Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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  2. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    I have been visiting NY for the last few weeks and will be heading back to Florida on Tuesday. Hoping Matthew turns north sooner rather than later. Looks like it goes along until right under Florida and then makes a sharp right coming right at us.

    Any chance this plods along and then turns north up the west side of Florida?
     
  3. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Still several options on table but pretty comfortable that entrance into the gulf of Mexico or gulf side of Florida is extremely minimal.

    Anything east of there....and that includes riding up the coast but well off the coast are on the table. Gulf of Mexico and western Florida are safe....as of today
     
  4. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    Welcome back Jay. Missed you a lot. Since you were gone, I protested the board and left as well. Now that you are back, I can be back as well I guess.

    Now this Matthew stuff. When shall I alert my close friends about potential Sandy type of disaster? Too soon?
     
  5. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, my wife is home alone so that will make her feel better.
     
  6. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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  7. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    what a difference between the gfs and the euro. gfs has this thing in canada by next weekend while the euro still has it down around the bahamas.

    gfs has been money so far this summer
     
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey brook! Yes...too early. Just put out there to keep an eye out for end of next week.

    Fjf. Amazing. Several years ago that euro was king and this would be a no brainer. The euro speed makes no sense to me at all. Not until the eye gets north of NC does it begin to slow down. Right now it's booking due west. It's all about that turn north. It's going to happen...and Cuba will be the answer. If it tracks over eastern cuba...the storm grazes the coast...and barely. Central....a coastal nightmare. Western...hold your hats SC or nc and still the entire east coast. Then does it stall and turn west back towards the mid atlantic? Many questions
     
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  9. Cman69

    Cman69 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

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    Yeah Jay, we mistook him for a Kurdish rebel... Oh wait... :)
     
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  10. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    based on that sattelitte, I'd say he's being sheared a bit.... could delay strengthening, thus possibly delay the N turn.
     
  11. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Hey Stinky , where are you located ,,,abouts ? That said F JAY has told me a bunch of times where he is yet I always forget ,,lol
     
  12. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    officially a week away. Will try to post this evening but have at this one boys.

    A week away...and if the GFS is correct....landfall would be within 20 miles from me in NC. THEN...it rides...or crawls up the coast to give the entire east coast way to much rain to handle. WAY TOO MUCH. Top that off with some very strong winds. Unlike snowstorms...not rooting for this.

    Mother nature rarely lets storms go from almost direct south to north for a reason. The flooding and beach erosion would target NC to Maine.

    NOW..WAY OFF and plenty of time to change. Keep me updated with any model runs tonight FJF and others. Should be interesting week of tracking.
     
  13. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    just looked at the EURO...if the EURO and the GFS are correct....the Caribbeans will take a ton of time to recover. Wow. Ok...thats it for today...will try to get back on tonight.
     
  14. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    LOTS CAN HAPPEN IN A WEEK,,,,,,,I read other weather blogs and sites,,,weather geeks are saying the stronger the storm the sharper the turn north anyone have insight on this ? I never heard that before but a few guys are saying thats what Mathew will do ,,,,,?
     
  15. Satan

    Satan Well-Known Member

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  16. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    NE Florida. About a half mile between the beach and the ICW / marsh
    1. The initial motion is 265/12. There is little change to the track

      forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A low- to

      mid-level ridge to the north of Matthew should keep it moving

      westward or south of westward for the next 36 hours with some

      decrease in forward speed. From 48-120 hours, the ridge is

      forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level

      trough moves into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This

      evolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward and then

      northward. There is a significant spread in where the turn will

      occur and how fast Matthew will move afterwards. The ECMWF and

      UKMET are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and slower

      than the other models, while the GFS and Canadian models are to the

      left of the center of the guidance envelope and much faster. The

      various consensus models split these differences in both track and

      speed, and the new forecast track lies close to them. Overall, the

      new track is a little south of the previous track through 48 hours

      and a little west of the previous track from 72-120 hours.



      The intensity forecast is very problematic. The ongoing shear has

      so far done little to keep Matthew from intensifying. Despite

      this, the intensity guidance is in unanimous agreement that the

      cyclone should weaken from 12-48 hours, most likely due to shear.

      From 48-96 hours, the shear is expected to diminish, and during that

      time Matthew is expected to intensify until it interacts with land.

      The intensity forecast will smooth through what could be some ups

      and Downs in intensity. First, it assumes that the current

      strengthening will continue for another 12-24 hours, with Matthew

      reaching major hurricane strength. Then, it keeps the intensity at

      100 kt from 24-48 hours, followed by some intensification as the

      shear lets up. Weakening due to land interaction is forecast after

      72 hours. The intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the

      intensity guidance, but it is less intense than the HWRF model from

      72-120 hours.





      Forecast positions and Max winds



      Init 30/0900z 14.0n 69.9w 85 kt 100 mph

      12h 30/1800z 13.8n 71.2w 95 kt 110 mph

      24h 01/0600z 13.7n 72.5w 100 kt 115 mph

      36h 01/1800z 13.9n 73.7w 100 kt 115 mph

      48h 02/0600z 14.5n 74.8w 100 kt 115 mph

      72h 03/0600z 17.0n 76.0w 105 kt 120 mph

      96h 04/0600z 20.5n 76.0w 90 kt 105 mph...inland

      120h 05/0600z 24.5n 76.0w 85 kt 100 mph...over water
     
  17. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    WOW,,those are some strong winds,,,,keep em coming guys,,less than a week away
     
  18. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    I changed my mind, trying to sell my house and my insurance payoff would be more than I can sell it for. Maybe it will come up the side of Florida it's not forecast to and take my house with it.

    I kid, wouldn't wish that on everyone else in my area, last time we had a major storm some areas were without power for weeks not to mention the flood damage from the surge.
     
  19. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    latest models have it doing a SANDY but towards Maine....the track now takes it offshore with closest landfall around NC. Then turns NE...until it gets past Conn..well off the coast...and gets sucked in by major ULL players up north...for a landfall in Maine.

    Why is this important? Because it gets sucked in. Landfall at this stage is taken with a grain of salt. The bottom line is that this thing doesnt want to just go out to sea like 90% of storms that take the path and turn NE. It just doesnt. SOOO....keep an eye out.

    And for the record? I have no idea what will happen because so much is determined by the speed. The Euro has this thing off the NC coast by next weekend...and the GFS has it off the same coast 2 days earlier....huh? Quite the disparity. Believe the EURO is caving to the GFS AGAIN.

    Bottom line is that this will be a CAT 4 Hurricane by this weekend.....needs to be watched. CAT 5 cant be ruled out.
     
  20. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    Look at that radar and air pressure.... it may cat 4 by the next update o_O
     

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