Names and years Labor Day hurricane 1935 the Keys Camile 1969 Mississippi Andrew 1992 Eleuthura Florida And thats it. There have been about 14 to hit including Cuba Dominic Republic and the Bahamas etc. Hugo was a Cat 5 but hit the Virgin Islands and South Carolina as a 4. There have been a total of around 25 storms to hit CAT 5 levels during their travels...the last one was Mathew which made landfall in Haiti/Cuba as a CAT 4 and brushed us here in Wilmington around 30 miles off the coast in 2016 which was incredible to see. Another shocking thing I just saw is that there have only been 2 Cat 4 hurricanes to hit the US. Hugo in 1989 and Carla hitting Texas in 1961...so my thinking is way off. Much more rare and you are correct sir. Very rare. It has been 25 years (Andrew) since the U.S. has had a CAT 5 OR CAT 4 hit the U.S.A. Amazing stat.
Interesting link about storms of the past: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes and if you read this carefully you will see how hard it really is to hit as a CAT 5. In the first block they list storms that have hit CAT 5 levels...now check out next to it the "duration" meaning how long they stayed at that level and its amazing that for the most part, its less than a day. Which is good news. Although several stayed stronger for several days...maintaining that power is not easy.
well jay this irma is gonna blow someone off the map...... i don't like the EC solution as we haver had enough with irene and sandy. current forecast tracks remind me of gloria in 85.
Hey J! Hmm....good one. Thats a real nice comparison. Many of the same differences in models too. About 3 days ago when the models were all over the place I mentioned that the middle ground was around the NC/SC border. If you take the GFS and EURO and kind of middle it now its a bit north. Problem is that the GFS has been all over the place so squaring that with any other model makes no sense. If not Monday...by Tuesday...we will get an idea and narrow down what now seems to be anywhere between GA and Long Island. The one thing I would take off the table if I had any guts is OUT TO SEA...but....no guts.
Yep...actually beginning a bit of a southwest movement that could last for a day or so before evening out...and heading NW. One thing to mention as far as timing..have mentioned around the 12th several times....now if the GFS would be able to pull off a coup, move that up around 18 to 24 hours.
Thanks for the info Jay,,and yeah I know that some have hit Cat 5 status in the past but that was not what they were when they hit the states,,,,,its crazy that things have to go perfectly or should I say BAD/wrong for that to happen.
Charlie hit Florida as a Cat 4, I remember that one because I had just rented a house on the water just north of Tampa where they were expecting it to hit. I figured let me head a bit south and inland to my daughters house in Lakeland. Of course as soon as we head there it makes a right turn, makes landfall near Captiva Island and heads NE right to us in Lakeland.
Yeah...folks are getting a little antsy here and history allows them that. If you look at wilmington...Wrightsville beach which is 3 miles from me....down to southport...it's a part of NC that sticks out and opens up and has a bad history of many glances and hits (Floyd and Bertha come to mind) It's just a magnet the way the coastline is here. Ever since I started following this one have had a bad feeling about it down here. Hey...N.J. is in about the same play as down here. Tough call...but not a good vibe with where the models turn this up north to them adjusting to more of a northwest to north trend I think may happen. Hope I'm wrong Regardless models DO agree that wherever landfall is....the track almost goes due north which is a bad case scenario for the entire coast NC on north
LOTS OF TIME yet,,,,,this could still go wide right or hit anywhere on the coast,,,,,,better idea by Wednesday. But it is fun watching the models spit out all these scenarios
That's what I always loved the most. Models. One of them will be right...it's make believe but cool. Plenty of time.
Current trend I'm following has the storm turning into a Cat 4 but going just north of the Caribbean islands so they'll get fringe. Hopefully that holds true and spares everyone down there.
And still a coast brush ....Florida in play. Will check but believe first flight recons are tomorrow and that will help model input BIG TIME. This eventual northern track regardless where it hits is worrisome because rivers run of course north to south pretty much. Flooding...but that's for another day. Not liking the new agreement. Still PLENTY of time The thing that has caught my eye today is that regardless of impact...irma stays strong inland and this will be states not state.
Cbg...I remember when we used to track winter storms and the one thing we liked to see (for snow lovers) was model consistency. What we don't want now is that. GFS comes out in half hour and would like to see it do something different. Leave the out to sea option open.
Our only problem was with those past few winters we would get model agreement and snow lovers would get shafted anyways , and the damn thing would not phase or go out to sea anyways ,,lol. The GFS and Euro both in agreement last nite not good but time,,,,on the road post results if you can
