still time but as of now chance of showers CBjay = LMFAO + ps take a look FJ at long long range past next Tuesday it shows a chance,,,just a chance this far out on or around Dec 23rd,,,its there as of now
Maybe we get a nuisance snow tomorrow ? Its not a BIG thing but it " could " be a lite mess for us , we shall see. As for Next Monday / Tuesday its still there needs to be watched. As for Dec 23rd thereabouts there is still a possibility needs to be watched and as fas as Regans question about the game Saturday here is what it appears you will be saying as of now =
I just hope NJ is better prepared just in case. Remember that "little mess" we got about a month ago that had all of NJ/NY in a giant gridlock. I don't want another 5 hour commute home on what is supposed to be a 30 minute ride. Tomorrow probably won't be much but NJ better not take any chances.
Greg this won't be THAT and I don't know about your area but SINCE that ridiculous nite I have noticed that they have treated the roads in my area a few times and we were not even getting anything it was more a precaution for frost or whatever. None of them will be caught with their pants down again at least we like to think they won't ?
I can't imagine we will have to deal with anything like that again as both NJ/NY should be better prepared. My area is Bergen County NJ. I live in Fair Lawn but work in Ramsey. That is about a 30 minute commute on a normal day.
Am I the only one that feels like as the years have gone by, the quality of weather forecasting has remained stagnant or even taken a step backwards? Just take a flip through various news and weather outlets and you’ll find anywhere from nothing to 39 feet of snow predicted for tomorrow. Obviously a slight exaggeration but c’mon, it’s 2018...they should be able to give us the exact count of individual snowflakes that are going to fall from the sky
Harris ,many of them follow the same damn models and rarely deviate from them . Jay posted about that from time to time how they " were scared to be wrong " because its their Job . I dunno about the exact count of snow flakes but IMO its not an exact science and although it has come a long way its still a lot of guesstimating in there with the science = that said I hope it snows on Brooks house !
Okay. Calling all weather authorities. @FJF @CBG @jaywayne12 Need to know what the weather looks like for below dates. Dec 22nd Saturday: this is our annual visit to Manhattan with my boys. We spend entire Saturday in the city walking shopping eating and catching a show. Then crushing at a hotel. I hope it is sunny and above 40 degrees? Does it look possible? Dec 23rd: Packers are in town. Want to catch the game. Cold is OK. But no rain please. Possible? December 24th 8:00 pm: Flying to Barcelona with family. Any snow storm? December 31st: coming back from Barcelona . Any snow storm?
There is an inherent limitation of weather forecasting that in principle will never be overcome, and that is that weather systems are chaotic, with very small changes in initial conditions resulting in very large changes in the outcome. That means that even slightly incorrect measurements of the current state can lead to great errors in prediction even if the model is correct. It isn't, of course (no model is), and with current technology it's impossible to measure all of the details of an active weather system, which means it's pretty much impossible to forecast things very accurately. To combat this they run the models many times with different initial conditions and then report averages and probabilities, but the ranges covered by those probabilities can be very wide. Predictions are far better than they used to be because of satellite imagery, but without a vast technological breakthrough in monitoring quality it's going to be very difficult to get much better than it is now.
Stat Jeff nice job explaining,,,,,,,and as far as the models go ,you hear a guy like Bernie Rayno say this all the time "the models are just tools " and its up to the peeps reading them to interpret what they see or think will happen. Some of these weather people on TV were doing the traffic or other things and have no clue as to all the science involved in all this stuff
Wow = look at me up there with the head liners ! Im not worthy -----> All I can tell you Brook is what I wrote previously and that is that around Dec 23rd give or take a day there is and has been something on the models and FYI it could be snow. PS keep your eyes on this coming Monday as its looks interesting
I will keep an eye now that you are talking about a potential December 23rd storm. We shall see but I hope it doesn't happen/ I hope it comes on December 25th
Brook there is a lot of time between now and then lots can happen including NOTHING-----the long range models have not been very accurate lately so you have that going for you
Monday could be Rain - Ice - or Snow depending on where you are located, its still there lets see what the next few runs say
Hey ToooDDD it's raaaaaainiiiing: The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has expanded the * Flood Watch to include portions of northeast Florida and northern Florida, including the following areas, in northeast Florida, Coastal Flagler, Coastal St. Johns, Inland Flagler, Inland St. Johns, and Putnam. In north central Florida, Marion County. * Through late tonight * Widespread rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected through late tonight with local amounts of 6 to 8 inches possible. Ponding on roadways and flooding is possible as heavy rainbands move across the area. I better get to the beer store asap
Edit here = Sunday / Monday " STILL " looks interesting,,,,needs to be watched,,it keeps trending colder.
Some models have been showing it for days,,,,Nam has showed it and some of the numbers have been on the high side but the Nam cannot always be trusted but sometimes it sniffs something out. When other guidance begins to support it then I think its time to at least take notice. The FV3 that did ok with the sneaky snowstorm that paralyzed us and it is now supporting the Nam. Still time but I said days ago we needed to keep an eye on this. FJ and others thoughts ? Ps here is the latest from the FV3 ----> Snow Whisperer out = https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018121506&fh=54
I am pretty shocked that this storm is not being talked about more,,,,,,,models are showing a real good hit of snow for well North n West but it is also close to hitting many others. Could the models be correct and the peeps doing the predictions be wrong ? It happened on November 15th ,,,,,,,hmmmmmm
