Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

I have followed several weather guys that tried the forum part Brook and it ends up with 80% of people that just come on and trash the person...lol..its brutal..and then they just stop it. Here? It has amazed me that there has been very little of that. I think its because I try to be very honest about when a mistake is made. I hope that's the reason.

I will also say that on those websites these guys just beat their chest on every storm..even when they are wrong somehow? Its amazing...and they are wrong a lot. Maybe there has been less of that here because I try to help out each person and because of that..there has been MUCH less then anything I have seen? I don't know.

One thing I have seen is that to build those sites to get big hits you really have to pound your chest on when you are right..almost to the point of making yourself sick. Im going to try not to do that at all. It seems to have worked here so who knows.

Thanks for the nice words and might try that in the beginning.

Long range models for July 4th weekend are all agreeing in a great great weekend with highs in the upper 70's! We saw how the long range models were a tad off this past weekend so lets see if that stays the same.

 

the kids animation is an interesting idea..very CBG.

Then you have my boys...who laugh at me everytime I use the phrase thundersnow. I even showed them on youtube that its a real thing and they still laugh. A few years back..a big snowstorm and the sky lit up...and then you could hear a boom...I came running upstairs from my dungeon and just stood in the room and starred at my wife and my 2 boys and they looked back at me....the silence lasted for 30 seconds. I then said "ok...did you hear that..did you see the flash?" HUH?

Its a damn conspiracy what happens in my house. One storm when we had a few people on here, I brought my son over and said..want to see something funny? Check out how many people are checking out this thread.

My son responded that a friend of his had over 100,000 views on a youtube video and walked away.

F them.

Thanks for your input guys..will think about it. Bottom line is we will always have fun and post here too. This is our home forever.

 

something to keep an eye on that could really ruin the 4th of July. Storm system will form just off the coast? or just inland. Depending where the system forms will determine if the system becomes tropical in nature.

Regardless, latest models have the storm moving up the coast slowly and possibly bringing on and off thunderstorms and showers for a good part of pre 4th and post 4th.

Still a few days away but this could be a real pain in the ass for 4th of July time frame and even bring heavy rain and wind. Hopefully it stays inland a bit but that wouldn't keep us away from the rain.

 

heat wave on Wednesday followed by who knows..but a tropical system looks like it will form and cause problems for at least the outer banks. How far north is the big question but right now, it seems that it will cause showers and thunderstorms and some riptides. Could really screw up end of week.

 

on radar FJF its beginning to get a spin to it. While many NWS locations are doubting a name...I cant see how its not named. In fact, several models have it briefly going from tropical to hurricane force...a 1 at tops but you never know.

The models all show a tough time getting its act together the next 2 days but then things become favorable...so it will sit there and spin until things start to set up..and I think it will.

Good news up north is there will be blocking from MD south so right now, looks to keep the heavier stuff south..but that can change.

 

jwws...you should be fine bud. All models show the storm grazing NC and then starting a northeast track out to sea.

I would say by Friday...some left over showers maybe but all models are showing a beautiful weekend up here with cooler temps...upper 70s lower 80s..you should be fine!

 

less then 5 percent right now Brook. All models agree that it stays off the coast after NC and shoots quickly out to sea. In fact most of the rain that we get from it before the weekend will be from the front that shoots through and pushes this thing out to sea.

Other then some riptides on July4th, Jersey coast should be ok by the weekend.

CBG...that is correct sir!

 

latest models are a bit west...and this is a trend that needs to be watched. Lets just gets something out there..this is not a Sandy no matter where it tracks...not even close...worse case scenario for Jersey/NY/Conn shores would be large waves..riptides...minor beach erosion and heavy rain. That is worst case. Best case is riptides...on and off heavy showers/thunderstorms/ above average waves..and there might be some beach closings because of the riptides.

More west track is bad...more east track is good. Outer Banks looks like landfall at the moment and if the timing stays correct....the tropical storm will become a Cat 1 hurricane by this time tomorrow.