the abyss in my opinion and that's true whether the Jets bounce back next season and make the playoffs or not.

It's going to take a spectacular draft and a lot of luck in who becomes available in free agency to make that turnaround and possibly salvage 2013 and 2014. I'm not optimistic at this point. The current staff might catch the luck on the free agents but they don't have the ability to do what needs to be done in the draft. They're just not all that good at doing anything other than identifying one or two players in the draft and trading up for them. Lately they're not even really good enough to do that.

 

Well hey, historically speaking, you've certainly chosen a solid franchise to root for if you never want to get surprised or thrilled or proven wrong occasionally.

You're never going to believe it until it happens, so guess we'll just have to bring you along kicking and screaming. Don't worry about it we're a big bandwagon, plenty of horsepower to carry your weight.

 

I'm having the most amazing sense of deja vu at this point. I'm pretty sure my response in 2003 was that it's hard to pull a bandwagon with a clown car. ;p

 

If we only sign Nelson and some filler, we'll be around 112-115 mil this year. Next year we will either pay way less for Scott and Pace or they will be gone. Greene and Keller will not make close to what you are predicting, or they SHOULD be gone.

Our first round draft pick is either going to be Paces replacement, Scott's replacement, or Moores replacement. Our second rounder will be either one of those three or a new safety to replace smith.

They will also likely part ways with one of the three DEs in Ropati/Dixon/Devito, Maybin/Bryan Thomas, and one of Hunter/Vlad. Easily another 6 million off the books and most of those listed outside of Devito and Hunter are part time players.

Revis has all sorts of clauses in his contract that basically makes it impossible for him to hold out again. And when the time comes that we may need to alleviate money from the secondary, it will be Cromartie who gets moved or cut LONG before they even consider moving Revis.

This is before restructuring, before TWO DRAFTS worth of players, and before the coming increase in cap.

 

I didn't say you couldn't make your fair share of cute jokes and anecdotes along the way, did I?

 

I remember the early 90's man. I might not be as old as you, but I was there as a kid. I got the idea. it was a big joke and there was nothing in the present or immediate future that was possibly going to let that franchise bring home a title. Nothing but drunk guys cursing their team on Sunday's.

I was there when Parcells came. When people thought we had a chance. I remember looking at the heartbreak on my dad's face after he had walked away and he had seen Herm coach one or two games before he had seen all he needed to know about the guy. I probably said at the time hey well maybe we'll get the right guy in here again some day. Then Mangini happened and it was like it would never end.

But then they brought in a real football guy, Rex Ryan. And Revis got drafted. And Mangold, and Harris, and all the rest. Shit we got Brett Favre to ride off into the sunset with us for a year. Didn't win us a trophy sure, but it gave you something to cheer about for once. A guy that could really throw the football for the first time in 40 years.

There is a little kid in me that was there when your dejavu bandwagon guys were arguing with you in 2003. I would've taken their side back then too, I don't deny it. But I'm not that little kid anymore. I weathered Herm Edwards. I weathered Mangini. I've watched real football and real football teams. With our ridiculous OC and whatever cock-a-mamie conglomerate scheme he was trying to pull off I know we've never looked like the classic dominant NFL franchise yet.

This year or next, when Sanchez is finally a man, you'll see what we are. I think you're going to get surprised. Book the bet let's not probe each other on it anymore. This time next year either I'm right or you're right. The quote button is fantastic.

 

The 2000's have been worse than the 1990's because they have reminded us how much farther it is to get from average to great than to get from lousy to average. The 1990's also had 1997 and 1998 which were revelations for Jet fans before 1999 brought us all crashing back to earth again.

You can't win a Super Bowl in the free agent market. You can't win a Super Bowl trading up in the draft a lot. You can't win a Super Bowl with a cap expert at GM, because every problem winds up looking like a cap management problem when in fact the real place that Super Bowls are won is not in the fine print but on the field.

Just look at the bones man, look at the bones...

 

I think Sanchez is our boy. I think he's a rich man's Eli Manning. A poor man's Rogers. I think he's our GUY and I think he's coming to bring us the hardware. I think that Tanny has shown over and over again he can draft the star talent. Now he's going to prove to you he can draft the depth to complement that start talent.

Mostly, he's going to prove to you that Sanchez takes his reign out of the average good but not great that you seem so quick to categorize his era in. He's going to show you that Sanchez is the man that these war hardened veterans are going to look at when all of the money is down. When there's a minute on the clock and they're down by 4. He's going to take the ball in that spot and do what Brady wakes up in the morning and lives for. And Peyton, Rogers, all of them. I'm not going to say he's going to go down as being as great a quarterback as the best of the best. But he's going to get invited to their annual mixer, if they had one.

You just don't believe that deep down. And I pity you for it a little bit. Because even if you turn out to be right it's really that glimmer of hope deep down that makes life worth living. Maybe youth is brash and foolish. If you thought that in your youth you'd never dream big enough to actually bring home the trophy. You won't talk me out of it in March. Try again after the season.

 

1980: Sack Exchange
1981: Jets are good for the first time in more than a decade.
1982: Strike, Jets in AFC Championship Game. Walt Michaels fired.
1983: Starting over again.

