Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    6th hurricane to affect NC in the last 10 years...insane.
    For those that live in northeast SC and southeast NC few things to consider besides wind
    1. Tornadoes....very favorable environment for development...more than usual with tropical development. This is a real fast hit...the thunderstorm activity will be thru the roof. The line between cooler air to the west feeding into warm above average ocean temps... within the system will be common to the NE side of the eye.
    2. When you hear 4 to 6 inches of rain and locally higher...it sounds impressive but not unheard of
    Besides on and off showers and squalls during the day...the main event will be between 4 and 6 hours...and 2" an hour RAIN will be commonplace...flash flooding big time.
    3. Really don't care what the experts say...but a continuing or bump in strengthening just before landfall would not surprise me in the least...wind shear will be at it's lowest point...and the ocean temps are very warm.
     
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  2. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    While I know it's re-strengthening, This storm is so lopsided that barring something radical, if you're on the west side, it's a minor event. I had more rain in a 30min T-storm a few days ago than I've had in the past 24hrs.... hopefully that wasnt a jinx. good luck.
     
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  3. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    btw... tell these TV people to shut-up about "Dangerous rip currents"!!

    NO SHIT, there 12' seas and 35mph winds.... I had enough and turned off the TV
     
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  4. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Moving a little faster than they thought. Yesterday it was supposed to be over us at 2 am, now at 2 am it shows it 50-60 miles north.
     
  5. Fred Mertz

    Fred Mertz Active Member

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    Hopefully that helps with the flooding.
     
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  6. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, looks like it’s going between 20-22 mph. Pretty fast for a tropical system. Hopefully that does help, probably increases the tornado risk though
     
  7. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    SB and type1 make a good read with speed. If you end up in the dry slot of this...because of that speed .,..very little time to wrap things around.
    Amazingly if you go by the nws...that will be east of the eye...yet east of the eye will have strongest winds
    Perfect example is me...they have downed potential rains to 3 to 5...yet hurricane winds ....we are in the sweet spot.
    My main watch from here on is the final 100 to 150 miles before landfall ....does it remain this chopped up yet formidable mess....or does it get it's shit together for the first time in many days.
    This could be the ugliest system that has lasted this long ...I can ever remember.
     
  8. Fred Mertz

    Fred Mertz Active Member

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    i know we have people all over the US, but as Jets fans most of us either live or came form the NY/NJ area, so that's what we're waiting on. I don't think we're gonna have any real feel for what's gonna happen up here until after Isaias makes landfall.
    Looks like tomorrow AM is when it's gonna start and luckily for me that's dead low tide. I'm not sure how long it's gonna hang around, but I'm hoping not a full 6 hours to get the storm surge going.
     
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  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey FM...great to see you....honest to god i was just going to come on and try to explain that.
    There is a similarity to Sandy in one regard. In fact its very common to tropical systems once they make landfall and travel north.
    Many ask...wait a minute...it should be much weaker up north!!
    Well while the wind will diminish...not as much as usual because of the speed...what saved florida ends up being a curse to the north.
    That front pushing through the midwest and heading to the coast helped steer the storm up the coast...good news...as is the reason for the huge increase in speed. Bad news is it also fuels the system..in a really big way. Tremendous amounts of rain will fall where the initial interaction occcurs. From VA to parts of Jersey. Amazing rainfall will occur in DC. In two bursts...the second butst will be pretty insane. Same up north. Once the eye gets within 50 miles of you...the rain north and west of the eye will be intense.
    All due to the interaction with a cold front.
    Sandy was similiar...which allowed places well inland to get clobbered.
    Hope that makes sense.
     
  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    And low tide will help you as will the speed. Blink of an eye...its gone. But a hell of a blink.
     
  11. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Started raining pretty good here about 30 mins ago. Track shifted just a bit to the east again. Picking up speed too. This hurricane is definetly drunk.
     
  12. Joe Willie White Shoes

    Joe Willie White Shoes Well-Known Member

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    Hey jaywayne12 - great to hear from you! So what do you think this path and speed mean for Morris County - the worst of both worlds? Rain and wind? No significant weakening as it travels over land from the Carolinas on up? I guess I should bring in the patio furniture and garage the cars even though I'm 40 miles inland. I expected rain with a little wind while it hugged the coast. Now the predicted rainfall amounts are dropping from 4-6 to 2-4 but wind is picking up from 20-25 to 45-50.
     
  13. Joe Willie White Shoes

    Joe Willie White Shoes Well-Known Member

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    I've been reading this Storm2k site and the consensus is that the high temperatures and humidity along the east coast plus the speed of the storm will allow to retain strength even as it moves inland.
     
  14. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    @FJF @jaywayne12

    Town called and asked us to be ready for possible water surge and asked us to check our sump pumps. How will this impact New Jersey? :)
     
  15. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Ok...first off hey jwws!
    Good to see you bud.
    Ok...I have had a break through. It took staring at radar on and off for 6 hours...watching future winds....and here's the key...future rain totals and I have figured it out ..at least my confusion
    Here's the break through ...the flooding is just to the left of the path....the high winds are just to the right of the path...makes little sense but that's it.
    Tropical wind high winds to the north will get less rain...high rain totals will get less wind .
    It's like two seperate storms...so check the path...if you are right of center more wind...left of center flooding rains.
    Not to say flooding rains will not get decent winds or visa versa...but no area will get highest winds and highest precip totals.
    I was looking at DC and wow... DC will need a boat,..but winds will not exceed 30.
    Now I know that doesn't answer each question.
    So let start with Morris county.
    I would be more concerned with winds. 2 to 3 inches of rain?
    But gusts close to 50. Maybe higher
    Check out the track. Take center of track...left of that. Heavy rain solid winds. Right of that solid rain but very Gusty winds
     
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  16. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Some storms just off our coast starting to show rotation. I expect the tornado warnings probably from 8-midnight.
     
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  17. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    And I just checked the radar here in Wilmington and we are less than an hour away from heavy winds and heavy rain...so hopefully phone sticks it out because we have above ground lives here and every bad tstorm we have lost power. So...maybe one hour left
     
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Great point. You here the buzz on TV or radio. Be ready. They will hit tonight
     
  19. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    First tornado warning ...looks like a touchdown near boiling springs 7 miles sw of me heading away ñw rapidly. Good news.
     
  20. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    As I typed that 2nd tornado warning possible just south sea breeze heading towards Leland. And now confirmed...heading just west of here by 5 miles
     

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