Yep...that is the most rain I have ever seen on a future forecast map..it ran out of colors and LI is back to green..which is a foot of rain. NJ is anywhere from 3" very west to over 7 north and east..well hell..you guys can read it. edit: actually after looking at it again..I call bullshit on myself...thats over 5" anywhere in the state..not 3.
Want to make sure no one missed this map..never ever have seen that much rain in a 24 hour period this far north. Ever. Even I say cant be...but this is the NWS...not me. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif Throw in a very conservative 24-45 mph wind and that much rain...the ground is already saturated down deep from a rainy summer...this has nightmare written all over it. Even though I love weather crap...Im pulling for a huge pass on this one.
Not that it makes a whole hell of a lot difference but I think that's taking into account the severe thunderstorms we're supposed to get tomorrow night.
It does G...but even if some areas get 2 inches of rain out of that...the NWS prediction overall is for a half inch of rain "with locally higher amounts in storms" so the number in that equation is less than an inch..like you said..not putting a real dent into whats coming sat night/sunday
Be prepared for the worst. I hate this had to happen. We had our honeymoon in mid-September on Nags Head, and I had anxious momentss and fingers crossed for months leading up to that. We got lucky. If a category 2 hurricane hits, and its unavoidable by this point, even if the eye goes out to sea, you are looking at widespread destruction that could remind you of a war zone afterwards. I hope some miracle can happen before this weekend, but it doesn't look good for your area. Roads closed, no power for a week, no gas, no supplies. Tornadoes splintering off. A local meteorologist pointed out that this storm can easily match the sustained winds far inland of the hurricane called Hugo that cleared a path of destruction through the Charlotte area years ago. All of you better pray this is wrong, but it looks as though it is a decent assessment. Hugo flattened whole forests, I can still take you to places where the land is covered in deadfall still. Over 20 years ago, and you can still see what the storm left behind. Please be safe, and take this very seriously. Its not going to be like anything most of you have ever seen before.
no clue. The one thing history tells us about these maps is some areas will be on..a lot will be off...high or low. Much better to be in the target area this far off because that usually is not where it ends up.
Couldnt agree more Hiker. The width of this storm will have people shocked. This kind of track for a normal storm would leave many people sparred. But this is not a normal storm..nor a normal hurricane. Couldnt agree more.
Even worse news...a more westward trend. The corrections are beginning. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
isnt it possible that the storm will narrow out in the (slightly) cooler waters? Or would that even still leave the storm wide enough for massive destruction.
Reading the local Jersey paper they are comparing it to a 1944 unnamed storm that did serious damage to Asbury Park , LBI and Atlantic City. I grew up 20 minutes from Asbury Park and LBI. Better make sure my mother is prepared because this might be bad.
It might BB..BUT IF THAT ONE ISNT...this new updated model just did. Ok...Im going to quit here because some might think Im exaggerating. So here is the map...really love talking about snowstorms and stuff...this is kind of nuts. Kind of speechless. That would be a disaster from Baltimore to Boston. New Jersey and NYC? Cant even guess. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=139798 Thats around Sunday afternoon.
Holy shit... with the harbor in Baltimore the water is so close to downtown it won't take much for it to flood. They have been talking for years about the "Big One" in California but I've always worried about the "Big One" in the NYC area since I saw one of those Discovery Channel specials on it. I'm assuming this has the potential to be that storm.
Yeah..kind of BB. It would have to be perfect to get what the Discover Channel showed. Getting all that water to come up through the city. If any storm had a chance..this one does. Honestly? Im a real believer in crazy weather. Can honestly say that this really cant be for this area. Not buying out of stubbornness...lol.
Best of luck to you folks, it doesn't look pretty. I hope TGGers reading this thread take heed and BE PREPARED Great work as usual JW
