Stays low? When’s the last time the airens had a workout? You need a good storm c. Ocean ain’t opening again any time soon anyway
Sure as hell looking that way right now. Finally got water temps up into the lower 40's. Oh well, April will get here at some point.
Let me say its just great to see all these peeps posting in this thread , I can't tell u how tired I get writing all those usual posts , and Im sure Fjay is enjoying the company----that said is it out of line if I start talking about next Mondays possible storm ? lol yep its there,,,first things first
that a boy FM...this is a classic miller b (which many of you remember how much I hate these). The reason this one is more of a sure bet compared to those I despise trying to predict is the transfer location. Many Miller B storms (a storm that cuts through the Midwest and throws its energy to a new main storm off the coast) lately, throw their energy off the Delaware coast or NJ coast. This storm is throwing its energy to my backyard...off of Hatteras...N.C. which allows little wiggle room to escape the wrath from NJ. ON north. Tough call for the coast....really tough. Here is the latest NAM...and you can see so many locations in the over a foot of snow from Central Jersey on north...but check out the cutoff line through L.I. and South Jersey. Who would want to forecast that. Its pretty simple..if you changeover...knock the numbers in half...even if and when it goes back to snow. Now some may just mix with sleet or rain for an hour or so...those number shouldn't dent it..but some will switch over for several hours. NAM: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=350959
I always type fast and go back and correct all my mistakes...Major ADD here...its fixed John boy!! You are near or in Newtown right Jon? Hmmm..very tough call. Again...no changeover to rain and you get buried.
RGEM MODEL: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=350961 I'm beginning to smell a consensus.
RGEM model and the 3k NAM model want to give NYC about a foot of snow in less than 6 hours. Now I cant jump on that yet...but one thing I do buy after reviewing all the models...whether its NYC...NNJ....or even parts of L.I and CT...someone is going to get a foot of snow in a 6 hour period... and more after that.
Yes..it can. There is a warm boundary just off the coast during most of this storm..and the question is does the track get close enough to the coast to pull that in. If it does..and areas east of I95 especially, you could see drastically lower numbers because of mix issues. Now, that being said...just like the last storm major dynamics are in play. These types of storm generate enough cold air to overcome those boundaries. Last thing for tonight...and not necessarily your area jon.....but really studying qpf outputs....there will be areas that flirt with 2 feet of snow. Early guess is parts of NNJ and Southern NY State.
And with this last item I'm walking out of here tonight because many will want to kill me. What could also keep numbers a bit lower is the type of snow...good news is it will be a very wet snow so numbers might be slightly lower. Here is where I run out...bad news is that backs will be broken trying to get this stuff up.....very wet snow.
where u running off to caped crusader ? lol THANKS FOR THE CAMEO u are truly missed , ps lots of good info there
bad storm coming wet heavy snow, wind not as intense or strong as the other day but lots of snow for lots of people,,,more trees down for sure and more outages,,,,,,the only thing that looks certain is a foot or more North n West ,,,,the city is looking at 6-12,,,,,thoughts ?
This is such a tough call. Its not a matter of where the storm will miss but where the rain snow line is. Would not surprise if FOR EXAMPLE a town in Long Island gets slush...and then 30 or so miles west gets a foot. That's how tough this is to call. Really tough call....but still sticking with some areas getting 18 to 24...the system is that amped once it gets up here and on north. You are dead on sir...the wind will play less havoc with this storm but sometimes that's not a great thing. Less wind will allow trees wires etc to get caught up in piling heavy wet snow on them...so..again...power might be a problem. Get this snow up as it comes down...I cant imagine and try not to remember shoveling over a foot of wet snow..makes my skin crawl.
The EURO except for extreme Eastern L.I. is saying what rain snow line! I'm not sure I'm buying this wide of a swath of over a foot though. I mean, its tough with this track to keep everyone snow...perhaps the strength wins out over the track? Perhaps....anyway....I present early this mornings EURO run: EURO: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=351000 EDIT: After rechecking the EURO numbers...I like its optimism but I'm not buying how NNJ gets huge numbers only to fall back again in Southern NY State and CT. Not at all...those numbers in NNJ..IF THEY COME TO PASS...will remain the same through the areas mentioned.
One last thing for a bit. All the maps you see with snow are 10:1 ratio. 1" of rain equals 10" of snow. Again...that may happen but may struggle because it would not surprise me to see 8 or even 7:1 ratios...that's how wet this snow will be. Lower ratios could keep accums down a bit.
