JD should take Hamilton without hesitation at 4....

Discussion in 'Draft' started by NYJ1970, Feb 22, 2022.

  1. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2004
    Messages:
    28,912
    Likes Received:
    24,477
    Not really true on the cornerback point and to a lesser extent the pass rush idea. Troy and Ed Reed never really had above average CB play outside of Chris McAlister who had his best years before Reed got there.

    And it’s a chicken or the egg debate. No doubt that both teams had great pass rushers but how much did the playmaking ability of those two safeties contribute to the flexibility of the defense to blitz?

    But I do agree that defense needs to be tiered to be good to great. You need an above average player at all three levels. I think where those players play is irrelevant if the coach uses them correctly.
     
    NCJetsfan likes this.
  2. Unhappyjetsfan

    Unhappyjetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2013
    Messages:
    2,676
    Likes Received:
    1,603
    The only good thing about drafting Hamilton (or any other safety at #4 overall) would be that we could immediately say, "Well, there's definitive proof JD has no idea what he's doing. We can fire him right now and move on." I'd fire him before the #10 pick.
     
  3. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2005
    Messages:
    14,792
    Likes Received:
    5,600
    I know many feel Hamilton will be gone early...but not necessarily. He's not a dominate edge rusher nor a lineman, the 2 positions that will dominate the early boards.

    Being he's a Safety, we need to get him with the Jamal pick (#10). But not straight up. I want JD to trade down and pick up another 2023 1st round pick, turning Jamal into the gift that keeps on giving. Then, wherever JD trades down to, take Hamilton there. We get a better safety AND another 1st round pick. Karma baby!

    This probably can't happen, but if it ever did would be the ultimate 'icing on the cake' for the Jamal trade. It's almost like the Jamal trade is house money....take some chances and maybe, just maybe, have the best draft EVER!!!
     
    kevda5n9ne likes this.
  4. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    4,301
    Likes Received:
    7,142
    Regarding the bold - it's a tricky thing because realistically all of those positions impact the others. Great CB's mean you don't need as quick a pass rush or as good safeties, great pass rushers mean you don't need as good CB's or safeties, great safeties mean your CB's and pass rushers don't have to be quite as good, etc. It's a really complicated relationship between all of them.

    On top of that, sacks usually kill drives but so do interceptions, in fact those always kill drives by definition. I would say without question that LB's and NT's aren't as impactful as CB's, S's and edge rushers.

    I just think with how vertical the game has gotten on offense it stands to reason that great safeties are extremely important. It's no coincidence the Bills had the best safety duo in the league while simultaneously having the best defense. Combine that with how good of a safety prospect Hamilton is and I think he's a perfectly reasonable pick at #4. #4 might be a bit too high for a safety in a vacuum but when you need one as bad as we do and he'll 100% be gone by your next pick I think it's reasonable to pick him there.
     
  5. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    33,236
    Likes Received:
    26,639
    I totally understand where you're coming from and it's a totally reasonable perspective as always with you.

    I'm curious, however. What would you do if both Hutchinson and KT are gone at #4, and no team wants to trade up? Would you take Ekwonu/Neal? Would you take a CB? Would you reach for another Edge, Linderbaum, or a LB or a WR? I think you said in another post that you don't see DT as a need early, so I think it would be safe to conclude that you wouldn't take a DT. I know that you wouldn't take a QB, TE, or RB there as well, if for no other reason than we don't need a QB, and no TE or RB are rated highly enough to be taken there.
     
    westiedog1 likes this.
  6. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    12,458
    Likes Received:
    18,273
    Of course it's not just cut and dried, and no position operates in a vacuum - there's a symbiotic relationship between all of them. I'm not ignoring the impact that a great Safety can make, and frankly I'd rather see them take a highly rated Safety before a CB, but I just don't believe you build a good defense from the back to the front - I think you build from the front to the back. If we can't get consistent pressure - without blitzing - on the QB, and can't stop the run, no Safety is going to overcome that no matter how good they are. As for a Safety being more impactful than a LB, LBs can rush the QB and stop the run, as well as provide pass coverage. One can argue that Safeties can do this too, but they don't do them as frequently as LBs do. The leading tacklers each year are usually LBs, and if a Safety is your leading tackler you've got a lot more problems than he's going to solve.

