Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2003
    Messages:
    14,485
    Likes Received:
    4,288
    Yeah, a direct hit and high tide will be very bad for that area.. never took much to push water into town. If it hits EH or even a little west, it puts montauk on the eastern side … not good. I heard the roads are jammed with evacuations.
    I remember bob and Gloria , bad enough and they weren’t direct hits. Don’t remember much of surge with those though. Then again, I was too young to drive then. There was probably more beach left then too.
     
  2. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2003
    Messages:
    14,485
    Likes Received:
    4,288
    They keep talking about extended outages. Up to 2 weeks. That’s what we had with hurricane bob. Hard to believe that nearly 30 years later it could be like that again. Bathing In The pool and cooking spaghetti on the charcoal grill. . Been through 5 storms here in sc and never went without power for more than 48 hours.
     
  3. Ralebird

    Ralebird Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    14,063
    Likes Received:
    8,646
    Since PSEG took over LIPA they've been overpromising and underperforming. It looks like they now want to underpromise and vigorously pat themselves on the back when those threats of two week outages don't come true. Of course if the damage that occurs could be handled in five days by a competent utility and they take ten, it's still too long but they beat their own goal. Expecting a rate increase here.
     
    typeOnegative13NY likes this.
  4. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    SORRY...posted this in the other thread....but here is the thinking this morning.

    Just checked radar and as of 930, looks to be ready if not already making landfall at the Southeast corner of Rhode Island....I mentioned in another post how it would not surprise me watching this thing chugging along pretty fast to see it come to an end much quicker than is forecasted for LI,NYC,NJ. Like..much earlier....late afternoon early evening. But futurecast is still showing bands coming through NYC and north Jersey albeit nothing very strong.

    So...possible earlier than thought exit.

    OK...HERE IS THE POST IN WRONG THREAD! LOL..very sorry.

    holy crap...you talk about a s shift to the east???? In all my years following weather I have never seen such a dramatic change in track within 24 hours? Wow.

    Good news: Long Island...no landfall at all. Along the north shore you will see water being pushed higher as the storm passes. Still much rain but as you get to central western LI...its .....incredible.
    Bad news: Coastal southeast CT...and most of all Rhode Island which somehow 24 hours later gets a possible direct hit.

    Also since the track is more east...much more east....its means less ...much less for NJ...NYC...AND basically all of NY state.

    The eastern part of LI....is still close enough to get high winds...but as the storm approaches very good news that storm surge will be much less.

    Here is the current forecast for NYC still....I think now these numbers are pretty inflated. ...not seeing how gusts can be as high as 45 mph but they are still calling for it...so be prepared:
    Today
    Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 78. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
    Tonight
    Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Steady temperature around 75. Southwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.


    Tried to pick city/ town in north jersey so you get an idea so lets pick BROOK: Morristown right:?
    Today
    Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 78. West wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
    Tonight
    Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 69. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.


    Two things here....and I am just a cynical prick this morning...slept like shit last night. First...chance of precip 90% for Morristown which is much farther west of the storm then NYC...and next....the winds...they, I guess, were too tired to put down a guess at wind gusts. They have the 10 to 15 winds...but decided to play it by ear with gusts....for a tropical system.

    and then much farther east...this is a doozie of a forecast...some real balls went into this one.

    Today
    Tropical storm conditions, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall.
    Tonight
    Tropical storm conditions possible, with hurricane conditions also possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 72.


    the new copout of making a real forecast...tropical storm condtions possible...hurricane winds possible...with no actual guess at wind speed. ...so anywhere between 39 mph and lets say 160 mph I guess. This is the new thing...i noticed it down here last hurricane. They should be casterated.

    I told you...very bad sleep night last night.

    Top left corner...just put your zip code in to get your forecast from the NWS.
    https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.7935&lon=-74.4777#.YSJDEY5KiUk

    Will keep watching.
     
  5. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Cant believe they canceled Yankee game instead of moving to 7pm start. Bastards. Whats the damn rush in canceling games so early??? I get you do not want people driving there...that makes sense...but just backup game to 7pm and this game could have easily been played...look out your window at 7pm tonight and tell me if you think so.
     
  6. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2004
    Messages:
    36,670
    Likes Received:
    14,472
    Total bomb in Northern Fairfield County so far. Rain, and not much of it. No winds at all.

    I battened down the hatches last night just in case but I doubt that we have any serious effects from Henri at all.

    This, BTW, is a very good thing. The treated wood road wall that blocks noise from 84 is in a horrible state of repair and basically would have turned into wooden shrapnel if it got hit by any major winds. Not sure who is responsible for maintenance on it but whoever has the job has not done it for years now.
     
  7. Ralebird

    Ralebird Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    14,063
    Likes Received:
    8,646
    Were you going to the game? Looks like it's been pretty damn wet all day in the Bronx.
     
    jaywayne12 likes this.
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    No RB..wanted something to watch and they got that right I think....im not up there now but it seemed the backside kept the precip in longer than I thought it would.

    Selfish bastard I am.
     
