Never one to downplay systems...mother nature can pull some serious stuff...but keep in mind the GFS has had storms like this, many storms like this, and had crazy low pressures only to even out closer to the event. Yesterday it had a reading of 879 during the trip. Now, even if its off by 30-50mb, its still a Cat 5 or close. Looking closely to see if the GFS maintains these unheard of readings.
Jay if this hits Cuba and scrapes or hits the D.R and or Puerto Rico it will weaken but after Cuba will it have enough time to regroup and strengthen again ? Hitting this Islands would be horrible for them but better news for the coast no ? Again best case scenario is this goes due North and OTS RIGHT NOW but that aint happening .
I figured they were giving absolute worst case scenario, be interesting what it looks like by Wednesday though, get an better idea what is going to happen. I know from what you guys have been saying the Euro is a little better so watching that and hoping it kicks out east rather than more westward movement. I have my kids spread out from Orlando, Lakeland, Bradenton and Pinellas, so just trying to figure out the best plan if it does come up the middle or even worse case up the west coast.
this is one of the few times that I can remember that the islands will not do much to this. They will prevent growth but not take the life out of it. Beast mode. All models agree that when it passes the islands it strengthens. Im watching the islands as a guide to more south or north....doubt it will do much if anything to this one.
Hey..you are correct...GFS running now and its even STRONGER..lower pressure. Its tough to buy into something when its never happened...but thats what records are for sir. If the current path holds up over the next 48 hours Florida will quickly turn into panic...and it should. I would have a game plan that is 24 hours ahead of everyone else sir.
12z GFS direct hit for the southern tip of Florida and now heading due north. Latest pressures are still around the same...so no correction there...WB..anyone in Florida should get a game plan going forward. Run is still going on but there seems to be some agreement today.
bizarre run....clips south florida and does a quick turn back out over the EAST coast of Florida..back over water and is running the coast...beware GA to NC.....still running.
at hour 168...which would be exactly a week from right now...its back in the Atlantic and heading towards either GA/SC/ or me..NC coast.
2nd landfall at 1130 pm Monday night on the border of GA/SC....well..its models not real..lets see where it goes from there.
That's the problem with this storm, right now it looks like nowhere to go but north to get out of it's way. It will take about 45 minutes to pack the car up, just need to wait to decide where.
Youngest daughter goes to USF and also interning at elementary school so she has her shelter, her boyfriend also coaches the football team at the HS so they really have a choice of shelter, oldest will be working Emer. Mgmt. so she's covered, son is in Orlando in block home but also only a mile from UCF where he goes to school, middle daughter will go to her grandmothers and they are right next to the school she used to work so should be going there. Basically all family covered except me and the wife, we'll be ready to take off if need be. Have a lot of friends down in SE Fla that I usually invite to stay with me when a storm coming in but don't think it will work out like that this time.
it phases with a front over PA/WV and just wrecks havoc all over the place. Usually...here..if we are talking about the Jets or a snowstorm I would give you an lol...I mean it is just model runs...still...I can even digest the last few runs..they are off the charts.
If I were you....lets see what the next 24 hours holds. I mean...I just really struggle with some of these paths. Lets see if it begins to shift more up the east coast. Will know that by morning.
Am I seeing that after Irma passes they show the low pressure system that's behind it looping around, picking up strength and hitting NE Fla? I know that's 2 weeks away so it could go anywhere but I just thought that would be a real kick in the ass if it did do that.
that my friend would be the eventual hurricane JOSE...which the GFS says makes landfall around here and then rides the coast....holy crap.
yeah, thats cat 4 Jose coming to the party but I A thought building a wall was supposed to stop Joses
