Hey, Jay, how's this for long-range forecasting? http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to 'mini ice age' levels: Sun driven by double dynamo Date: July 9, 2015 Source: Royal Astronomical Society (RAS) Summary: A new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645. A new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645. Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno. It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun's activity varies over a cycle lasting around 10 to 12 years. But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes to date have fully explained fluctuations. Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy. "We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun's interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%," said Zharkova. Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called 'principal component analysis' of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched. Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity. "In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other -- peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a 'Maunder minimum'," said Zharkova. "Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago."
Hiker..please do not shoot me...I...DONT...BELIEVE...IT...FOR..ONE...SECOND. I read an article similar to this several decades? ago. This has been an ongoing debate and supposedly we now have a formula/system to predict when the bottom wave and top wave will not interact. Now..Im not debating that for a second. What I would gladly be VERY weary of is the calls for mini-ice age. The single example of the river Thames freezing over during a stretch from 1645 until 1715? There is so much data left out like..how were summers? In the 50s? Did England receive over 10 feet of snow any of those years. Of course here in the ole USA there was no USA back then. Could you see winters where temps are lets say 10 degrees below normal...which is a ton...I guess..but these articles? Im tired of them.
Weird rotation of north to south..and spotty to say the least. Expect this to fill in but here is a local radar..just keep refreshing sir: http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar?play=1
Well it appears where I live in Taiwan is on a collision course with strongest storm of the year anywhere in the world. They are saying it will intensify to about 185 MPH winds before weakening right before it hits Taiwan sometime on Friday. Fortunately most of the 23 million people that call Taiwan home (including me) live on the East side of the island which is protected from getting directly hit by Pacific storms thanks to some pretty high mountains but they'll only drop the winds to roughly 120 mph when it gets to me. I've never experienced anything like this so I'm actually kind of excited but also nervous. The Ryukyu Islands small islands in Japan will be next after the storm hit Saipan, they are supposedly really nice islands but they are also a point of contention between China and Japan. They are saying Fuzhou in Mainland China will also get hit and it will reach Shanghai as well but by then it will be pretty weak. Just a few months ago I went through my first real earthquake a 6.4 that hit us in April and it appears I will experience my first super storm by the end of the week.
No where to run , oh I meant to say I live West on the island. Taipei is north central but pretty much protected by the mountains to the East. If I lived in Milan I'd be really nervous as it's a direct path. Sadly this beautiful place could get demolished; Ishigaki in Japan
Well the good news is Soudelor is now downgraded to a Category 4 but the bad news is they are expecting it to strengthen again before it hits sometime in the next 2-3 days. They are predicting up to 20 inches of rain in the mountains (fortunately far from me) but 5-10 inches in the city. Reports are also saying we are still probably going to be getting wind speeds anywhere from 110-135 MPH in Taipei which is no fucking joke. From what I understand (although I don't quite understand it) there is a low pressure system sitting over Japan which is forcing this storm south (it's track apparently went south as opposed to the NW they had expected) which now means the eye could pass directly over us in Taipei. Guess I'll have to hunker down with some Suntory Whisky , some beers and instant noodles as I am not expecting anything to be open from Thursday night until Saturday night.
Seems like it is expected to hit sometime Friday night into Saturday morning, what worries me is I work in the country on Friday nights so I don't want to get stuck out there. If it gets bad they may stop running the buses and I'll be about 20 miles from home in the sticks. The good news is the airport is really close by so I could try and head there but I'd prefer to not spend the next 17 hours in the airport with no open restaurants or food. I am hoping that they cancel classes tomorrow and Saturday and I can just hang with some beers at home and watch movies. The good news is it has weakened again this time down to a very strong category 2 but they are expecting it to go back up as it gets closer to the island to a category 3 or possibly 4. They are still saying 20+ inches of rain in the mountains which is going to be absolutely insane as it will absolutely lead to mudslides and about 5-10 in the city which will be a sight to see. Still anticipating over 100 mph winds and they are saying the eye could pass right over me in Taipei. Apparently since 1958 only 4 typhoons have ever had the eye pass within 50KM of Taipei so this would certainly be an unprecedented event.
Well the news here is saying it will be a category 4 when it hits although the American media seems to be reporting it to be a Category 3. There is also been some change in the track. The eye is now expected to pass over a city called Hsinchu which is about 25 -30 miles south of me which now puts me in the area north west of the eye but fortunately the water is on the other side of me however I'm expecting some serious fucking winds. The bad news is that a city called Haulien which is a very pretty city nestled between the mountains and the Pacific (on the other side of the island) is in the danger zone. They will be subject to some serious wind damage and some serious flood potential.
It seems the worst of it will hit about 10-12 Friday night for you guys, it's actually sunny out here right now but in a few short hours we will begin to get it. By 9 PM my time (which is 9AM in Friday morning in NYC) winds will be up to about 50MPH and the heavy rain will have been falling for a few hours. I actually have to work and I get off at 9. Hoping they let us out early but the government is dragging their feet on this.
Barry hope all us well on the other side of the world,,,,,let us know what is happening there,,post pics if possible,,,,,be safe
It is over, my city got really lucky as once it made landfall it went directly SW instead of NW , I'm guessing maybe the flow over the mountains. Worst seemed to hit while I was sleeping. Lets of down trees but never lost power and lots of down signs. Other parts of the island did not fare so well. Not much on the news in terms of deaths or damage and I'll have to wait for the English paper tomorrow to really get an idea but some of the pictures on the news are ridiculous. They got 44 inches of rain in some parts of the mountains and the wind was blowing so hard that there is video of a China Airlines 747 having it's front end being lifted off the ground. I'll try and get some pics up.
This is about a 45 minute scooter ride from me.... absolutely insanity. This is what 4 feet of water in the mountains will do ...
