good news...lets see if the models continue eastern trend. I mean REALLY good news for those north of south jersey. FM might be right. If the EURO scores a win...rain amounts will be cut in half...AT LEAST. Steering winds all show this heading to like VA and then turning northeast out to sea. Problem is tropical systems give the finger to steering winds some of the time. All the spaghetti models took a huge turn northEAST in the latest print outs. If that stays the course...NC/VA/MD get flooded...NJ on north get less. LINK OF SPAGHETTI MODELS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png
Agreed to a point FM. The surge was from a system moving in a northwest way. Yes..the damages along the coast were from the surge. I was mainly talking about the whole entire system. I, 40 miles inland, had no power for 2 weeks and ended up with a 70 foot pine tree through my living room. Millions were affected by the winds. Millions were affected with no gas...generators. Was talking about total picture...but you are totally correct for those along the shore. See your point totally.
A little help,,,,I looked at that link and to me it appears to hug the coast but still head this way,,,,,isn't that a bad thing ? Coming inland would weaken it while staying along the coast or off shore would feed it or am I missing something with cool water and all in the ocean ? A little help weather geeks
I saw a huge trough powered by low pressure moving up the coast that if Joaquin runs into will grab her and run it up the coast towards NY/NJ. There's a system to the NE of the storm that's keeping it in place and were that not there, Joaquin would probably already be on it's merry way toward the East Coast. That being said, that system seems to be holding it in place, crushing the Bahamas. Jay can we take any lessons learned from the winter Euro models and how they blew away the GFS time and time again? Or are tropical and winter storms too different to tie together their forecasting? If it stays South, it seems the Euro will be correct and out to see it goes.
Thanks Jay. Only flooding issue is if I lose power and the sump pump doesn't run. Otherwise, I'm usually ok. I had no flooding with Irene because the power stayed on.
Great points FM...especially the EURO/GFS comparison. Heres my thinking...I trust no model with tropical systems. Thats why I dont even like saying the more coastal/northeast turn is written in stone. Euro has actually moved closer to the coast. The thinking with the NWS is tonites models will bring them together. The only lesson I would ever suggest with tropical systems is this....unless there is 90 percent agreement on all the models, stay tune. Sandy? There was 100 percent agreement about 4 days out. Many people that follow weather were lauded for their success with that storm..including me. That was nice but nonsense when it got close....the models nailed it..not the weather people. EDIT: And you are totally correct FM...the trough will tell the story..the entire story. Where that trough speeds up..slows down will not be read correctly by the models until tonight.
cant seem to find the NOAA cone map that has the animated gif of all the forecasts by release time http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/180011.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents Jay do you have a link?
Here's the latest wobble to the SW. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-vis-long.html Jay this thing can't cross 75W can it? I just read that Not 1 model that curves east passes 75W, at most rides along north tomorrow, but that is it.
ok I figured out the wind probability loop: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1 shtml/180011.shtml?hwindloop? But I can't seem to find the previous cone loop, like this one: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
Here's a nice his res image of the storm. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/.../20151001.2030.GOES13.vis.11L.JOAQUIN.ATL.png
Welp, damn South Jersey. Hopefully we get less rain the originally predicted. My area floods after one good day of rain. Is it safe to say tomorrow will not be a good golf day?
We're going to get a lot of rain, both from this Nor'Easter and later from what will probably be Tropical Storm Joaquin, but it's looking less and less likely that it will make landfall. *****That being said, it's still too early to tell. 24 hours will tell the story.*****
what a difference 24 hrs makes. yesterday the whole weekend was going to be a wash. now i have a 50/50 chance of showers on saturday. i like it
huge shift in NWS model which takes all the models and goes with their own for forecasting. Amazing swing...but some models did show out to sea. When NJ/NY came out with the emergency stuff...I get it...better to be prudent. Still, some many factors showed a very possible more east track. Hey...I looked at it and thought the same way...but who the f are my. Cape Cod landfall or bust. Not even Nova Scotia if you go by the latest models. I will be in Wilmington, NC for this one...and we are scheduled to get over 7 inches of rain no matter what the track.
i took the euro a couple of days ago. no reason other than it was the good one in the winter. looking now, i am just west enough where i should be relatively dry this weekend. now if the wind will lay down a few mph that would be perfect. the coast is in for a drenching, i had the option of going to georgia for bmx racing this weekend. glad i didn't make that commitment
