Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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  2. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    We’re feeling it up here too. But unlike you we’ll be below 90vbefore the week is out
     
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  3. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, well be cooking here til end of sept. I moved here for everything but the weather. I always loved fall and winter.
     
  4. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Not a very nice afternoon.


    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    :oops::eek:
    Ouch. Where is this place.:eek:
     
  6. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    That’s Myrtle beach. Typical summer afternoon. 3 house fires, and one person struck
     
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  7. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey guys...little long term item to keep an eye on...invest 92L.

    Will be a tropical storm by wedesday night thursday.
    Probable hurricane by Friday Saturday....slams the Virgin Islands albeit a high 1 low 2....and then the ? Come in to play.
    From the two model runs i just checked....if...if the Dominican Republic is a direct hit or it skirts SOUTH of D.R...chances it falls apart and never gets its total act together are possible. The run that makes most sense to me is a brush on northern D.R. and then it sticks
    All indications right now is that it will not be a high end hurricane down there.
    Not until it sweeps past the islands and heads towards the southeast coast will that happen
    While models show a max high end 2 or low end 3...i would take that with a grain of salt...as i would take the track currently depicted from this time forward (once it brushes or hits the D.R.) the same.
    The models are in decent agreement that a week from tomorrow...the storm heads towards the SE coast before being lifted directly north and then NE out to sea.

    Here is my problem with that scenario...its still 9 days out(it shows this close call with NC next Wednesday/Thursday) and the turn northward and then northeast does NOT occur until the storm is only about 200 to 300 miles off the coast....way too far out to put any confidence in that.
    Now that also means that it can be further out to sea than modeled currently.
    Middle of the road cat 2 at that time and again that means nothing this far out.
    Any guarantees this far out? Well the east coast from Georgia to Cape Cod will have a rough ocean beginning next Tuesday to the south and continuing northward by Wednesday Thursday
    NO MODEL SHOWS any crazy SANDY swings to the west...but there are a few models that want to run this very close to the coast ala a nor'Easter type path.
    Very rare and doubt that type of run...these things either have some form of blocking that allows them to maintain direction and slam into the coast or they get picked up and ejected out to sea
    Still Sandy taught us that there is a thread the needle thing...but again...there is NOTHING in the set up showing any potential for that
    Will keep you updated and im sure some great people on this thread can chime in.

    Oh...unless another beats it to the name....it will be called tropical storm....then hurricane Isaias.
     
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  8. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    Thanks jay. Looking forward to your further updates. Our dear friend CBG is staying away from the board due to politics. Can you tell him to come back? :)
     
  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Im reaching out to my bud right now...im sry i didnt do it when i saw this last time....i will get the man back home...at least here....reaching out now
     
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  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    I am not saying this to knock anyone on this site.
    About ten years ago i got into a huge fight and used the tern internet balls...people who ...well...you get the point.
    You cant have political threads anymore....those days are gone. Nobody will for the most part know how i feel politically today...and i like that
    The days of having discussions are long gone.
    So...on a jet website...to think it might generate more traffic is insane. The only thing to help that out is a better team...which is coming (even that statement opens me up to attack)
    Its an attack culture...hell...its not even safe predicting a storm...lol.
    CBG im sure lost his head...he speaks from the heart...its why i love the guy whatever he believes in.
    He will be back one day perhaps...that day aint today...lol. Its a shitty culture that started more than a decade ago....from both sides

    Its hit a new level now...and im sure the day will come when it infiltrates a decent thread like this.

    Will keep you updated on the future hurricane Isaias
     
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  11. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Hey man. I hadn’t been on here in a long time, glad to see you’re still posting here.

    Please no hurricanes for sc. but a light tropical storm would be nice to cool it off for a day or 2.
     
  12. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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  13. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey type!
    Good to see you
    Man oh man....Wilmington NC here...i mean...i have never seen anything like this. Never. Its just impossible to be outside for a long time....have been to beach 3 times in past 10 days but even there...by 11 am...insane
    Will keep you updated.
     
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  14. jetophile

    jetophile Bruce Coslet's Daughter

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    Well, hellllloooo @jaywayne12! I hope all is well with you! I don't have any Central Air in my matchbox of a house, and it was sweltering today! I only have an AC in the bedroom and my Studio (which keeps me in there), but as active as I am, sometimes I just flat out can't handle the blazing heat. I detest the Summer and the sun, ugggghhh. I usually hike regardless, but today I said frig it and ran up and down both flights of stairs (basement to top floor) for a half hour until my legs screamed instead of going outside.

    I was sweating so much it was running in my eyes and making my eyes burn. I've been taking care of my next door neighbor's cat and his pool because he's been away the last few days and I cannon-balled in as soon as I was done, running clothes and all, haha.
     
  15. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Lol...hey jeto! Great to see you kiddo
    The heck with the cat but congrats on the pool!
    They say up north you guys get a break starting tomorrow...front comes through then stalls here...so we get on and off thunderstorms with heat still
    Great to see you jeto
     
  16. jetophile

    jetophile Bruce Coslet's Daughter

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    Hi! I think we're supposed to be getting some T-Storms, too; which of course means the second I take one step in the woods the sky is going to split open, lol. Saw a big rattlesnake (6 footer) about a week ago so a lot of good my snake kit is doing me sitting in my glove compartment. o_O

    Speaking of which, @FJF I picked up a pair of these last month: Crackshot Snake Gaiters.

    [​IMG]



    I like 'em pretty good so far. I had a great pair of LaCrosse Snake Boots with a great hard heel, but they sprung a leak after a year and I was so disappointed. I don't know, I find that their quality has gone down, so I tried Cabela's brand, and was disappointed in those for a different reason: the heel is soft like a work boot boot heel. :/
     
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  17. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    It’s crazy man. The actual temp isn’t even that high. But the feel like is terrible. First year I moved here we had 4 consecutive days with actual temp over 100, and it didn’t bother me as much.
     
  18. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Well right now they are showing that storm tracking right through Florida. Fun times ahead
     
  19. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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  20. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Nice job wb...huge change from yestetdays models right?
    It is looking very likely for an east coast hit...although im not really leaning at florida.
    High pressure off the coast looks to retreat a bit...which might allow it to swing more north.
    The magnet setup which just seems like a fit here of sc to the outer banks of nc looks like the favorite...but its early.

    A few models want to bring this into the gulf....again...8 days out possibly 9.
    S
    Keep an eye out guys

    Now...here is a bonus...was checking winter long term setups....
    A La Nina setup....below average precip to the south from southern ca to south carolina.
    Above average from northern pacific states to delaware.
    Great lakes area way above average...
    Below average temps off the eastern seaboard...again...great lakes areas
    What does this mean...not that much...but if you go by this...chicago area 200 miles east or west....heavy snow.
    Nyc metro? Could be snowy...but this set up is usually more rain and ice....snow changing to rain....but these setups usually do give the northeast several bombs...just not overall snowy winter.
    Great skiing vermont and new Hampshire
    But overall...central us gets clobbered.
     
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