  9. Ralebird

    Ralebird Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    14,063
    Likes Received:
    8,646
    Looks like the Bronx River Parkway was really a river on Sunday, over six inches of rain there. The first Jets - Giants game I went to at Yale was followed by a torrential rain that closed down a bunch of roads near the NY/Connecticut border; took forever to get home to Long Island and I had to get up early to take a long qualifying exam for a job the next day. It could have been worse; somebody drowned on the Hutchison River Parkway that night.
     
    jaywayne12 likes this.
  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    omg...wow....What year around was that RB? I made a video about how I became a Jet fan that I have probably shared here before....it was 1969 ...it was Super Bowl Sunday...but it had nothing to do with the Jets winning...crazy story since my entire...I mean entire family is Giant fans. Anyway...in the video I began to think about later on when I started getting into it in the 70s....and the one of the few things I really remember in detail I THOUGHT was how at some point in the 70s, no matter how good or bad the Jets were, they beat the Dolphins. So now...i put myself out there lol....without searching first. So I go and search and I will leave you guys here what I found. During the Walt Michaels era...and just BEFORE the Mud Bowl....this is how they did against the Dolphins.

    11/22/1981 Miami Dolphins 15 @ New York Jets 16 L Box
    10/04/1981 New York Jets 28 @ Miami Dolphins 28 T/OT Box
    12/20/1980 New York Jets 24 @ Miami Dolphins 17 L Box
    10/27/1980 Miami Dolphins 14 @ New York Jets 17 L Box
    12/15/1979 New York Jets 27 @ Miami Dolphins 24 L Box
    09/30/1979 Miami Dolphins 27 @ New York Jets 33 L Box
    11/26/1978 New York Jets 24 @ Miami Dolphins 13 L Box
    09/03/1978 Miami Dolphins 20 @ New York Jets 33 L Box

    Amazing what stupid things we remember...but then again...we hang every damn hat we had on this. The rest of the story wasnt always that great...but 7-0-1 against the Dolphins.

    Yeah...if you remember the year RB...Yale Giants Jets...wow. Good stuff.
     
  11. Ralebird

    Ralebird Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    14,063
    Likes Received:
    8,646
    I was at the Yale Bowl for the first Jets Giants game in 1969 back when preseason games were treated like real games, over 80,000 people were at that game. That's when the Jets confirmed they were the real thing and winning the championship (now called the Super Bowl) in January was no fluke - there were still plenty of doubters going into the game.

    I attended two or three more while the preseason games were played there until 1975. The only year I can rule out for the big storm in that period is 1974 because that game was on a Saturday, all the rest were Sundays. 1975 probably makes the best sense because the government job I was testing for the next day I was hired for in 1976.
     
  12. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    13,227
    Likes Received:
    11,560
    Looks like the Cajuns are about to get whacked again :confused:

    Was thinking of heading across the state to surf somewhere in the panhandle area, but winds look to arrive in time for the swell...

    [​IMG]
     
    #16712 stinkyB, Aug 27, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2021
  13. Cman68

    Cman68 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    36,856
    Likes Received:
    30,516
    Ida just showed up here in the Susquehanna Valley. Really heavy rain in the forecast with totals near 6". Good thing I had a new drainage system installed over the summer so I should be good. Just glad I don't live at the bottom of the hillside we're on but about halfway up.
     
    stinkyB likes this.
  14. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2003
    Messages:
    14,485
    Likes Received:
    4,288
    We have a cold front passing through tonight. So excited. The first sign that fall is coming. Should have 3 days of really nice cool nights, and much lower humidity. It will get hot again, but the waves don’t last as long .
     
    regan62072 likes this.
  15. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2003
    Messages:
    14,485
    Likes Received:
    4,288
    Hope everyone in the tri state area are safe at home. Pretty rough night. Tornadoes, flooding… I read that there is major flooding in nyc . Major highways flooded , people stranded on the roofs of cars, subways flooded.
     
  16. Satan

    Satan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2005
    Messages:
    1,784
    Likes Received:
    1,485
    Major flooding in ny , nj
    My niece at the tennis
    Goodluck peeps
    State of emergency declared
     
  17. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    9,741
    Likes Received:
    9,451
    I just got home from Mohegan Sun in CT. Took me over 2 hours to get to New Milford and it was probably the worst weather I have ever driven in. The rain was coming down so hard that it was like driving in fog. And the last 20 miles were all backroads with major flooding. I ended up picking up a tree stump that got caught under my car. It was in one of the mini rivers I drove through so I never saw it. I thought I had a flat tire so I had to pull over in the monsoon to check. That's when I looked under the car and saw it. I had to drive a another mile until I found a parking lot where I could back up and free it.

    That was one fucking miserable ride home.
     
  18. regan62072

    regan62072 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2017
    Messages:
    391
    Likes Received:
    328
    Flooding all over NYC tonight but thankfully not by me, though I’m right by the water.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
     
  19. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2005
    Messages:
    26,723
    Likes Received:
    6,824
    Record-breaking rainfall for the second time in a couple of weeks. My old neighborhood of southeast Queens was hit terribly hard.
     
  20. regan62072

    regan62072 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2017
    Messages:
    391
    Likes Received:
    328
    Seems like most flooding damage was inland, not from the storm surge like Sandy. I had 6 feet of water then, nothing last night.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
     

Share This Page