I have been visiting NY for the last few weeks and will be heading back to Florida on Tuesday. Hoping Matthew turns north sooner rather than later. Looks like it goes along until right under Florida and then makes a sharp right coming right at us. Any chance this plods along and then turns north up the west side of Florida?
Still several options on table but pretty comfortable that entrance into the gulf of Mexico or gulf side of Florida is extremely minimal. Anything east of there....and that includes riding up the coast but well off the coast are on the table. Gulf of Mexico and western Florida are safe....as of today
Welcome back Jay. Missed you a lot. Since you were gone, I protested the board and left as well. Now that you are back, I can be back as well I guess. Now this Matthew stuff. When shall I alert my close friends about potential Sandy type of disaster? Too soon?
what a difference between the gfs and the euro. gfs has this thing in canada by next weekend while the euro still has it down around the bahamas. gfs has been money so far this summer
Hey brook! Yes...too early. Just put out there to keep an eye out for end of next week. Fjf. Amazing. Several years ago that euro was king and this would be a no brainer. The euro speed makes no sense to me at all. Not until the eye gets north of NC does it begin to slow down. Right now it's booking due west. It's all about that turn north. It's going to happen...and Cuba will be the answer. If it tracks over eastern cuba...the storm grazes the coast...and barely. Central....a coastal nightmare. Western...hold your hats SC or nc and still the entire east coast. Then does it stall and turn west back towards the mid atlantic? Many questions
based on that sattelitte, I'd say he's being sheared a bit.... could delay strengthening, thus possibly delay the N turn.
Hey Stinky , where are you located ,,,abouts ? That said F JAY has told me a bunch of times where he is yet I always forget ,,lol
officially a week away. Will try to post this evening but have at this one boys. A week away...and if the GFS is correct....landfall would be within 20 miles from me in NC. THEN...it rides...or crawls up the coast to give the entire east coast way to much rain to handle. WAY TOO MUCH. Top that off with some very strong winds. Unlike snowstorms...not rooting for this. Mother nature rarely lets storms go from almost direct south to north for a reason. The flooding and beach erosion would target NC to Maine. NOW..WAY OFF and plenty of time to change. Keep me updated with any model runs tonight FJF and others. Should be interesting week of tracking.
just looked at the EURO...if the EURO and the GFS are correct....the Caribbeans will take a ton of time to recover. Wow. Ok...thats it for today...will try to get back on tonight.
LOTS CAN HAPPEN IN A WEEK,,,,,,,I read other weather blogs and sites,,,weather geeks are saying the stronger the storm the sharper the turn north anyone have insight on this ? I never heard that before but a few guys are saying thats what Mathew will do ,,,,,?
A massive storm in south australia http://www.theage.com.au/environmen...day-after-power-blackout-20160929-grrv2f.html
NE Florida. About a half mile between the beach and the ICW / marsh The initial motion is 265/12. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Matthew should keep it moving westward or south of westward for the next 36 hours with some decrease in forward speed. From 48-120 hours, the ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward and then northward. There is a significant spread in where the turn will occur and how fast Matthew will move afterwards. The ECMWF and UKMET are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and slower than the other models, while the GFS and Canadian models are to the left of the center of the guidance envelope and much faster. The various consensus models split these differences in both track and speed, and the new forecast track lies close to them. Overall, the new track is a little south of the previous track through 48 hours and a little west of the previous track from 72-120 hours. The intensity forecast is very problematic. The ongoing shear has so far done little to keep Matthew from intensifying. Despite this, the intensity guidance is in unanimous agreement that the cyclone should weaken from 12-48 hours, most likely due to shear. From 48-96 hours, the shear is expected to diminish, and during that time Matthew is expected to intensify until it interacts with land. The intensity forecast will smooth through what could be some ups and Downs in intensity. First, it assumes that the current strengthening will continue for another 12-24 hours, with Matthew reaching major hurricane strength. Then, it keeps the intensity at 100 kt from 24-48 hours, followed by some intensification as the shear lets up. Weakening due to land interaction is forecast after 72 hours. The intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance, but it is less intense than the HWRF model from 72-120 hours. Forecast positions and Max winds Init 30/0900z 14.0n 69.9w 85 kt 100 mph 12h 30/1800z 13.8n 71.2w 95 kt 110 mph 24h 01/0600z 13.7n 72.5w 100 kt 115 mph 36h 01/1800z 13.9n 73.7w 100 kt 115 mph 48h 02/0600z 14.5n 74.8w 100 kt 115 mph 72h 03/0600z 17.0n 76.0w 105 kt 120 mph 96h 04/0600z 20.5n 76.0w 90 kt 105 mph...inland 120h 05/0600z 24.5n 76.0w 85 kt 100 mph...over water
I changed my mind, trying to sell my house and my insurance payoff would be more than I can sell it for. Maybe it will come up the side of Florida it's not forecast to and take my house with it. I kid, wouldn't wish that on everyone else in my area, last time we had a major storm some areas were without power for weeks not to mention the flood damage from the surge.
latest models have it doing a SANDY but towards Maine....the track now takes it offshore with closest landfall around NC. Then turns NE...until it gets past Conn..well off the coast...and gets sucked in by major ULL players up north...for a landfall in Maine. Why is this important? Because it gets sucked in. Landfall at this stage is taken with a grain of salt. The bottom line is that this thing doesnt want to just go out to sea like 90% of storms that take the path and turn NE. It just doesnt. SOOO....keep an eye out. And for the record? I have no idea what will happen because so much is determined by the speed. The Euro has this thing off the NC coast by next weekend...and the GFS has it off the same coast 2 days earlier....huh? Quite the disparity. Believe the EURO is caving to the GFS AGAIN. Bottom line is that this will be a CAT 4 Hurricane by this weekend.....needs to be watched. CAT 5 cant be ruled out.