Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Moving too fast + COC taking too long to consolidate = heading towards gulf. :(
     
  2. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey SB!
    It could...the current track by the nws is a true middle ground. No model ..no true model shows their track...either east or west of Florida in fact..the current track modeled by the nws could never really become a force...it hits ever island mountain region...wouldn't survive.
    Two things I have seen that vary from where we were yesterday is one...it's taking it's time developing. It's really getting beaten up...and that will improve later today. It will get it's act together for further strengthening tonight
    Which leads to number 2. The most important....because of that all models are digesting crap...and a north Carolina...a Georgia...a Florida...hell a new Orleans...are all in play. No real clarity whether it goes gulf or east coast for 48 hours
    Where SB has a great point is the trends...it's been a HUGE swing from out to sea heading towards Greenland to hitting Tampa Bay in just 24 hours
    My gut from the high off the southeast coast that is currently retreating still thinks no gulf...but I can easily be way off
    Something to track and follow and where this country is right now...this is NOT a needed event. Will check the 5 pm updates and will post.
     
  3. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    I think it's moving too fast and not strong enough to get pulled poleward.... odds are playing pinball on the caribbean isles (hispaniola and cuba) will tear it apart..... I just hope theres enough NE wind fetch pointing at us for a day or two ;)
     
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  4. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    I spent my entire youth climbing every nook i could find in the Catskills and never saw a rattle snake.
     
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  5. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Could be...today is Wednesday?
    Gut feeling by this weekend it becomes a big story....now whether its justified or not...we will see.
    Really hope not here in Wilmington
     
  6. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    The track shifted quite a bit East since 11pm last night.
     
  7. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Way east...again...this has "the magnet" or out to sea written all over it.
    Skirting Florida (how many times has that happened with magnet set ups)
    The magnet is myrtle beach to the outer banks...the curvature of this landscape is a bullseye for tropical systems IF...IF...the make the turn north.
    Only a Sandy setup can allow a storm once it passes the outer banks to hit virginia to nyc.
    Long islands location remains a shot.
    But again...the damn magnet....SC/NC border to the outer banks....or out to sea with plenty of beach erosion from florida to cape cod is the best case scenario....qnd here in wilmington nc? Give me a break....but yeah...bad feeling even this far out.
    The damn magnet.
    And the strength? Cat 2 or 3....but THIS means not much this far out.
     
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  8. jilozzo

    jilozzo Well-Known Member

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    here we go.....renewing my meds today.
     
  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey J...good tomsee gou

    Here is my advise for future meds...be ready...invest 93l is on the heels on this...and that too will...will develop
    And...august after that stays busy
    Something will hit...too much in favor od future development fo next 3 weeks

    Good news with this one is that it will now fight to stay alive...now may get beaten by wind shere...early
     
  10. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Definitely. Almost looks Matthew-like in path


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  11. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    SHUT CHO MOUF! :mad::mad::mad:


    ;)
     
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  12. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Similar track.... but I dont think I'll be rebuilding my house this time... hopefully

    too much shear once it moves north. HOT gulf stream will juice up to cane status, but atmospheric conditions will prob limit it.

    was looking forward to a weekend of good surf.... but now it looks like hard onshores and rain.... I just want some cat 4 "FISH" storms like we used to get

    Terrapin IPA & Bulleit were on sale at Publix at least :)
     
  13. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Lol. Yeah, we weren’t supposed to get much out of that one. Then I sat there and watched tall pine trees snap out the back window.
     
  14. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Damn, didn’t know you went through that. Hopefully this one stays far away from you.
     
  15. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Incredible model agreement...especially the following
    What almost all models agree on..AND THIS will be what im following early:
    1. Wind shear will keep this amazingly consistent...it hits 75 mph so a legit cat 1...maxs out at 80...before wind shear brings it back to 75...all the way tonthe coast of Maine??!
    2. The recently favorable trend of getting within 150 miles of florida coast...before its scoped up north.
    3. The magnet....eliminating as has been the recent trend of all hurricanes ..georgia and southern s.c. from a direct hit.
    4. A direct hit anywhere from carolina beach to the outer banks.
    5. The most fascinating thing to me...crosses the outer banks regardless of whether it makes landfall or not to the south...and then out to sea right? Wrong...it takes a classic noreaster track...i mean dead on classic...this is a track to follow in the winter if you want a good ole fashion snow storm.
    THEN...it stays within 50 to150 miles of the coast all te way to Maine....and amazingly....remains at 65 to 75 Mph....that is a bit rare.
    7. Although no direct hit up north...beaches will be closed and major beach erosion will occur towards the northwest of the eye...
    8.Because of this current track....long island can not be ruled out with a direct hit...especially eastern LI.

    Not a monster...and come Saturday night the speed will increase big time....so in and out.

    Will check later
     
  16. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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  17. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Oh yeah.... almost 15" of water in the house (single story)....
     
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    One quick update....may reach cat 2 before the Bahamas..but backk down to 1 thereafter
     
  19. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    yes that's what the 3 champ faces were for.... :mad::mad::mad:
     
  20. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    For those on the east coast...promise this is the last thing....all the way thru OCTOBER...this could be among record breaking hurricanes formed to take a path from southern florida up north.
    The long term is screaming for this track....and africa looks like it will be spitting out one of these potentials every week.

    Its a real shitty set up and favors at least one or two of these to do some real damage....looks like a record breaking year for tropical systems...and the loser is the east coast
     

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