Just a massive storm...has all the ingridents for an across the weather spectrum event. Flooding..check Tropical storm winds: check Hurricane force wind gusts: check Heavy snowfall: check Flooding: check Major and I mean major beach erosion: check Blizzard conditions: check Rain storm and then snow storm: check The dreaded stall word: check The only worse word than stall is the term RETROGRADE: check One word that has not come into play and it shows the true dynamics of all or nothing is "sleet". While some may experience it...it gives you a clue to the bombing out that its all or nothing. While the temps will be within the borderline 32 degrees for the entire storm..that word should be in there along with freezing rain...yet its not mentioned...yet. Gut feeling is that dynamics always beat models or conventional wisdom...and if dynamics wins...more snow for all.
Latest NAM run...here is the reason this whole storm will be a nowcasting situation..check out that sliver of lower snow totals through central jersey and then out of nowhere, higher amounts along the central/southern coast of N.J. That will NOT happen. The models of choice will be the high end resolution extremely short term ones that give you 8 to 12 hours in advance. LINK: Take it with a grain of salt...but you get the idea for potential. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018030118/036/snku_acc.us_ne.png
F that. This is the last time. House is big enough for the kids to grow up in and small enough to not be a burden when they leave. March 8 I am suppose to be in Troy for some classes for work. I don’t like to miss traveling on the company dime
I know the area well,,have friends there, that are complaining about their neighbor , some middle eastern guy that was harassing their daughter who works at Mickey Deees,,,,,
Ugh, have Internet and tv install tomorrow and uhaul on Saturday. If there was ever a time to get a bust this would be it. Don’t look good though. What a mess
Brook this is truly a NOWCAST ,,,,,no-one knows whats going to happen. This is a different animal than usual, and Bernie Rayno who isa weather god and almost as good as the Jayster lol said this is the hardest system he has ever had to predict,,thats saying a lot ,,,ps good luck with the move Fjay
Good point with the nowcast...heres the truth. Been following weather since I was 7 years old...57 now...and for the first time I can say I truly have no idea how this will play out for one major good reason. And here it is...this system truly does not have a cold source...I mean..its in the 40s and 50s right now. There is no cold source for this storm..and surely not a great enough one for the month of March. So how does this all happen? How with no cold source can you even mention the S word in the month of March...that would be snow cbg. I have talked about it for 3 days now...so lets be clear on this one guys because this is some really interesting stuff thats about to happen. Dynamics is the word of the day. They should just name this storm dynamics. It comes into play in ALL huge storms but this one is the bread winner. Its the true cold air provider. All temps in the upper atmosphere are cold...but it takes a monster storm bombing out in near record pressure to take that upper air and bring it to the ground like this one will. Its also ONE of the reasons the wind will be a HUGE player. Its all dynamics...there is no huge Canadian air mass bringing in winter cold...the storm is currently in two parts with the upper low traveling through Pittsburgh which puts NNJ/NY on the east side...which is why temps are still mild...but when that puppy throws its power to the coastal storm in the Atlantic tomorrow...winds will switch to the NE. When that happens...all hell will break lose and just watch the radar as the snow line drops from PA/UPSTATE NY...to the coast. How fast that happens is where the nowcast comes in. Not much more to it than that.
Just looked at the 12 and 24 hour wind speeds....this thing with no tropical characteristics will be a tropical storm with a fake nose and glasses. I mean...power outages galore will be another huge story. Some places will come close to 90 mph gusts...and many will have over 70 gusts.
Good job bud...you will really learn a lot about dynamics with this storm. Here is a simple way to look at this. If this storm did everything the same...same track...same cold to the north...same transfer...everything the same...but was just a pretty strong storm...only a few would have snow in their forecast...well north and west. Any snow that falls for anyone in NJ/Lower upstate NY...central CT and to the coast...NYC...L.I. wouldn't even get a flurry..it would be a rainstorm. Any snow that falls is the strength. Here is another heads up now that I think about it...during the heaviest precip...that's when you will eventually see more snow than rain come Friday afternoon and night..anytime that precip lightens up a bit...or a bit of a break in the heavy precip..it will mix or be rain. Dynamics...heavy precip brings cold air to the ground. Also brings wind aloft down.
I should just wait and type everything at once..lol..just saw another fascinating feature...blocking...this storm will have nowhere to go once it hits the coast and will meander out there for about 12 to 18 hours before it gets picked up and scoots out to sea. Duration is one thing with that obs...but unfortunately , beach erosion will be a major player...west and northwest of the center of the storm. Not good for NJ to Cape Cod. EDIT: Looking at it more closely, the center will be off the Jersey coast...so while Cape May possibly will get little beach erosion...or lets say less...areas from LBI north will get pounded. Hope that makes sense.
and for shits and giggles...one last post for now. Whoever gets snow? You better have a CMAN type snowblower or a great chiropractor...because this stuff will be HEAVY HEAVY. I mean...heavy. Heavy snow with temps in the low to mid 30s is back breaking snow. Top that off with wet grounds before the changeover....wow.
Went to bed and it was 45 degrees,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,now it is 42 degrees,,,,,,,if we are going to see snow and I still think many of us are going to, then still a ways to go as far as temp dropping,I would think that the temp would have to at least get down to 36 or lower for us to start seeing snow here.Maybe Im mistaken and if it precepts hard enough and its even 38 or so that we could still see dynamic cooling and upper levels cool enough that we could start seeing snow ? I expect pressure and temps will drop quickly once as you said Jay that transfer of power happens,,,,very informative stuff Jayster ,,,time will tell how this plays out keep em coming ------>ps hang in there Fjay
quick update,,,I was reading my weather station temp from last nite, was NOT 42,,current 35 and dropping,,,,ps snow has begun here and its coming down!!!
Roads are covered and look messy . About an inch or 2 all ready down. Wish I could have enjoyed this one
Sorry @FJF . Yours is a trypical case of Murphy. If it will make you feel any better weather has always been an issue on my important days. They day I got engaged there was a rain storm. The day I got married there was a rain storm. The day I closed on my existing home there was a rain storm. The day I took my new borns to home from hospital there was rain storm. I know for a fact the day they will bury me there will be a rain storm. I made peace with it already. You do the same. Now, what does Madison look like sir?
