Jay, We can't afford to lose you. Please reconsider and get out of there. Don't take any chances and don't leave us to @FJF hands come winter time.
Help me out guys what am I looking at here,,,,,,,no definite location for landfall yet ????? Looks like Wilmington ( I think thats Jays Neighborhood but could be wrong about that let me know Jayster ) gets destroyed, does it stall there and is Florence really headed towards SC after hanging out and making landfall in NC ? I even saw one model that has it around the SC / Georgia border after arriving at NC . The High to the North has not weakened in fact it looks even stronger to me so this thing will not head North but where will it head after making landfall ?
That's exactly what the models are saying - landfall somewhere between Cedar Island, NC and St. Helena Island, SC, and then it heads west, even getting as far as Tennessee or Kentucky before finally turning north.
Not likely to get much coverage in usa https://edition-m.cnn.com/2018/09/1...-intl/index.html?r=https://www.google.com.au/
Well good luck to anyone who makes a living being a weatherman. Days ago I was wondering if the high to the North could weaken and this thing "might" head North and I was dead wrong as the High only got stronger and will only allow Florence to go so far North then push her into the coast but DID ANYONE SEE THIS COMING ???? It appears that she hits NC but then heads South to Georgia ! Did anyone see this coming or better yet actually happening ???? thoughts ???
Be safe dude.... not sure about your elevation, but it looks like that area would be prone to surge flooding due to all the salt marsh creeks... especially if the storm comes ashore a little south. The worst flooded areas here werent on the ocean, but near the ICW / Marsh Hopefully you have a 2 story house in case it floods, but seal that bitch up tight! if it looks its gonna bad, you can spray foam your last door shut from the inside to minmize water intrusion. Hopefully you have impact windows, if not go board that thing up Good Luck
Apparently the high over Bermuda, which steered it west but would now steer it north, is predicted to weaken, while the high centered over St. Louis is predicted to strengthen and drift to the northeast. That would force the storm to first stall, and then drift south and west. This storm is a wonderful example of how (1) hurricanes move completely at the whim of the upper air highs and lows, and (2) we still don't really understand why those highs and lows do what they do more than a day or two out.
will be updating in a few hours. I know this isn't the smartest thing in the world to do. We have the cape fear river about a half mile away. You guys know I live for this stuff and its not the smartest thing to do...but we are pretty far from the beach. Several miles from Wrightsville beach. To experience over 100 mph winds and 2 feet of water isn't smart...but 2 story home....we will be ok. Will check maps this afternoon and update anything I see here....thanks guys
Here is the NWS for our area of Wilmington: This Afternoon Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. North wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 86. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday Night Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. Friday Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 85. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. Friday Night Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. Saturday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 86. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers. Low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Tropical storm conditions possible. Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 50%. As you can see from that...the STALL and barely no movement is the worst part
and the discussion from our National Weather Service...pretty bad: As of 430 PM Tuesday...Hazard additions include `Flash Flood Watch` across SE NC and NE SC Thursday through Saturday, with Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings maintained, as well as a Tropical Storm Watch over interior NE SC. This is shaping up to be a very dangerous scenario, as Florence nears our coast and stalls, unprecedented, and life-threatening flooding may unfold. As a Cat-4 system, ocean overwash across the barrier islands is becoming more likely, associated with storm surge, and right now forecast to inundate between 7-11 feet along the Pender/New Hanover beaches, north of the center of Florence initially. If the slow SW drift of Florence pans out, this to bring very dangerous conditions to the NE South Carolina coast as well, late Friday into Saturday. Isolated tornadoes will become a threat Thursday along the NC coast, as helicity associated with the rain/shower bands of Florence`s NW quadrant begin to impinge the SE NC coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday...The main change this period, to increase POP values as the effects of Florence linger over the area this weekend, with a gradual lessening of wind and rain as the remnants of Florence rotate away from the local area. It is this period that significant river flooding will begin to emerge from potentially enormous rainfall run-off. Any residents along rivers should make plans now to leave, due to the potential of fast and potentially big river rises. This is becoming more to be a dangerous weekend across the area and preparations should be underway right now.
Jay be smart about this , you don't need me or anyone else to tell you what to do but this aint a snowstorm we are talking about here. A 2 story house or not the storm surge will be ridiculous and getting thru the storm is one thing getting thru the aftermath is another,,, no electric and damage everywhere ( hopefully no where near you or family or pooch ) and water all over the freaking place ,,,,,,as others have said ,if it was me I would seal up the place best I could and lock it up and get out of dodge,,,hell I like the mouse maybe a few days with the family at Disney to take my mind off things . Keep us posted,,,,be safe and " one of these years answer your effing phone " lol
lol....I just saw missed call...left phone back during vaca. Phone is now on. I hear what you are saying and we are beginning to talk about it now. The last model runs destroy Wilmington....will update you. Truthfully...huge amounts of people staying....tough call.
Meanwhile, at the same time Florence hits the Carolinas Tropical Storm Isaac will hit the Lesser Antilles, with some places expected to get 8" of rain. That might not sound so bad in a comparative sense, but Dominica is directly in its path, and it was only a year ago that the island was totally devastated by Hurricane Maria, a Category 5 storm when it hit the island.
D R is farther West then Dominica but not too far,,,,,,,,but Dominica would be hit first and soon as it is in Isaacs path as of now,,,,,,,,in other news to quote THE CLASH You staying or going Jay ?
