Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

lol..ty cman..again...Im pretty good at knowing where the bullshit is and who is dead on in the past and reading through the nonsense but truthfully, from scratch, could never ever do this just by reading maps.

You are stocked up and ready for the winter..good man!

 

Didnt mean anything by it D. Didnt think so...wanted to comment on it. Its a very good, in the weather world, spaghetti map. Shows all the models and what they are showing. Its just missing the GFS and Euro..two of the better ones.

It really is a great post and good find. I will try to show a map with all of them...it will make your head spin.

 

The male orgies should still be on Jon Jon...your good to go buddy!! Jon..why does everyone throw the gay stuff at you? For the record..I believe you to be a 100 percent heterosexual (that might dream about going dark but would never really do it).

 

Thats the messed up thing Type. If you look at the Euro model projection..it only has the storm about 200 miles off your coast...it would take very little change to put that thing on land at the NC/SC border..and then swing it back over water. Keep an eye out. Regardless..the beaches will take a huge hit. We have property on North Topsail Beach and when I was down there last week....at high tide...the water was coming right up to the stairs that lead over the dunes.

Will not take much to do major damage down there. Good luck bud..if I see any changes i will post them. The GFS model comes at 1030 and most importantly, the Euro comes out after 1am and I will post what they say.

 

Again..like TypeOne...not much change in the models would put you guys in even more danger...I will post the newest models in the next couple hours.

 

Forget about where this ends up...what this chart shows is the bizzare behavior in its possible track...crazy:

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-11969-1351125380.gif

 

DS and TypeOne..here is a great site to keep up with watches and warnings for you guys:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/242350.shtml?text

 

Precip amounts...I think they are actually UNDERDONE for many areas:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

Just realized..its underdone because it goes out only until Tuesday. This will wind up going all the way until Wednesday because of a heavy stall once it comes inland..but lets not even start with the stall.

 

From NOAA...and they are usually conservative:

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INFINITE SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENTLY EVOLVING
PATTERN...IN GENERAL IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN
IMPRESSIVE-TO-EXTREME TROPICAL-TO-EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE THAT
WILL HAVE PAPERS WRITTEN ABOUT IT IN YEARS TO COME. IT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO COVER EACH OF THE VARYING SOLUTIONS....BUT WE CAN
ROUGHLY BREAK IT DOWN INTO THREE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES:

1 - SANDY MOVES INLAND...BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL WHILE ITS REMNANT
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO SOMEWHERE WITHIN NYS. THIS PRODUCES
A WHOLE BUNCH OF RARE FORECAST ISSUES...WITH HEAVY RAIN...HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW...AND A NE WIND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

2 - SANDY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE OR
AFTER LANDFALL...BUT A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORCES NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT
INLAND WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DYING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS TOO
WOULD PRODUCE AN ELEVATION SNOW EVENT...WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME WIND TOO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

3 - SANDY MOVES HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA AND BECOMES A FANTASTIC FISH
STORM. ANOTHER SYSTEM EVOLVES AND SPREADS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...OR MAYBE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT EVEN EXIST.

 

No problem Hiker...here is a great look at the future track of the storm. Now this track has it coming in around R.I. but you get the point why it goes out to sea and then gets pulled by a front charging in from the left...cold meets tropic and then boom. Just h it the animate button on the left and watch to the south...the hurricane and to the west..the cold front.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

one thing I have noticed on todays models is that it no longer is being forecasted as a cat 2 or 3 storm when it gets up here..in fact it stays cat 1 the whole time..that is very good news. Now the models are in the mid range and they start to get a bit crazy. By friday..it will be pretty much set.

 

two answers to this question and now its important. You are never truly fucked until the storm is done what the models said and is heading right for you.

With that said...when all the models agree on everything except the exact landfall...WE ARE FUCKED.

2 OF THE 3 major models have said we are screwed but the american model has steady very consistent until 1pm today...and its official....WE are screwed.

Heres the bottom line..anyone between Maryland and Long Island including all of N.J. somewhere between there is landfall..and i can say with 90 percent certainty that is now the case...all the models agree.

There will be nice differences but not huge differences with how hard we get screwed...but everyone in that area and 100 miles inland will get their storm of the century starting late sunday night..and ending late tuesday night.

Once the storm hits land it STALLS and I mean it goes from NYC to lets say Windham NY..a 2 hour drive in about 24 hours..very slow moving. Will provide more details and Im not into scaring the crap out of people..but in those areas...hopefully you have a generator...just be ready.