Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    I would think that is a yes. Now...being on the border of the rain snow line? Do they roll the dice and go with school? My guess is they will wait as long as they can and close. Right now that area is on the border...and the border means nothing. That area could still get clobbered.
     
  2. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    and the NWS is officially all in for the following areas. No shocker there

    FROM THE NWS:
    Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-
    Rockland-Northern Westchester-
    342 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018

    ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
    4 AM EST THURSDAY...

    * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16
    inches with localized amounts up to 18 inches are expected.

    * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
    York.

    * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 AM EST Thursday. The heaviest
    snow is expected in the afternoon when snowfall rates of 1 to 2
    inches per hour are possible.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
    impossible, including during the evening commute on Wednesday.
    Travel will also be difficult during the morning commute. Be
    prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
    Power outages due to heavy snow weighing down trees or their
    limbs will be possible.
     
  3. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    AND how they break it down time wise:

    Tonight
    Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 32. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
    Wednesday
    Snow. High near 35. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
    Wednesday Night
    Snow, mainly before 10pm. Low around 30. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Northwest wind 10 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
    Thursday
    A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 2pm, then a slight chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. West wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
    Thursday Night
    A slight chance of rain showers before 8pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
     
    Brook! likes this.
  4. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    THIS IS FOR FM:
    And to show how ballsy of a prediction this is for them...and how on the border....officially right now they are going with this:
    QUEENS, NY
    Tonight
    Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 35. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Southeast wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
    Wednesday
    Snow before 1pm, then rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet. High near 37. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
    Wednesday Night
    Rain and snow likely, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 10pm, then gradually ending. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

    Because of potential....think they close because if the other scenario happens, what a nightmare getting the kids home....think they close.
     
    Fred Mertz and Brook! like this.
  5. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    May not ever see a cutoff like this but this map gives you an idea how severe the cutoff will be from 1" to maybe closer to 20".

    This is why you have to be insane to go out on a limb and say where this cutoff will be but one thing is for sure...it will be there somewhere. Every model suggests that. They just differ where. I really do believe as you get closer to the coast...especially for CT...the numbers are underdone by the models because I'm just not buying this on the coast track.

    Here is the RGEM...take the numbers seriously but not written in stone...not posting it for numbers...but for cutoffs..check out CT, L.I and Central Jersey...it goes from 1 inch to 20 in about 10 to 20 miles.

    RGEM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2018030618/rgem_asnow_neus_49.png
     
    Cman68, xxedge72x and Brook! like this.
  6. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    27,721
    Likes Received:
    31,387
    Schools in Dutchess are canceling already. Much to my girls’ joy
     
    Brook! likes this.
  7. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Brook! and FJF like this.
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Closings should start piling up over the next 3 hours. Great for them...the good ole days...nothing better.
     
  9. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    27,721
    Likes Received:
    31,387
    You know jay, I am not sure they get the same joy we got back in our day when we would have to wake up and listen and finally hear your school on the radio being announced closed.
    Now an alert on my phone tells me and I either tell them or not bother waking them up. Doesn’t feel the same.
     
    Brook! likes this.
  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    A great radar depecting the two players. One beginning to get its act together aloing the NC coast...and one diving into the Midwest that will pour gasoline on the coastal...and boom.

    RADAR: https://i.imgur.com/ziLR4O8.gif
     
    FJF and Brook! like this.
  11. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Wow...never looked at it like that..how true. Hey...for me? It used to be a fire siren that would go off at 6am. The whole house would be silent and then it would go off for the whole town.

    One time it didn't go off and I called the school to bitch at them...I was 9. Should have realized then that this weather thing would be a problem for those around me.
     
    FJF and Brook! like this.
  12. Cman68

    Cman68 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    37,118
    Likes Received:
    30,879
    I love to see Godzilla Snow Blowers! Yours is by far the biggest one I've seen in quite some time. Anything bigger and you might as well get a front loader! :) Have fun man. I highly doubt you're gonna see any issues tomorrow.. 34" Blower! U Go Boy! :)
     
    dawinner127 likes this.
  13. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2008
    Messages:
    7,120
    Likes Received:
    4,964
    great day to start getting sick,,,,wake up coughing,,,go out with a buddy to the casino,,,,feel like crap donate some money and came home with fever n chills and slept a bunch of hours,,,,,,,so where we at I gotta read these posts and look and see what I'm missing
     
    Brook! likes this.
  14. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2008
    Messages:
    7,120
    Likes Received:
    4,964
    BTW ,,,I almost cried reading this compliment ,,,,lololol,,,thanks Jayster ps back to my chills
     
    Brook!, jaywayne12 and FJF like this.
  15. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    27,721
    Likes Received:
    31,387
    Good day to be sick. You won’t be going anywhere or doing anything tomorrow anyway.
    Feel better
     
    CBG likes this.
  16. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2008
    Messages:
    7,120
    Likes Received:
    4,964
    thanks bro
     
  17. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    and as you can see below, this puppy really gets cranking up north...incredible numbers:

    .WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO
    7 PM EST THURSDAY...

    * WHAT... Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18
    inches, with localized amounts up to 24 inches in the Berkshires
    and Green Mountains, are expected.


    * WHERE...Southern Vermont, northwestern Connecticut, western
    Massachusetts, and Washington County and the Taconics of eastern
    New York.


    * WHEN...From 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions,
    including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Snowfall
    rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible Wednesday afternoon
    into early Wednesday night. Northerly winds gusting to 30 mph

    Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night may result in
    isolated power outages. Be prepared for significant reductions
    in visibility at times.
     
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
  19. Greenday4537

    Greenday4537 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2011
    Messages:
    5,755
    Likes Received:
    3,216
    0-1" of snow for me. Gonna be a doozy.
     
  20. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505

Share This Page