euro gfs in agreement right now, keeping it off shore. monster storm though, if it was to hit it would shut the area down for a day or 2. just wasn't enough spacing between the 2 systems to get this up here and not out to sea. maybe next week
Fjay,,,big freaking storm,,,,,too soon to call looks like it "trends " came west all day on SOME MODELS but the few that MIGHT count keep it off shore,,,,,,come on storm Jay Wayne , Fjay and CBG want to see some snow !!!
Greenday for anyone to give amounts yet to me is just NUTS as no one not me, Jaywayne, Fjay, you lonnie quinn or the NWS knows what is gonna happen right now
I'm not sure about all the science involved but some weather geeks are saying that what was supposed to kick this system OTS is not gonna happen and that it might ride the coast,,,,thoughts ?
damn system trying to make a liar out of me, 18z gfs brought it west, puts the shore, long island gettng snow. every run is big now.
it can, not sure on the amounts yet.lot's can change, big time potential though. the late nite models will be telling. isn't @jaywayne12 flying into the area this week? thursday is going to be rough snow or no snow. hope he gets in ok?
Projections if anyone is actually stupid enough to make them should remain the same,,,,again NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN the models are all over the place and there is so much science involved with this one,,,,,curious to see what the models say later on and tomorrow,,or if Jay or Fjay or anyone else wants to chime in,,,,,its a huge storm and very very close right Fjay but the damn thing could miss us ---->IF U love snow that is
Looks like AS OF RIGHT NOW the coast is barely in play,,,this storm is a bomb but it might miss all of us including NE......really need some serious developments overnight or tomorrow or it appears you were originally right about this Fjay,,,,,it might get kicked east and OTS---oh fudge !
To quote the famous harry Doyle, “Just a bit outside” Pretty good agreement that this thing just brushes the coast. Gives jersey shore,nyc,Long Island a few inches of wind blown snow. Still time for this thing to wobble west but I don’t think the big storm hits anywhere south of Maine.
really needs a close watch. Wouldn't be surprised if areas within i95 get more than expected. Wow...talk about a close call. I fly in Friday FJF. Believe it or not, we have a winter storm watch for down here in Wilmington, N.C. Brushes the coast here pretty hard. Wednesday/night. My flight should be fine but have been told that 3 or 4 inches closes down this town for a few days. Add to that it got down to 15 degrees last night.... Anyway...keep an eye on the NAM model from here on...once a throwaway model...its been solid inside 48 hours. The National Weather Forecast has thrown it away and not using it for this storm...not a smart move. This will over perform but perhaps not much inland.
Oh man jay. Friday we should be experiencing wind chill factors around -20. Welcome back to the northeast
It's interesting how much my two weather sources differ. Weather Channel says only a couple inches still. Accuweather has upped their projections to 4-8 inches from 3-6 inches. Accu is usually more accurate with snow storm totals. Hoping not this time. Bringing my laptop from work home Wednesday just in case. Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk
NAM model running now...hold on to your horses for entire coast....mama sita. Precip field is very confined...but winds...and precip along coast? Very impressive.
Ok..long story short. You guys all know about the "benchmark" . Where the perfect storm track runs over the 40/70 mark off the coast of N.J. Without boring the crap out of you....its perfect for several reasons. It pulls the needed cold air into the area (counter clockwise rotation of the storm) and more importantly with this storm, the NW quadrant of a storm is where much of the precip falls heavily. Very important with this storm. Now the NAM just had a run where it basically went west and crossed over the 40/70 mark..but not much precip in the NW quadrant. Why? This storm has everything you need for a huge snowstorm for the metro area except that missing question...and I'm sure much of it has to do with its almost due north track. Remember...this storm formed in the Bahamas...not in the GULF. Not sure of all the answers but from the beginning...this was some type of HYBRID subtropical system....and its not playing by the rules of a noreaster. OR...the models aren't picking it up because of that....OR could be right...not sure yet.
