If this were to hit Florida..it would be a huge annoyance. With the populations that will be hit with this storm, depends what you call catastrophic..as in deaths and stuff? No disrespect towards FL..but the population center up north in the path of this track is unheard of. If not having power for days..even weeks for some..thats a pretty big deal. Saw a few questions and will try to answer a few from WHAT I HEAR..AGAIN..NOT AN EXPERT. I follow all the models and all the expert sites..so take this with a grain of salt..maybe a teaspoon. The problem with this storm compared to other hurricanes is that so many other variables are lining up to make this much worse than the usual major storm that goes up the eastern seaboard. 1. Saturated grounds. So much rain up north and these storms that passed through that the ground will say no way jose very early in the storm to absorb...so basements that could tolerate some water..lawns..that will happen pretty fast with this storm. 2 Storm speed. Most hurricanes that take a track close to this one get absorbed into the jet stream and really pick up speed and come through hard and heavy..but for maybe 7-10 hours tops. This little cold front that just came through would usually continue south and push a storm like this out to sea. This front will stall in the next couple hours and stay stationary and give the hurricane a track to follow..and absorb. The speed of this storm is a real problem because you can probably double the time it will last in your area..there lies the 10+ inches of rain..and very wind conditions. 3. A second front entering from Canada will act as a magnet and pull the storm much further north than they usually go. 4 water temps. They are much higher than normal..especially down south. The storm center is supposed to go over the Chesapeake area where waters..that far north..are in the 80's. 5 Because of all of the above, you do get a storm that is beginning to lose strength..but not in time for those up north to just get a wind driven heavy rain...but a severe tropical storm/cat 1 hurricane. 6. Most important...the size. Tropical storm winds are being felt more than 250 miles from the eye..so if the storm were to shift to the east...portions of eastern pa would still get decent winds...and NJ/NYC..well..you get the picture. Hope that makes sense. Sundayjack: You might want to look into that trip before you make it. It seems to me like you might be chasing the deranged knife carrying gunman will a wiffle ball bat.
I posted this site earlier..this is a tremendous site..has everything you need..radar etc. The page Im posting is the track..which I did not see since this morning. This track when you click the link is the worst track you can imagine..hope it changes. Im scared shit of spiders...not crazy about heights...cry like a little girl if the movie moves me..but weather never scares me..nothing about it. I just bought a 6000 watt generator...so take that for whatever its worth. The link: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_5day.html EDIT: PROMISE TO SHUT UP AFTER THIS. When you click that link, check out the SUNDAY 8AM location of that storm. Thats the key. If that storm is sitting anywhere near there..you have a decent disaster about to strike the northeast. That location is one of the few locations up north where hurricanes can actually get stronger. The waters are insanely warm there.
Interesting entry on Wikipedia of a great mid Atlantic storm that wasn't even a hurricane. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednesday_Storm_of_1962 Then there was the earlier hurricane that decimated Rhods Island, probably the worst hurricane in the Northeast in the last 100 years. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England_Hurricane_of_1938 Hurricane Donna was no slouch, either. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna But Donna was more destructive in the southeast.
Great find BB...Great find. I saw that one yesterday about the great atlantic hurricane. That storm forced them to start naming storms. Last big storm without a name.' Every so often you get the once in a lifetime thingy...this is one of them..IF THE TRACK CONTINUES.
And to confirm what I was talking about in number 6 above..I was actually wrong. I stated tropical storm winds 250 miles from the center of the eye..not correct. From the NHC: IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES.
Trust me Hem..Im with you..but it seems very very doubtful now...this from Dr. Jeff Masters: We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. and more: My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.
Not me if it's not going out to sea then I want it inland as far as possible, already had to deal with the tornado two months ago, don't need a hurricane follow up.
What make the 38 hurricane so awesome is that it did NOT follow the usual pattern of hurricanes as they run north. As noted in the summary there was a freakish combination of weather systems to the northwest and east of it that had the effect of funneling it up at the rate of 50 mph. The net result is that although when it hit it continued to move fast and put down relatively less water, but the SURGE and the retention of Cat 3 winds all the way up into NE showed what could happen if that kind of funnelling effect were to occur. By comparison the 1962 storm can be seen as completely the opposite, yet very destructive. Not even a hurricane, it stayed off the coast for five full high tides as the vernal equinox approached. Comparing the two is like comparing a battering ram with what must have seemed an endless form of torture.
Great analysis BB...You are dead on..two completely different storms. Thats why they are throwing names at this storm to compare it to..but when its all said and done..a bunch of other aspects will lead to what this storm will likely do. Now they are saying a once in 50 year storm. Not sure..but its on path: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/54235/irene-could-bring-the-worst-no.asp
We also had Hurricane Agnes. Gloria was a big deal, too: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gloria
Current radar beginning to show the intensification that has been predicted around this time...shes beginning to get larger around the eye..and that eye should pop out shortly: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html
I was in college when Gloria hit. A buddy of mine sold shirts that said, "I got blown by Gloria - September 1985." Try it. Make a few lira.
The rain is ridiculous right now in Fort Laurderdale. Starting to get some heavy wind gusts as well. The power has flashed a few times at work but that may have more to due with the piss poor power grids down here. The ocean has really whipped up now too. EDIT ...and Sundayjerk can suck it
