Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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  2. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah...charleston to sc nc border looks right.

    Right now up here...we will be in the NE section which is the worst....BUT...man...wind shear saved the day...with this track we will luck out....here is the wilmington threat from the NWS SITE:
    LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
    - Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 70 mph
    - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Monday evening until
    Tuesday afternoon

    THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
    UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
    to 73 mph
    - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
    previous assessment.
    - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
    storm force.
    - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
    should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
    significant wind damage.
    - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
    - Some damage to roofing and siding, along with damage to
    porches and awnings. A few buildings experiencing window,
    door, and garage door failures. Damage to vulnerable
    structures such as carports, sheds and mobile homes is
    possible.
    - Large limbs will be down with several trees snapped or
    uprooted. Several fences and roadway signs may become blown
    over. Some roads may become impassable due to large debris
    blocking the roadway, especially within urban or heavily
    wooded locations. Some bridges, causeways, and elevated
    roads may be impacted by high winds making driving on them
    hazardous.
    - Scattered power and communications outages are possible,
    but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
    - Small craft that are not properly moored may break loose.
     
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  3. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I can imagine after what you went through , the anxiety every time one of these things develope.

    I do flood restoration , not full houses anymore that I work solo. But the last 4 out of 5 years here each fall has been devastating. Some people just got done rebuilding , only to have it happen all over again.
     
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  4. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    I hope we don’t get the tornado out break we had last year here. 3 am all the alarms started going on the phones and TVs and it was nuts from then til 11am. I think we had 11.
     
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  5. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Ha, yep.... I wasnt even done rebuilding my house from Matthew, when Irma was coming. Turned my house into a concrete submarine for that one. One year living with my parents was enough ;)
     
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  6. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Yeah, that's your main concern. Luckily this storm shouldnt be a major event otherwise. Good luck
     
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  7. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Really hoping... Really hoping that the wind shear continues to knock this puppy down because to my eye it looks like it's actually beginning to form an eye. It just looks like it's a lot healthier the past hour really hoping I'm wrong.
     
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  8. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Yup, just went from trop warning to hurricane watch here. Getting better organized and strengthening a bit. Damnit
     
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  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not liking this bud.
    Many of the forecasts didn't make sense because if it had that much interaction with Florida it's like the models digested correctly the rain but not the wind? I don't know if that makes any sense but the bottom line is the models were going to struggle if no landfall was made... and now I'll be honest with you, I wouldn't be shocked if this thing got up to 85 miles an hour.
    Anyone living within 50 to 100 miles of the SC NC border? I'd be really really really watching this thing cuz I'm telling you ... I do not trust that this is just going to be a 65 mile-an-hour landfall. Hope I'm wrong
     
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  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    And when I say within 50 to 100 miles of the border of NC and SC ... I mean inland 2. Because come late Monday the forward speed is going to increase dramatically. That well offset land interaction with knocking this thing down quickly so even up to Raleigh and southern Virginia keep an eye out
     
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  11. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Ok...last thing before I will check later tonight.
    I'm a moron...a true amateur that enjoys tracking things so take this with a grain of salt....the nws has many more things at their disposal to see 24 hours in advance and I'm sure their reasons of lowering possibilities is valid
    With that said to my moron untrained eye...this thing is blowing up a bit...and it's failure to get beaten up by the coast of Florida....I just wonder if later tonight this is a bit more concern by the nws.
    Again...idiot here. But that current radar don't lie.
     
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  12. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Not a moron at all man. I agree, it’s been in water since it left the islands. Our local news is now saying “ don’t let the wording fool you”. Basically, there’s no difference between a high end trop storm and a cat 1 hurricane. Lol. They said that for Matthew too, and that back end wind was fierce.
    I hate when they come in at night. I have about 50 feet from my house , a green belt with a line of tall pine trees. I usually pack up the dogs and go spend the night at my parents house.
     
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  13. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    Jay you are awesome. Thanks brother!
     
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  14. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Another "moron" here.... but I kinda quit watching as it "fizzled" earlier as I did some work. Then a buddy called me and said the same thing. We'll see what happens. Sky here in St. Aug is eerily calm with some wild cloud bans just offshore
     
  15. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    and just like that... here comes a squall band....
     
  16. jilozzo

    jilozzo Well-Known Member

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    This is going to spell trouble for locations up and down the coast. Repeat of 2011 Irene. Full moon in effect. Hopefully this isn’t the appetizer for the main course in a few weeks.
     
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  17. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    The 11pm gives the track a 20 mile shift to the East.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    This year wouldn’t be complete without it
     
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  19. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    And just like that... hurricane warning issued for us 45 minutes ago.
    If it were not for the speed...which is predicted to grab this thing in the next 10 hours...I would be really concerned...this...again...models are as good as the info they are given.
    I'm really surprised the weather channel and locals were not discussing at nauseum the fact that this storm never hit...grazed ...came very close to the coast of Florida.
    Anyway...I'm sticking with this getting up to 85...and that sucks.
    Ok...will watch a ton during the day...gotta grab a good nap today because here...the true main event will be from 8 or 9 pm...until 3 am

    Rainfall amounts have been upped also by another 2 inches.
     
  20. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey Brook!
    Ty bud.
    You are too my friend
     
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