Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Hey guys...little long term item to keep an eye on...invest 92L.

Will be a tropical storm by wedesday night thursday.
Probable hurricane by Friday Saturday....slams the Virgin Islands albeit a high 1 low 2....and then the ? Come in to play.
From the two model runs i just checked....if...if the Dominican Republic is a direct hit or it skirts SOUTH of D.R...chances it falls apart and never gets its total act together are possible. The run that makes most sense to me is a brush on northern D.R. and then it sticks
All indications right now is that it will not be a high end hurricane down there.
Not until it sweeps past the islands and heads towards the southeast coast will that happen
While models show a max high end 2 or low end 3...i would take that with a grain of salt...as i would take the track currently depicted from this time forward (once it brushes or hits the D.R.) the same.
The models are in decent agreement that a week from tomorrow...the storm heads towards the SE coast before being lifted directly north and then NE out to sea.

Here is my problem with that scenario...its still 9 days out(it shows this close call with NC next Wednesday/Thursday) and the turn northward and then northeast does NOT occur until the storm is only about 200 to 300 miles off the coast....way too far out to put any confidence in that.
Now that also means that it can be further out to sea than modeled currently.
Middle of the road cat 2 at that time and again that means nothing this far out.
Any guarantees this far out? Well the east coast from Georgia to Cape Cod will have a rough ocean beginning next Tuesday to the south and continuing northward by Wednesday Thursday
NO MODEL SHOWS any crazy SANDY swings to the west...but there are a few models that want to run this very close to the coast ala a nor'Easter type path.
Very rare and doubt that type of run...these things either have some form of blocking that allows them to maintain direction and slam into the coast or they get picked up and ejected out to sea
Still Sandy taught us that there is a thread the needle thing...but again...there is NOTHING in the set up showing any potential for that
Will keep you updated and im sure some great people on this thread can chime in.

Oh...unless another beats it to the name....it will be called tropical storm....then hurricane Isaias.

 

Im reaching out to my bud right now...im sry i didnt do it when i saw this last time....i will get the man back home...at least here....reaching out now

 

I am not saying this to knock anyone on this site.
About ten years ago i got into a huge fight and used the tern internet balls...people who ...well...you get the point.
You cant have political threads anymore....those days are gone. Nobody will for the most part know how i feel politically today...and i like that
The days of having discussions are long gone.
So...on a jet website...to think it might generate more traffic is insane. The only thing to help that out is a better team...which is coming (even that statement opens me up to attack)
Its an attack culture...hell...its not even safe predicting a storm...lol.
CBG im sure lost his head...he speaks from the heart...its why i love the guy whatever he believes in.
He will be back one day perhaps...that day aint today...lol. Its a shitty culture that started more than a decade ago....from both sides

Its hit a new level now...and im sure the day will come when it infiltrates a decent thread like this.

Will keep you updated on the future hurricane Isaias