great obs SB...its dropping very fast...the eye is clear and its ahead of schedule. The ole theory that it develops and peaks faster...it lessens over time is true. BUT..and its a huge but...the due north jog is the key..and when the maps begin to show that is the key. The next 24 hours will clear up many things...and leave some things to clear up. Really believe by Sunday, everyone will have a clear idea if the southeast is safe...even the midatlantic. Peaking storm? I wouldnt put too much into that with the potential of this thing. Parts of the Caribbean will take months if not years to recover from this thing.
I have checked out a few sites and maps and what Stinky put up was informative,,,so basically if I understand this correctly is that once Mathew hits Jamaica which its close to now and the Bahamas , then it must be looked at to see how much it has weakened. Most geeks say it makes the turn North tomorrow nite,,,,The Euro and GFS do not agree at all rite now, Euro has it out to sea GFS says ides the coast ( as of now this is what they say, am I wrong weather geeks ? ) also other models have started to jump on board with the GFS ,,,hmmmmm
many more models show a more GFS solution than a EURO solution. Im almost ignoring the EURO until I see the something lean that way. As far as the strength and weakness and this guiding direction? I dont buy that theory at all. This is all about steering. Period. The latest Hurricane prediction center has now said it will go from major...to cat 2 or 3 and reform back into major off the Georgia, SC coast. My gut feeling is that the GFS should be worshiped and followed closely...and that all other models will cave to either a SC/NC landfall....or brush...with then a very possible Long Island landfall. Things will have to change pretty dramatically to make this do a EURO. I cant believe i just typed that...and how things have changed in 2 years. The EURO is truly clueless. I also dont buy the strength having anything at all to do with where this ends up. Could be wrong....and Im way out of practice CBG!
Just looked at SBs video too...and that does a very good job of explaining the trough....the problem with troughs are...they are ever changing...live and in color. They cant be trusted for accuracy more then 48 hours out and even then. They build...they dissipate...they rebuild. Its THAT and the upper level low (ULL) which will suck this closer to the coast and not do a EURO...how close? Nobody knows.
Jay man if the GFS continues to phase this thing at the benchmark there will be a lot of unhappy folks on long island. I'll be one of them. Unreal stuff.
geeks are saying latest guidance says out to sea,,,,,I have no clue,,,I realize we will know more as time passes but no one knows the path yet ,,,insight appreciated
Hey jil jil! Yeah...latest models are bringing it towards euro model....hopefully that sticks. I just have a feeling east coast should stay on this for another 72 hours. Too many players and not a thread the needle type storm. Really close call the last gfs run...VERY CLOSE CALL. Will see the next 48 hours.
My brother and his wife just closed on their first house in Island Park across from the water luckilily it's trending East after getting closer to FL....... BUT looking at satellite and pressures, I wouldnt be surprised if this thing goes to cat FIVE again.... Plus there's another X-factor in play, that will make predictability even LESS:
wow, just getting back in after watching my girl race bmx in a mudfest. things are getting interesting huh? stay on it stink and this storm is already great because it may jay log back in
im in and out FJF...and STINK...keep up the great work. About the crazy EURO...not only did it shift west....but it has a Florida landfall...before zipping back out up the coast. REALLY needs to be watched closely.
its pretty amazing what has happened with these models. If it were a winter storm...it would be no such a big deal. The way the east coast is landscaped...you have Florida up through GA...SC then NC...and after that it would take a Sandy type thing of a left hook to hit the coast again. Cant be ruled out. The only thing that, at this point, can be said with 100 percent confidence is that the Caribbean will get beat up bad...and the east coast from Florida to Cape Cod will suffer beach erosion and in most cases...pretty severe beach erosion. What makes that even tougher to swallow is that doing that to the coast before the normal runs of Noreasters is not a good setup for the coast. Not at all.
12z gfs hates the Carolinas and not kind to long island and new England either. you surfing this @stinkyB ?
yep...its beginning to lock in. For the record...Im in Carolina Beach. What justice huh? No snowstorm and will probably have to evacuate. Question is this...do I? I mean...well...lets see this week. That run shows officially 3 land falls...S/C N/C border...10 miles south of me. Then Cape Cod...then Nova Scotia. Tons of rain for the NYC metro....over 6 inches..some areas over 10. Down here over a foot. All locations are sending ballons every 6 hours...and that started yesterday. Thats why we are beginning to lock into a solution. Not a good one.
be safe jay,but if you do not evacuate,video video video. this might be historic. hey @CBG imagine what 12" of rain would look like in snow form, dare to dream! lol
