Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Now, Im not saying I disagree with that Marshall..but it has very little model support. Strictly models, you guys are 2 to 5 maybe. Now, the EURO keeps putting down bigger amounts. So...lets see tonight's runs.

 

Yes..more east means less damage to the beaches. Now, this thing is supposed to explode off the coast of Conn so the Jersey beaches RIGTH NOW...are safe..as is L.I. and even Conn.

Thats where Im having a problem buying that this doesnt explode more south..and I hope Im wrong on that. Your post is totally correct.

70s!!...its coming guys and girls..its coming..faster then you think.

 

There is so little model agreement and there is a reason for this. Most models have a double barrel low..with one closer to the coast..and one that just takes off east and was presumed to be the major low. Now, there is this theory that the models are being confused by this setup..and some feel its the low closer to the coast that could be the major player.

There is no real backup to this theory only that there are two lows...but here is what we know for a fact with the models.

1. The American models want to take this well off shore. If that happens, only the most east places..eastern tip of L.I. and Cape Cod would get just decent snows. On Wednesday, when the storm is well out to sea..it will be so wound up and powerful that even down in the NYC metro area, winds will be gusting over 40.

2. The Euro keeps the center more west...bringing 2 to 4 for the NYC metro....4 to 6 over central L.I. 6 TO 8 over eastern L.I. and the same over eastern Conn. Up towards Mass, as MARSHALL stated, Boston could get 6 to 8..and as you get closer to Cape Cod, they could get over a foot with blizzard conditions.

3. The players will enter the field tomorrow morning so the models might be able to better grasp the setup.

4. If this was just your normal winter/spring storm, I wouldnt be paying much attention to it...but when you have a lower pressure...any low thats reading gets below 980..you pay attention..and this is modeled to get down below 960 and a few models closer to 950...unheard of.

With all that said, there is no real information out there to say that NYC area could get heavy snow...but only because of how powerful this storm will be..it should be watched.

So...not until Monday afternoon..only 24 hours before the event will many know what they will PROBABLY get.

 

hmm..FM...I cant remember if it was wrong. Easy to say they were all wrong 2 storms back. Its such a confusing setup but todays runs are crucial for L.I. Crucial. If you go by todays model runs it looks like 3-6 across western/central...its Eastern L.I. that is a problem. Now the good news FOR NOW..and I keep emphazing FOR NOW because one change in a run could mean a huge change, is that it continues to show the major phasing..the storm bombing out...directly east of L.I. which would be good news and not allow the major beach erosion that far south.

To the north? Cape Cod? They might be in for a game changing storm. Even farther north...Nova Scotia...they will get close to a hurricane with heavy snow. Thats how strong this storm will become. Record breaker easily...checking model runs now.

 

all trended west..and if you look at all the models for agreement..here are the areas of concern.

The Jersey shore..and I mean the shore...20 miles inland are just several inches of snow...a slight shift east and even the jersey shore is ok...but it has to be watched.

Eastern L.I....Really close to a major problem
Cape Cod to just east of Boston
Maine coast? wow...those beaches will have a tough time getting going this summer up there.

Anyone else west of that needs to keep an eye out but looks ok right now..OK means a general 1 to 4" snow fall...from west to east. I need to see todays EURO go one way or another..and then we can start to get an idea who needs to be on the lookout.

Regardless, this is a record breaking storm that will be ok for mostly everyone because of around 150 miles off the coast...which is amazing because the models have had that range now for 5 days..now my problem is that we have seen the models lock on before and then boom...24/48 hours before it happens something changes. While all the models have brought the eye/center of the storm more closer to the coast, that does not translate with the precip. Will it in future runs?

Need to see todays EURO.

 

Oh..and as far as snow, generally speaking those that are out of harms way with the damaging part of the storm will get probably in a range of 2 to 4 inches overnight Tuesday and Wednesday morning..followed by very gusty wings...20 to 30 steady and gusts over 40.

 

Just came out FM..and again..the center is a bit closer..but still we SHOULD be ok.

Let me clarify my hesitance in just calling this game over. If this was a storm that could be 4 to 8 but right now its off the coast, you guys have seen in the past, I just like to say I doubt it..move on.

Here is why I hesitate...and lets face it...its just several watching thiss Im sure but for storm to bomb out...bombogenisis, it needs to drop 24 millabars in 24 hours. Some huge storms have dropped a bit less then that..some have dropped more. This storm by many model accounts is supposed to drop DOUBLE that...some have it dropping 48 millarbars in 24 hours. So you have a storm off the coast of N.C thats at around 998..and it drops to 950 off the coast of Nova Scotia. Unheard of.

So the bottom line is right now, most area will get a dusting to around 4 or 5 inches of snow followed by very very windy conditions. Winds stead at 20 to 30 with gusts close to 50. Thats it. Thats what the models show...but they also show a fight between two centers that become 1..and the 1 that wins is the more east center. What if the more west center wins? Huge changes...and the reason its hard to dismiss.

Here is the important part because Im sure we will have several smart ass posters that come on questioning where the snow is. IF THE STORM tracks just 50 miles east, many will get a dusting..some will get nothing...eastern L.I. might only get 4 to 6. So there is a huge chance that besides very very gusty winds, not much comes from it.

For me..who loves to follow weather...I will be tracking this the whole night and day just to watch, albeit over the ocean, one of the strongest storms to every sit out over the Atlantic. Only Sandy would rival this storm in terms of strength.

So yes...safe now..maybe 1 to 4...but anyone that cares...just check in tonight around 11pm to confirm. 70 DEGREES NEXT WEEK...and Jaywayne is out of here!!!!

 

and yes..you are correct FM..the EURO did have it more north...and the GFS had it over north jersey for almost a week before 48 hours before the storm bringing it south by 200 miles. You are correct.

Still..the EURO is the model of choice everytime. Its about 75% on this year..and for that model its poor.

 

Got you covered in the post CBG...exact amounts are a tough call but easy to say closer to the coast has a higher chance of snow.