1985: The defense is really good again. Out in the 1st round of the playoffs. Patriots to the Super Bowl.
1986: Great expectations, everybody gets hurt down the stretch. Jets somehow get to the division round anyway. Out in OT.
1987: Starting over again.

1993: Jets bring in Boomer to get things jump-started. 8-5 with 3 to go. 3 losses to end the season, no playoffs.
1994: Pete Carroll in for one season and fired because the Jets needed a better head coach. Enter Rich Kotite.

1997: Parcells comes in and turns things around but Jets lose 3 out of 4 at the end and no playoffs.
1998: Great season with Vinny not even the starter at the beginning and best season ever by a Jet's QB by the end. Get to AFC Championship Game.
1999: Vinny achilles before halftime of game 1, season over.
2000: Al Groh's team never stops fighting get Jets out to 9-4. Lose last 3 games. Miss playoffs. Al Groh resigns at end of season.
2001: Hermway comes in, Jet's tradeups start with Santana Moss. Jets make playoffs and get blown out by Raiders in 1st round. Jets play some silly number of games over 3 years in the black hole and lose all of them.
2002: Vinny toast. Chad comes through. Best season ever for a jet's QB in his 1st year. Jets win a playoff game over Peyton Manning. Make that they blowout the Colts. Then lose again to the Raiders in the black hole.
2003: Lose tons of free agents, draft like shit, and what happens when a Jets QB has a great season for them? He gets hurt early next season of course. Season over.
2004: Donnie Henderson takes over the defense and makes it great (for one season of course). Jets cruising at 9 and 3. Lose 3 out of 4 at the end. Chad is hurt. Win a playoff game but lose in OT in division round when Jets settle for two long FG's at the end because Chad is hurting.
2005: Everybody hurt or getting old and Chad is like an egg back there. Starting over.

2006: Mangini comes in and looks great the first season. Gets full of himself and becomes a celebrity. First guy in history to lose 50 lbs in the offseason and lose his ability to coach also.
2007: Starting over.
2008: Brett! Kris Jenkins! Thomas Jones! Alan Faneca! Like cotton candy on the tongue, so sweet as they get out to 9-4 and then... lose 3 in a row to miss the playoffs (for like the millionth time in my tenure as a Jet's fan.) Cotton candy all gone.
2009: Trade up for Sanchez. Sanchez great as Jets win 1st 3 starts. In a twist the Jets lose a ton of games in the middle of the year but manage to get into playoffs anyway because everybody else in contention plays like the Jets usually do down the stretch and the Jets get to play teams not trying to win at the end.
2010: The Jets look good all year but can't do anything against Pittsburgh in the 1st half of AFC Championship Game.
2011: The wheels fall off early but the Jets slowly and painstakingly put them back on again only to lose 3 in a row at the end and miss the playoffs again.

I have to tell you, that I'm privately convinced that the upside to being a Jets fan is that the football team in Hell can't possibly be more aggravating to watch over eternity than the Jets have been since 1970 or so.

 

I'm guessing we are just about the same age based on where you started.

It hurt to read that. So many bad memories. UGH!!!!

I'm at the point where I'll NEVER stop rooting, cheering, and hoping, but I don't expect to see the Jets win a Super Bowl in my lifetime.

 

Common theme: borrowed, old, injury prone QBs (and those are the best QBs we've had!)

The near future of this team depends on Sanchez and if he can become something more than mediocre.

 

http://nyjetscap.com/2012_Articles/jets2012offseason.php

One other thing I would like to touch on is the Jets 2013 salary cap. There have been a few articles floating around about the problems the Jets will have with their cap in 2013 because of the low growth in the salary cap. My estimates have the Jets committed to about $127 million in salary for 30 players. Assuming all 10 rookies make the team that will grow by $7 million and we can estimate an additional $5.5 million to fill out the roster, bringing the total to $139.5 million. Barring some dramatic change in play the Jets will immediately cut ties next season with Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Wayne Hunter, and Eric Smith. That will save the Jets about $21.1 million in cap room assuming they are replaced by minimum salary players. That will bring the Jets down to $118.4 million in cap commitments. The Jets will also carry over additional credits from 2012, and if they make minimal moves from here on out should be around $4 million. Harris, Holmes, Mangold, and Revis can all be negotiated downward if necessary as well. Due to this I don’t see 2013 being some major problem for the team. It is a situation that maybe looks bad at first glance but is by no means a debilitating issue.

 

The pain has been much worse for anyone who actually saw them win a superbowl. If you never saw that you don't really know what you're missing.

 

"Perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2012 NFL owners meetings is the salary-cap projections.

Starting with the 2014 season, revenues are expected to rise significantly because of increased television dollars and the overall strength of the game. What won't rise much is the salary cap.

After having flat caps of $120.375 million in 2011 and $120.6 million in 2012, the NFL management council told clubs Tuesday that the cap won't increase much in the next three years. In fact, the 2015 cap may go up to only $122 million, according to management council projections. "

The NFL doesn't agree with your projections.