FJAY Still time for more changes either way but I am real close to the 12-18 range but possibly not there yet and and a weeee bit more North n West and you are in that 6 -12,,,,,IMO
What am I at? Serious question. Will kick you out of this thread 24 hours if you don't give me a fair estimate. Anything above 10 inches will get you perma banned.
Arm is good but sinuses full. And still fatigue. Boys are ready. They say bring it on. They can't wait for their shiny $20 bill each.
First off I hope your sinuses get better and my estimate is BE HAPPY you have those boys to whip, as you are gonna need em
I think more for you bud. Qpf over nnj is going to be really interesting with this storm. Crazy winds even though this storm will not be a real bully even though it will drop big time snow. Blame the high to the north for the big winds and blizzard conditions many will feel. Two things to watch for 1. Rain snow line. Gfs and nam cold. Euro warmer. If euro plays out long island will be crazy to predict. 2. Models are all showing this storm to be a slow mover and when it pulls away it will crawl...while that is happening crazy banding will set up so somewhere people will think its mostly over ....but it will drop more heavy snow Not sure where that sets up but gfs wants it to be nw Jersey and southern NY state....and lots of Connecticut. Keep up the great work!!
I’m on the NJ coast Monmouth-ocean county area....I’ve seen forecasts at 12-18 inches of snow and then others 1-3 inches and then all rain Either way seems like crazy winds...any idea on if it’s snow or rain for us?
Yours is all model dependent. If the american models are right you get the 12 plus. If the foreign models are right you get the other. ...and it washes away very fast The reason for the incredible winds might be the reason you get the snow. This storm, while dropping a bunch of liquid /frozen, is not a deep strong low. Barely under 1000 mb's. Its the amazing high pressure to the north and the gradient in between. Was just checking temps around the us Canadian border and it damn cold. Zero or below. That is the cold feed for this storm BUT is the storm strong enough to pull all that cold air in? A lot gets in....but enough for Eastern long island and jersey coast? Big question. I'm sure by 4pm tomorrow the experts will narrow it down so see where it's at then. If I wanted snow...I would not like the setup but again...that damn high is strong. Could be enough The track is perfect. Also like I mentioned above some are going to get a huge second punch as it CRAWLS away. That banding will be easy to see on radar...while everyone gets their total...the band area...and it will be very wide...will get an extra 6 to 8"
Appreciate the response, I guess tomorrow afternoon like you said will have more clarity. I’ve seen this before though, the jersey shore is on this rain/ snow toss up line a lot. A few years ago we were supposed to get a ton of snow and literally got all rain out of nowhere
Yep. Good point. In fact just checked latest models and the battle line is i95 in jersey. Two things caught my eye Duration.... Ends Tuesday... Maybe evening but most damage is Monday Monday night. Again on Tuesday banding will set up and where that lands over 2 feet Second...wow. For those that stay all snow ...take the max number in your area. 14 to 20? 20. ALSO SHOVEL. DONT wait til the end. Tuesday many that got snow may end with a brief bout of sleet and even rain. Nightmare.
Still time for some changes but not much time all I can say is this,,,,,, I know we are not at game time yet but we are close that said = every single model last night gave NYC at least 12 inches of snow . So here is my 2 cents = The Euro model has a track that is more West and the Nam model ( which right now is within its deadly range of being accurate ) is more East so IMO we should split the difference and say that this storm will track in the middle of both models but even if one or the other is correct this storm appears to be a monster and it appears to be a very long duration ( it will snow for a lot of hours ) which is something we have not seen in a while. The overnight weather models are spitting out just ridiculous snow totals that I do not even want to post them here. The winds should be absolutely stupid with this storm.Lets see what the guidance says this morning to have an even better idea but if you are a snow luver get ready to have some fun as you have waited a while for something like this and it appears to be headed our way ! I would start your blowers today to make sure they are working I would get some extra gas in case you need the generator as some ares like L I and other areas "might" ( never talk in absolutes RIGHT Jayster ? ) see a wet heavy snow. The models have been particularly all over the MADISON area and they are showing that area getting absolutely crushed in fact snow totals there are most likely to be double all other ares ---> Thats all I got
Great to see you Jayster from reading the threads I am not sure who the kids miss more me or you that said great to hear from you brother we ALL enjoy and learn from your insight and luv when you make these cameos. How are you doing ?
You guys keep saying MADISON will be buried.. I dunno, but on accuweather, they keep an icon over where MADISON should be located..They're still in the deep blue.
This is what I am showing for New Milford, CT. Does that look about right? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
The My Radar app is showing 2” by me in Brooklyn right now, I’m right at the coast though. Hoping they’re right Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Oh I'm sure it's you my bud. I'm just a weather whore. Doing incredibly great my man. Feel good. No complaints. Wish I was in it. The storm will actually get it's shit together off my coast...so I will try to help out. Again man...as you mentioned ...the duration and the second round of heavy snow will set up between the Poconos and North Jersey up to SENY State and central CT. So while most get their 14 to 18 areas within those stated ...some will add on 6 to 8. And a small section in that area will get close to 30. Who? Don't know...but early Tuesday morning the radar will tell you. All thanks to the upper low swinging SLOWLY IN on Tuesday. Hell...if this keeps up some might be getting snow Wednesday morning still. BUST: RAIN SNOW LINE. Because this storm truly isn't a deep powerful low...that line will jump around. The big problem now is jersey coast? Eastern LI? Central LI? Heck NYC? Believe the cold to the north....the real power behind this storm and blizzard conditions will mostly win....which will narrow the bust line. Cold to the north you say? How about currently 1 degree in Ottawa -2 Quebec -4 Sudbury Just to the left in canada it's in the 20s. To the right...20s. This cold feed and the gradient between the high up there and our low will produce blizzard conditions for many. And your local weather guys will say this is a powerful storm. Well you guys now know it's not really. Thank canada for this blizzard. Great to see you guys. Oh...models. Here on until tonight follow the NAM 3Km....then the 6 to 8 hour models.
Oh...one last thing. Let's play the word of the day. VIRGA VIRGA =PATIENCE. VIRGA the snow on radar should start in next couple hours. Huh? Yep...but dry cold air will win the day and that snow will not reach the ground. So do not think your radar is nuts. It will take perhaps 8 to 12 hours for the air to moisten up enough to let those flakes hit the ground. So tell the kids hey....it's snowing outside....but it's not really snowing. Good luck kids.
