So what's next on the forecast, any more snow and by the way, I called the storm at 10 am yesterday, sometimes professional meteorologists need to stop looking at their models and look at where the storm actually is http://forums.theganggreen.com/threads/jays-house-of-weather-n-stuff.62620/page-411#post-3182066 (the forecasters didn't dial down anything, they kept blindly saying 2 feet all the way through)
I assume someone posted this already, but: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-meteorologists-botched-the-blizzard-of-2015/
Jay. Two issues coming for me. My son has an interview Friday in White Plains and will be driving from Ithaca Thursday. What time should he leave ? The second is I have a conference and need to fly out Sunday and return Tuesday. I don't want to get stuck and I don't want to leave my wife if there is a threat of power outages. Ant words of wisdom?
The bold part...on my site of why did I get into weather I state something that I will go to the grave with. I will be long gone...my boys will be long gone..before they ever come up with any gadget..any model...anything that will get weather 100 percent. It just will never happen. It would take me 110 pages to explain why that is but the bottom line is that when several shifts in the atmosphere in Japan take place, it could adjust the location of a Miller B storm center 40 miles off the coast of North Carolina. I see other weather sites complaining about the fact that the EURO model gets so much more money invested into it and we do not spend enough money on our GFS model..blah blah...this is true. For the record...the shitty GFS model had me getting around 6 inches of snow 2 days before the storm and KING EURO had me getting 25 to 30. EURO had NYC getting 40 plus. Many models had NYC getting pounded and all the geeks laughed and ridiculed what IS the worst model....the GFS. I received 6 inches of snow....so that means next time I will trust the GFS...right? Never. Here is what I...and you guys need to remember next time a MILLER B STORM HAPPENS....AND IM PISSED I DIDNT GO WITH IT. A Miller B storm can be trusted in New England...but just where it says the heaviest snow axis will form..where the big numbers will start? IT WILL NOT..it is always wrong....yet these types of Miller Bs come along so infrequently that we all jump on the big numbers. SO REMIND ME NEXT TIME DAMN IT!! Updating site now. Several inches Thursday...Sunday night/ Monday could be significant followed by 2 more real potentials.....and I will list the ones that are Miller Bs! lol. Thanks guys for the kind words....
By Friday morning JWWS, it will be snowing so no perfect time...still, nothing huge..2 to 4? More concerned about your flight OUT on Sunday. What time is that for?
It's at 2:30. I'm more concerned about leaving if there is a threat of power loss. Need to care for the castle.
Right now..doesn't look like a wind involved storm JWWS...and looks more like snow or rain compared to sleet/freezing rain..and that time looks to beat everything..and your return flight is in-between it all..good to go!
Just updated site...models showing a decent thump...not sure if Im buying the high mark yet but 6 could happen..showing 6 to 10...but also showing that enough warm air could get involved for rain. A few models even have it south of us...Im going with 6 to 8 right now.
GFS and Canadian all going big for Sunday night/ Monday. Both models..and the GFS big time..won the last storm by going low...but their reputation had the world and me dismissing them..so...is the GFS on a roll? Do we go with the hot hand. Normally I would say no f'in way. Problem is the model output makes sense..totally. So for now, going with it. Winter Storm Watch (not by the NWS..by me) for Sunday night till afternoon Monday. Snow starts between 9pm and midnight...lets say at the start of the second half or 4th quarter Super Bowl. 7 to 10 inches and a bit higher as you go north...poor Boston area could be looking at over a foot..easily..again.
