Do they "know"? No that being said, dont look at the latest GFS model (which will change 535 more times) edit: the EURO is even worse
I was totally confused, looking at your post and the graphic I focused on Florida thinking the wave coming through the Eastern Carinnean was Gaston but now see it is way up north. I guess the one down south will be Hermine.
Yeah, I kinda jumped the gun calling that wave "Gaston". I didnt think that system in the NE would gain storm status...Potential "Hermine" is looking to be a real bitch though
Yeah, was looking at Tropical Tidbits I guess it's the euro shows it pretty major coming right through Central Fla. right around weekend after next. Looks similar to Charlie's track from 2004 if I remember correctly
So I usually don't worry too much about these storms but my one daughter, with my new grandbaby, is in the Manatee County area on the Gulf, and another just north of that in Pinellas County, both within 5 miles of the water, I am just a bit wary this time. Of course I am going to tell them to come stay with us, we are on the 4th floor of a condo in Polk County in the middle of the state but they, and their husbands, are all as hard headed as me so they will probably resist evacuating. H Charlie, TS Debbie and H Irma all hit this area pretty hard so we do get some of it but of course not like the costal areas. Just hoping some of you experts can keep an eye on things and let me know what you think about strength and possible track. I trust this thread more than the local stations that always predict majpor death and destruction.
Still way too early to tell unfortunately, and there's a big spread between the 2 major models)... but if it looks like theyre on the N side of the storm, they'll get worse winds, but less storm surge.... N side of the storm on the eastside = we're fuct. One of those tracks has it directly overhead after cutting across. We 'll get flooding simply because ICW will be full from a few days of hard onshore winds, not allowing rain to escape (this happenned during Irma)
Thanks. Between the 2 of them the closest to water is 2 miles and it's off Tampa Bay so shouldn't be an issue at home, getting anywhere after could be an issue. But it's better than the winds. Looks like it's going over the western portion of Cuba also so no mountains to knock the storm down a notch either. Rains have been crazy here, lake levels are so high many can't get through the canals between lakes.
The remnants of Fiona have left hundreds of thousands of people without power in Nova Scotia. By some measures, this is the strongest storm on record in Atlantic Canada. I was there a month ago, taking a cruise up north precisely because you don't want to be cruising the Caribbean during hurricane season. I'm sure that this is an incredible shock to the people we interacted with up there.
Well if the storm has to hit somewhere, which it looks like the current center of the forecast cone is Apalachee Bay, then that is probably the best that could be hoped for. Of course the people living right there would not agree but it is one of the lesser populated areas on the Gulf Coast.
Looks like it shifted a bit east again, center of forecast cone hitting around Cedar Key. not extremely populated there but this track would have it right off the coast of Manatee, Pinellas, Pasco so shifting a little more east would not be good. One better part of this forecast right now is it passes close to Tampa Bay near low tide as far as I can tell but not going to matter much if it hits the forecasted 130 mph winds they are saying, with gusts up to 160 mph Edit: Now looks like around 2am Thursday, near Pinellas and Tampa, which is close to high tide @typeOnegative13NY your daughter have a place to head to?
they are starting to look into it now (better late than never I guess). They have a dog so hotels etc will be hard to come by. At worst they could leave Tuesday eve and head up here. I saw they could get 10+ of rain, plus a 10ft surge, that whole area would be under. I dont see it shifting west anymore… it’s trended east consistently. Yesterday it was at 25% probability to cross over the state , instead of hitting the panhandle, how it’s at 45%. Even shows it going back over the Atlantic and hitting here this weekend now on that track.
