good stuff jay - i see accuweather.com starting to perk up with this thing. i have siad before those folks are crazy and intense about this stuff - just like we are with football. is this thing 1 system or 2. i took a quick peak at a couple models last night and read a few posts and it looks like we get a phasing in there of the atlantic storm and energy coming in from the midwest? or is just the tropical system.
depends on the model J. The model i trust the most, the Euro...seems to keep it a single system with a merge of a front. Most storms tend to lose steam when they head in to colder waters but this, in the long run, will be a phasing..with a decent speed which doesnt allow these storms to lose as much power. The latest Euro shows land fall in Southern New England with a grazing of L.I. Strong winds 100 miles inland. The second wild part about the storm is the snow amounts forcasted for inland areas...the Apps. Stupid numbers right now that Im sure will not happen...over 3 feet. But this is one of those storms that happens every couple decades. IF THE MODELS ARE RIGHT. 7 days out? Lets see.
Great thing about models is that days out they change. When a models all agree with 48 hours it rises to about 75 % chance it happens. Reason i state this is that what the latest models showed...is incredible and hopefully would never ever happen. Direct hit for Long Isalnd with a pressure of 937..unheard of. The east coast would be a disaster. Will link to the picture: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=171912 Possible? I guess...but even a weather freak doesnt want that to happen.
From a very trusted weather geek...once again....its based on MODEL runs..but this particular model has shown the same storm 4 times in a row...unheard of: DT "12z Euro image showing Sandy heading right for the NY Metro area. If this were to come true, it would be the worst Hurricane/Nor'easter to strike the region since the 1938 Hurricane"
Yeah...something about the Halloween season. This is some weather chat...but you get the drift if you read it carefully: WE`VE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH MID RANGE CHC POPS AND TIMING TIED TO THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL AND THEN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... AND INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST ENTICING AND DRAMATIC...AND WOULD RESULT IN A STORM OF EPIC PROPORTION TO SAY THE LEAST FOR COASTAL AREAS SPANNING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DIALING IT BACK THOUGH...SUCH A SOLUTION HAS A 20 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF OCCURRING AS WE ARE 5+ DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED AS WE`LL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING CLOSELY AND TWEAKING FORECASTS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. The ecmwf is the Euro model and 3 other models have started to lean that way. And yes..remember...5 days out..this would be a Sunday Monday Tuesday storm. I was incorrect before stating Monday/Wednesday.
Jay is up against it htis year. If he has another horrible season like last, we may have to pull the plug on this thread. Good luck Jay
just map quested your location...lol..wasn't sure of Hopewell junction. Hmmm..real borderline for some snow but right now I doubt it...could be a mix thing...rain to snow to rain...thats what im thinking because the storm comes first..pulls the cold air in..but remember..this is a subtropical system and the ocean is still warm...back to rain. Then again...so was last Halloween.
If you read back Jon Jon you will see that with every storm I was very pessimistic because the year sucked. With that said..yeah Jon...pressure...lots of pressure and Im feeling it man. And if they pull the thread because I suck this year, we can always make another one featuring male pleasuring toys and a picture of you Miss ya buddy!!
Hurricane season was a huge dud... For 7 straight years, the weather morons have been hyping the season up...And this year we get flooding from Isaac...That's it. We even got the season upgraded a few months ago to make it worse...Nothing since. And every year, the property insurance companies cry to the GOP boards in Tallahassee saying that they need more increases because of the phony forecasts... And they get their damn increase every fucking year (duh)...
Now that sucks DS...the long range forecasts are such bullshit for the most part. The only thing they USUALLY nail is long range temps. For instance, Accuweather has been big on a snowy Mid-Atlantic/Northeast this year. Bullshit? Well they are going by the fact that it will be colder than usual and an El Nino year. Thats it. Long range forecasts affecting future insurance is a friggin disgrace.
Damn....busted...lets move this to the "really skinny women of the 30's" thread. Yes..weather. Models and experts are chirping about a nyc metro landfall. Really trying to keep this cool and legit but if these models keep the same predictions up by Thursday night and Friday...the news will be covering this almost non-stop. Non-stop.
Looks like my Nov 3rd Striper trip will have to be put off. Even if that TS moves offshore, it will stir up enough ocean to make any inshore fishing trip not worth it as the swells alone would make Popeye seasick.
geez i hope not - that puts me on the east side of the storm and there are many many trees waiting to snap off a limb and bring down some wires. lets see what today shows.
indeed stay off the boat. that being said i may have to test a few breakers with the surf board and wetsuit friday/saturday.
