love the first page of this thread with the Boxing Day Blizz in 2010. Christmas Day that year was memorable for me. Will never forget it. I remember watching the TV forecasts on Christmas Eve and they were all saying an coating to an inch, maybe more on eastern LI, and then I was watching the 0z models that night, and it was one of the best Christmas gifts ever, Blizzard Warning posted for LI on the evening of the 25th as the turkey was in the frier. That was such a magical winter. Nonstop snow and the Jets were in the AFC Title game. Too bad they lost though to Pitt.
ok jay. oct 1st is a big day for me, would love no rain. now accu weather and TWC saying 40% chance, looking at the models i don't see what they are seeing. i know we are 9 days out,should i worry?
Have been away with a mom issue...sorry FJF. The Euro is showing a possible disturbance coming from the south central U.S. but I would not take that seriously right now..not at all. I think we can zero in more on Thursday sir.
That was a great winter for snow lovers JH...sorry I didnt respond earlier...the setup with a snowstorm and an away game with the Jets was a classic fireplace...beer and wine chill day..will never forget that one either. Amazing how you nailed it out there. You guys get the temps...but the true monster blizzards are mostly from West Virginia to Maine....dead on.
Jay, major issues on Thursday, Derek Jeter's last game in New York. Lots of very very expensive tickets have been bought and sold, what are the chances the game can be played on 9/25
hey GG...this from the NWS for the next few days..although it shows a low chance of precip...it doesn't say showers or thunderstorms which leads me to believe its not just a passing front but a small system. Passing fronts don't bother us..systems could be bigger problems so let me just check a few maps..haven't been able to...one second bud. Wednesday Night A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thursday A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thursday Night A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday A slight chance of rain before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
And its NOT a front but a low pressure that will come north to us IF the high pressure giving us these beautiful days gives out and moves off shore by Thursday morning.. This is the actual discussion between NWS and its people...long story short...they are starting to think it COULD be a bit more then previously thought. Not an all out rainstorm...but gusty winds and periods of rain..still..they keep low chances of rain because the EURO model is saying it comes in slower..and more importantly to the south. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. The bolded part is an indication of the system being a bit more then they thought. Cooler temps from precip/cloud cover. Winds pretty gusty too. This, for those attending the game, really needs to be watched. Still...RIGHT NOW, there is nothing be modeled that says a baseball game will not be played. Uncomfortable? Yes....rain on and off and gusty winds? Very possible...still there is enough on the table that could suggest that Thursday night is just a breezy..cool..but only cloudy night at Yankee Stadium and unfortunately this will need tonight's models to see how this will play out with more confidence bud. Lets see what tonight brings...I know..its getting late for ticket decisions but lets see.
Thanks Jay, you're the best. Sounds like it's somewhat in the air but probability leaning towards playable. I'll probably be there no matter what, the cold / rain is only an issue for me if no game is played!
I hear you GG..not problem at all for you bud. The only thing to watch for is that this change in the forecast was pretty dramatic albeit still not a rain out...the thing to watch is one more dramatic change could be a rain event all game long. Lets see tonite if things stay status quo...there will be maybe an uncomfortable game..or get better.
GG..im quoting you to get your attention..ummm...keep an eye on this bud because big changes in the models. Now a coastal storm that might makes its way up north. This could really screw things up big time for Mr. Jeter. Here is the the talk from NWS and then the forecast...went from 20 percent to 70 percent bud. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. URBAN...LOW LYING...AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY REACH BANK FULL...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. ALSO...WITH AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AND A NEW MOON WEDNESDAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE WITH ROUGH SURF FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. A chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday Rain likely, mainly between 7am and 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 64. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday Night A chance of rain, mainly before 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 53. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. NOW THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT maybe it pushes out for game time...but now 1 to 2 inches? That would be a problem...big time. Again...one model run..lets see if it back off tonite.
And that part has come true because the latest models have gone with even more rain...1 to 2 and perhaps 3 inches along the coast. GG...it has fallen apart except for one CRUCIAL thing. The event is being forecasted to end Thursday night but because the low cutoff..well...everything to make this bigger also makes it faster..meaning it should end in the afternoon. Is that enough to let the game go for the night time? I would think that even with all the rain that will be predicted by our local weather people come tomorrow morning, the game goes on and it might even be decent. We shall see.
Fast and furious, let most of it blow out by late afternoon and it'll all work out. Even it's only light rain left behind we should be good to go
That should be the case and clear out by game time...I would guess late afternoon. This is a true noreaster..which is very unusual for this time of the year...very...and could be a signal for an early arrival for winter. In the past remember guys..trends..and the first trend to a shitty winter is sleet and snow..rain changing to snow as early as Thanksgiving and early December. Forget the Halloween storms etc..they can happen but freaks of nature. This winter might be easy to read just by what happens in the next 60 days. Very long term is looking at the colder then normal air arriving early which has already begun..but followed by a perhaps warmer then normal part of October...and then boom...November turns ugly late with temps first. Hope Im wrong..but the signals are all over the place for a crappy winter...temps are guaranteed...now the question is very cold and dry or very cold and snowy.
Yeah..but around here you have to be very careful about your love for snow..except if you are CBG who could give 2 craps about what anyone else feels...lol. A few have a real fear of the white stuff. Soooooo.....we tread lightly with stuff like "sorry to say" or "this really sucks but...."
Yeah GG...but there is no way that game gets cancelled. For the obvious reasons and also...just not buying this storm and length. Really believe no later then 4pm all is done and when it clears out..it will clear out in a big way with no leftovers. Lets see tomorrow morning if there are any changes. NWS still calling for 60 percent chance of rain tomorrow night....doubt it very much: Overnight A chance of rain, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 56. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 64. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain likely, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 54. North wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
