Hey Jay Watching Weather Channel since yesterday and they keep mentioning US Model and Euro Model. What are the differences between the two?
From what I have read, the Euro model has historically been the more accurate. I believe they're just two computers which forecast the weather. Possibly software and hardware differences are what causes the difference between the different models. There are also plenty other models out there as well as far as I know. This article is a few years old, but it may give some insight http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097 EDIT: Here's an article from 2012 that should help> It discusses why the US model is inferior and why the Euro is the gold standard in the world. http://judithcurry.com/2012/03/30/u-s-weather-prediction-falling-behind/
Pretty much on Leon. The euro model is the European model. The GFS is the American model. Sadly, the "Euro" has been much more accurate over the past 5-7 years..not to say the GFS doesnt have its moments. The curious thing is you would figure by now...why a model dominates another model would have been studied and improved by which model does better with certain storms. Regardless, the problem with this storm is that these models are generally used for normal weather patterns...snow storms...cold fronts...hot and humid etc. What they fail to perfect..or come close to is a tropical system. These models should really start nailing this thing in the next 24 hours because the storm is beginning to lose its tropical charcteristics and becoming more of a hybrid..a mix between a noreaster and tropical. There lies this storm of the century stuff. Many countries have their own models...the CMC canadian...JMA Japan etc that forecast OUR weather. There is even the NOGAPS which is the American Navy model. With that said...the GFS and Euro ARE USUALLY the most common referenced..and the Euro shows a MD hit..and the GFS now shows a Cape Cod hit..and what most of the time happens..the middle ground is where it ends up...which is NYC. Hope that helps.
You know Im kidding you jon...one of my all time tgg favorites buddy. Like I said..since this storm is rare you do not have to be too close to the eye to get damaging winds. But here is a couple things to keep in mind. Where the eye comes across will greatly affect many in a positive way even if you are close to the eye. Some areas will be dryslotted...meaning cold dry air moving into the circulation will cause very windy but mostly dry periods. Another thing is where the eye comes inland and then stalls...those under the former eye will actually have long periods of not much rain or wind. Some will luck out because this will not be a super tight storm...there will be lulls. Some will set up in other areas of the storm and just get pounded for 24 hours.
Oh...and the reason i came back here: Breaking **ALERT** Mandatory evac. for Cape May County, NJ barrier islands Sun: Stone Harbor, Avalon, Sea Isle City, Ocean City #njwx
And perhaps some inside information...Bloomberg has a 3pm N.C. and dont be surprised if he issues a state of emergency at that time.
Thanks Leon. And thanks Jay I didn't know US Model was inferior to Euro model. What a shame. Well the new Euro model will be announced at 3 PM per Weather Channel. We should see updated graphics from Euro model by 4 PM.
The first evacuation orders have been issued along the Jersey Shore in advance of Hurricane Sandy. The Cape May County Emergency Management office issued the orders for Friday and Saturday for barrier islands. The evacuation orders will become mandatory on Sunday. Voluntary evacuation orders are also being given in Mantoloking, Ocean County. Hurricane Sandy is expected to make landfall early Tuesday, but the impact could be felt as early as Sunday. Strong winds and heavy rain could cause record flooding along our coastline. NBC10 Chief Meteorologist Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz says Sandy could bring more hours of rain and wind than we saw with Hurricane Floyd or Irene. Due to this impending threat, the Camden City Public School District announced on Friday that all schools will be closed on Monday and Tuesday because of Sandy.
Last years little Haloween storm caused a huge amount of damage because the leaves were still on the trees when it hit. The wet snow and ice created a huge amount of weight that coupled with the wind brought trees down everywhere on the inland side away from the Coast. Put down a few inches of rain and trees are going to be failing everywhere. If you live in land and you start getting some snow on the back end keep your heads securely up your ass and your ass securely away from the windows.
really tough to say. I just dont believe the actually location of the eye is that significant when it comes to damages. The main concern of the eye is for NYC...if the eye comes in south of NYC that means major water being thrown into the harbor. First lesson in weather is this...the storm has a counter clockwise rotation...so if you can imagine the storm comes in at Asbury Park...those to the north of that get the storm surge..where people to the south get winds coming off the land..hope that makes sense. Regardless...all areas will receive storm surge for awhile....the storm eye to the north is the key to those that will receive devastating surges from the ocean..or harbors.
good point biggs...right now they are forecasting the heavy snows for Western PA, WV, Western NY...but that really depends on where the eye comes in..the further south means not much snow..but a NYC landfall would wrap the cold air around those above mentioned areas. Some models had most of WV at more than a foot of snow.
Jay anything really to worry about in Upstate NY? (Syracuse/Rochester area) I can't imagine we will get much more than high winds and some heavy precip. Where it makes landfall is going to be the worst of it I'm sure.