    Unless the Jets can trade back and somehow get him after the #10 pick, after having picked up some additional draft capital, I think it's a luxury pick. I won't throw myself out the window if Douglas takes him with the #4 or #10 depending on how the board breaks and what he's been able to do in FA, but I hope he doesn't do that.
     
  7. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    12,458
    Likes Received:
    18,273
    I'd take either Neal or Ekonwu and not think twice. The OL is a problem until it's not, and with Becton's status and ability to fill the LT role into the future still not solidified there are too many potential problems there. It's not what I'd prefer, but it would make a bigger difference than taking Hamilton a Safety IMO.

    We've been saddled with GMs that haven't had a clue about how to build a team. I'm stunned that you could get a job that pays you millions of dollars and be that clueless about how to do it. But drafting Safeties back to back with your first two picks while overlooking the most important position, as well as ignoring other glaring holes is just staggering incompetence. Drafting a IDL with your first pick when you don't have the ability to bring pressure from the outside, another stupid move. I believe Douglas has a FAR better grasp on how to build a team, and if he decides to take Hamilton at #4 because he's the BPA that fills a need, I guess I'll trust him, but I really hope he doesn't go this route.

    I'll say this: if JD does take Hamilton and he turns out to be a key in transforming our defense, I'll happily eat crow. I just don't believe that will happen.
     
    Jets79, NYJetsO12 and Murrell2878 like this.
  8. mrjet80

    mrjet80 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2005
    Messages:
    5,053
    Likes Received:
    3,946
    I think you’re right. If Hutchinson and KT are both gone then that means Neal or Ekonwu would be JD’s pick. I would think EDGE and OL are 1A and 1B in regards to importance for JD at the top of the draft. I also don’t see any team wanting to trade up to #4.
     
    Jets79 and ColoradoContrails like this.
  9. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    4,301
    Likes Received:
    7,142
    Defending the run is the least important major thing a team needs to do in the modern game.

    The most important things to be a good team are, in order:

    Pass well
    Defend the pass well
    Run well
    Defend the run well

    QB's, WR's, S's and CB's are the most important positions in the game.

    Sure, edge rushers impact the passing game, but they also spend a lot of time defending the run which is just not that important at all. The CB's and S's are almost always doing a very important job.

    Having said all that, if KT is there at #4 I wouldn't have a problem picking him whatsoever. I just think we need to move past this notion that safeties aren't really important.

    I'll be irate if we take an OL instead of Hamilton. It would mean Douglas is a moron who knew how to build a winning football team 20 years ago but hasn't evolved his thinking to match the modern game.
     
    Ralebird and PJ4Ever like this.
  10. PJ4Ever

    PJ4Ever Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2004
    Messages:
    3,197
    Likes Received:
    1,307
    Edge rushers affect the pass way more than safeties imo. You need a pass rush in todays game
     
    SOJAZ, Jojo, Jets79 and 3 others like this.
  11. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    4,301
    Likes Received:
    7,142
    It's really important to have a pass rush but I don't think it's more important than having a good secondary.

    Best defenses in the NFL last year by opponent PPG:

    Bills
    Broncos
    Patriots
    Saints
    49ers

    Sack leaders last year:

    TJ Watt (Steelers)
    Nick Bosa (49ers)
    Robert Quinn (Bears)
    Trey Hendrickson (Bengals)
    Myles Garrett (Browns)

    Leaders in pass rush win rate if you prefer a more team-oriented metric:

    Rams
    Panthers
    Browns
    Eagles
    49ers

    Best secondaries last year:

    Bills
    Broncos
    Patriots
    Saints
    Browns

    Best safety duos:

    Bills
    Broncos
    Patriots
    Saints
    Packers?

    The overlap between the best defenses and best secondaries/safeties is striking. Much more striking than the overlap between the best pass rushing teams+players and best defenses.
     
    BrooklynJetsFan likes this.
  12. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    33,236
    Likes Received:
    26,639
    I'm torn, and am thankful I don't have to make that decision. I don't envy JD at all. The rest of the draft shouldn't be that problematic, but I see the #4 pick as hugely problematic. Unless KT is there, some other Edge or WR is deemed worthy of the #4 pick, they've been blowing smoke about how highly they deem their young CBs, or some team blows them away with a trade down offer, he's probably going to get criticized by part of the fanbase and some of the media.

    For a while I would have taken Ekwonu or Neal rather than Hamilton. I have cooled on the idea, but it's still a valid option, however. I agree that it's insurance in case Becton doesn't come back in shape, but I agree with the point made by some that #4 is way too early to be drafting a player for insurance, and it would not be a good use of draft capital imo to use a second 1st round pick and especially the #4 pick on an OG. I was never one that would have taken Quentin Nelson in the top 5. We already have used two 1st round picks on the OL. We don't need to use any more on the OL to have a good OL. If we do, it should be for a RT, not a RG. OG is not a premium position, either. In a very real sense, it would be just as bad taking an OG as it would a S. That said, should Becton not come back in shape, or not play well, Ekwonu/Neal could wind up saving Zach and the Jets' season.

    The positive thing for me in that situation is that it would be erring on the side of trying to ensure that Zach succeeds. If the Jets weren't thinking about extending Fant, then it would make more sense imo to take Ekwonu or Neal, play them at RG this season, and then move him to RT next season. The thing is, however, they are in discussions with Fant and his agent about extending his contract. It wouldn't be a good optic to take Ekwonu/Neal and then cut Fant or trade him the following year. Of course if Becton doesn't come back in shape and doesn't work hard and play well, then such a move would look brilliant, but if he does, then they'll have cap issues in a few years if they all play well.
     
  13. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    33,236
    Likes Received:
    26,639
    I strongly disagree with the bold. It will mean that he knows that the NFL is an offensive league and that if he doesn't protect Zach and help him to develop, that the Jets won't win and he probably won't have a job for long.
     
    KY Jets Fan and Jojo like this.
  14. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    4,301
    Likes Received:
    7,142
    The NFL is indeed an offensive league and it's important to protect Zach. Our OL overall was decent last year though. With FA and some acquisitions in the 2nd and 3rd round of the draft it will likely be a pretty good line (remember OL don't drop off in talent in later rounds as much as other positions, especially interior OL which is mainly what we need). I also expect Becton to lose the LT job and be a better RT than he was a LT.

    Our safeties on the other hand are currently horrendous and we had the worst defense in franchise history last year. Hamilton is also a much better safety prospect than Neal or Ekwonu are OL prospects and we need a safety much more. Taking Neal or Ekwonu means taking a guard at #4 unless Becton can't play at all, which would be unfathomably stupid.

    Go take a look at my post above to see the frankly insane overlap between good safety play and good overall defense.
     
  15. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    33,236
    Likes Received:
    26,639
    Yes our safeties are horrendous, but JD could re-sign Joyner, sign a S in FA and draft a S in the 2nd round and their play would be a lot better. We don't have to take Hamilton to get better S play.

    I disagree with the notion that Hamilton is a better S prospect than Ekwonu is an OL prospect.
     
  16. ukjetsfan

    ukjetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2005
    Messages:
    4,031
    Likes Received:
    2,645
    I stopped reading after you accused anyone who thought differently of not knowing what they are talking about. There are ways to raise points, ways to present arguments, that don't rely on denigrating everybody who disagrees with you.

    Having said that, I would have no problem taking Hamilton if one of the top pass-rushers doesn't fall into our laps.
     
    apjbfc and K'OB like this.
  17. K'OB

    K'OB 2021 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2016
    Messages:
    12,460
    Likes Received:
    11,380
    No, the best part was slagging off all the posters who don't agree with him inside the first sentence and then again in the second.

    Hardly makes you want to read the rest of his thoughts tbh

    @ukjetsfan beat me to it
     
  18. Nyjets4eva

    Nyjets4eva Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2005
    Messages:
    977
    Likes Received:
    601
    If KT drops we gotta take him at 4, if not I would be ok with one of the OL. Because personally with that number 10 pick I would really love Suace if he’s still there. That kid is special man
     
    BrowningNagle likes this.
  19. BroadwayZach

    BroadwayZach Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2008
    Messages:
    14,144
    Likes Received:
    18,036
    Thats why the only reasonable thing to do in my head was make a total mockery of him.
     
    K'OB likes this.
  20. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2003
    Messages:
    21,759
    Likes Received:
    21,288
    Sauce is a great football name. I havent seen much of his game but Im gonna check it out because we could use a good corner. Agree with everything else in your post 100%
     

Share This Page